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US Refining Indicators Weaken in June as Crack Spreads Soften, Q2 Gains Hold, TPH Energy Says

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US refining margins have softened heading into the end of the second quarter, pressured by falling gasoline and diesel cracks following progress on a peace deal between the US and Iran, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.

TPH analysts said company-specific refining indicators are trading down by $5 to $11 per barrel month-to-date in June, reflecting a broader cooling in energy markets.

Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that while the geopolitical developments have weighed on product cracks, the impact across the sector has been uneven.

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has demonstrated the most resilience among the group, with its refining indicator down $4.94 per barrel month-to-date.

TPH said that the Singapore market, a key benchmark, has declined slightly and remains well above its five-year average, while falling crude prices have provided a tailwind for asphalt indicators.

The bank said that large-cap refiners show a more mixed picture. Phillips 66 (PSX) is down $7.36/bbl month-on-month but is seen benefiting from potential derivative gains linked to falling crude prices.

Valero Energy (VLO) has declined by $7.50/bbl, with strength in Gulf Coast diesel partially offsetting the narrowing of crude differentials.

HF Sinclair (DINO) is down $8.03/bbl amid weakness in West Coast and Rockies cracks, though improved Southwest markets partly cushion the impact.

Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shows the steepest monthly decline at $10.85/bbl, driven by softness in Midcontinent refining margins.

However, despite the monthly weakness, TPH still expects strong quarter-to-date performance across the sector.

Phillips 66 leads gains at $15.84/bbl, followed by Par Pacific at $15.03/bbl, Marathon Petroleum at $13.39/bbl, Valero Energy at $11.77/bbl, and HF Sinclair at $11.13/bbl.

Price: $50.94, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.22%

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