$SU

TPH Sees Oil Sands Stocks Unfazed by Venezuela Headlines, Keeps Outlook Unchanged

Oil sands stocks are expected to hold steady despite headlines from Venezuela, with demand, export capacity, and stock positioning shaping the outlook, Jeoffrey Lambujon, an analyst at TPH Energy Research, said in a Thursday note.Recent Venezuela headlines carry more substance than January speculation, but TPH sees headline risk outweighing fundamental risk as producers maintain medium-term capital plans.Channel checks across TPH's coverage found no expected changes to capital plans despite stronger-than-expected Venezuela volumes this year.TPH sees Petroleum Administration for Defense District 2 demand for Canadian heavy crude as key for Oil Sands producers.Lambujon said he expectes to see PADD 3 displacement as a smaller concern, with the impact ultimately dependent on Venezuela-side execution.The trilateral memorandum of understanding remains the key near-term development, with definitive agreements targeted by Nov. 15, when commitments would become binding.The firm expects Oil Sands producers to seek more egress capacity, while Venezuela's development could increase interest in westbound routes due to better economics than southbound options.Post-war Asian demand will remain important as producers assess export options and their longer-term appeal, TPH said.Oil sands stocks have gained 4% since Venezuela headlines ended last week, broadly matching TPH's global international oil company and North American upstream coverage.TPH said the recent re-escalation in the Middle East has more than offset Oil Sands stock gains in the short term, while Permian headlines reinforce the sector's longer-term appeal to North American oil.TPH kept its positioning unchanged, with Suncor Energy (SU) and Cenovus Energy (CVE) as top picks while watching Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) for potential Q3 strength from Syncrude premiums.Price: $68.76, Change: $+0.37, Percent Change: +0.54%

Morgan Stanley Upgrades Suncor Energy to Overweight From Equal Weight

Suncor Energy (SU) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of CA$102, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $68.95, Change: $+1.27, Percent Change: +1.87%

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Gain Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were higher late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 1.6% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) up 1.5%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was climbing 3.8%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was shedding 0.6%.In geopolitical news, Iran and Oman are reportedly close to finalizing a framework regarding the Strait of Hormuz. But US and Israeli ships would be blocked from moving through the strategic waterway, Iranian state news outlet Fars reported Thursday, according to CNBC.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.1% to $77.54 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract added 4.1% to $82.68 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 2% to $2.64 per 1 million BTU.In sector news, US natural gas stocks rose by 33 billion cubic feet in the week ended July 31, above the 30 billion increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg and following an increase of 28 billion cubic feet in the previous week.In corporate news, BP (BP) has agreed to acquire Woodside Energy's (WDS) 70% stake in the Calypso gas project in Trinidad and Tobago. Following the close of the deal, BP will own 100% of the early-stage, deepwater natural gas project and will assume operatorship, it said. BP shares rose 2.7%, and Woodside added 3.2%.SLB (SLB) and Equinor (EQNR) signed a multiyear agreement for reservoir stimulation services across the Norwegian Continental Shelf, including a major upgrade of the MV Island Captain well stimulation vessel, the companies said Thursday. SLB shares rose 3.6%, and Equinor added 3.5%.ConocoPhillips (COP) shares rose 1.6% after it reported higher Q2 adjusted earnings and revenue. The company also said Chief Financial Officer Andy O'Brien will succeed Ryan Lance as president and chief executive officer, effective Sept. 1.Suncor Energy (SU) said Thursday its Chief Executive Officer Rich Kruger will move to the executive vice chair role in April 2027. Executive Vice President Upstream Peter Zebedee will succeed Kruger following a board-led succession process, the company said. The company also said Zebedee will become CFO and president on Sept. 14, overseeing all non-operating functions before assuming the CEO role in 2027. Suncor shares were down 2.3%.

Sector Update: Energy

Energy stocks were higher late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index rising 1.6% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) up 1.5%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was climbing 3.8%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was shedding 0.6%.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 3.1% to $77.54 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract added 4.1% to $82.68 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 2% to $2.64 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Suncor Energy (SU) said Thursday its Chief Executive Officer Rich Kruger will move to the executive vice chair role in April 2027. Executive Vice President Upstream Peter Zebedee will succeed Kruger following a board-led succession process, the company said. The company also said Zebedee will become CFO and president on Sept. 14, overseeing all non-operating functions before assuming the CEO role in 2027. Suncor shares were down 2.4%.

Suncor Energy CEO Rich Kruger to Assume Executive Vice Chair Role; Peter Zebedee to Succeed as Chief Executive

Suncor Energy (SU) said Thursday its Chief Executive Officer Rich Kruger will transition to the executive vice chair role in April 2027.Executive Vice President Upstream Peter Zebedee will succeed Kruger following a board-led succession process, the company said.The company also said Zebedee will become chief financial officer and president on Sept. 14, overseeing all non-operating functions before assuming the CEO role in 2027.Former CFO Troy Little left the company, it added.

Suncor CEO Rich Kruger to Become Executive Vice Chair in April 2027

Suncor Beats Q2 Cash Flow Estimates, Boosts Share Buybacks as Debt Falls, TPH Says

Suncor Energy (SU) posted stronger-than-expected Q2 cash flow, buoyed by robust upstream production and lower capital spending, allowing the energy firm to accelerate debt reduction and increase its share repurchase program, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Wednesday.Suncor's adjusted funds from operations came in at CA$5.33 billion ($3.80 billion), ahead of the firm's estimate of CA$5.25 billion, while adjusted cash flow per share reached CA$4.52, topping both TPH's forecast of CA$4.45 and the broader market consensus of CA$4.35.Jeoffrey Lambujon, analyst at TPH Energy, said that the stronger cash generation was driven by Suncor's upstream business, where higher oil sands production and improved product mix offset weaker downstream margin capture.Oil sands operations generated AFFO of CA$3.82 billion, above TPH's estimate of CA$3.76 billion, while exploration and production contributed CA$652 million, exceeding expectations of CA$579 million.TPH said the outperformance reflected stronger-than-expected production volumes and an earlier-than-anticipated completion of maintenance at the Firebag oil sands facility.Total production averaged 761,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day, above TPH's forecast of 755,000 boe/d and broadly in line with market expectations. Oil sands production averaged 690,000 barrels per day, also ahead of estimates.Downstream earnings were below TPH forecasts despite stronger refinery throughput of 471,000 b/d and a CA$373 million inventory gain, as refining margin capture remained weaker than expected.Capital spending excluding capitalized interest totaled CA$1.31 billion, below TPH's estimate of CA$1.52 billion and consensus expectations of CA$1.50 billion, contributing to stronger free cash flow generation.Lambujon said the stronger cash flow enabled Suncor to reduce net debt by CA$2.4 billion during the quarter to CA$4.5 billion, leaving leverage at about 0.3 times net debt-to-AFFO.The company also increased its monthly share buyback pace to CA$500 million from CA$350 million beginning in August. TPH now projects Suncor will repurchase about CA$4.7 billion of shares during 2026.Suncor returned CA$1.76 billion to shareholders during the quarter through CA$1.05 billion of share repurchases and its unchanged quarterly base dividend of CA$0.60 per share.

Suncor Energy Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise

Suncor Energy (SU) reported Q2 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of 3.23 Canadian dollars ($2.30) per share, up from CA$0.71 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected CA$3.04.Gross revenue in the three months ended June 30 rose to CA$19 billion from CA$12.75 billion a year earlier.Suncor shares rose 1.2% in after-hours trading.

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q2 Gross Revenue C$19.01 Billion

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q2 Adjusted EPS CA$3.23, vs. FactSet Est of CA$3.04

Falling Oil, Energy Stocks Create Opportunity for Longer-Term Investment, RBC Says

The cooling of tensions between the US and Iran has prompted a selloff in oil and also energy stocks, but with lasting peace still not secured, there are opportunities for investors with a longer-term view, RBC Capital Markets said on Thursday.Oil producers in Canada will be shielded to an extent from falling prices thanks to price-sensitive royalty structures and a roughly 5% weakening of the country's dollar since early May.The note said that when the Canadian dollar falls in price by one US cent, that alone can offset a $1 drop in WTI for Canadian light and WCS prices.Among Canadian energy stocks, RBC said it favors oil and condensate-focused producers with strong execution capability, strong balance sheets and capital discipline.RBC says that the likelihood of "further military flareups" in the Middle East, including Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon, could prompt more investment to bolster energy security among both oil producer and consumer countries.It highlighted Suncor Energy (SU), Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ), PrairieSky Royalty and Ovintiv (OVV), as examples of such companies, with an outperform rating on all four.

Cenovus' Foster Creek, Christina Lake Lead May Oil Sands Performance, TPH Energy Says

May production estimates pointed to strong performance at Cenovus' (CVE) Foster Creek and Christina Lake assets, while other major oil sands operations produced mixed results, TPH Energy said in a Thursday note.TPH Energy estimated combined production at Foster Creek and Christina Lake averaged about 603,000 barrels per day in May, lifting the quarter-to-date average to about 602,000 b/d, above its second-quarter forecast of 576,000 b/d.Foster Creek increased about 8,000 b/d from April to roughly 223,000 b/d, while Christina Lake added about 13,000 b/d to 379,000 b/d.Sunrise also rose about 6,000 b/d, lifting its quarter-to-date average to about 65,000 b/d versus TPH Energy's 60,000 b/d estimate.Imperial Oil's Cold Lake production declined about 9,000 b/d from April to an estimated 142,000 b/d. Its quarter-to-date average reached about 147,000 b/d, below TPH Energy's second-quarter forecast of 156,000 b/d.Suncor Energy's (SU) Firebag production fell about 111,000 b/d to roughly 105,000 b/d ahead of a planned turnaround.However, its quarter-to-date average remained at about 161,000 b/d, slightly above TPH Energy's 159,000 b/d estimate, while MacKay River averaged about 36,000 b/d versus the firm's 35,000 b/d forecast.Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) posted mixed operating results. Kirby increased about 2,000 b/d to 60,000 b/d, lifting its quarter-to-date average to about 59,000 b/d compared with TPH Energy's 53,000 b/d forecast.Primrose Wolf Lake rose about 1,000 b/d to 74,000 b/d but stayed below the firm's 91,000 b/d outlook, while Jackfish rebounded about 30,000 b/d to 145,000 b/d, bringing its quarter-to-date average to about 130,000 b/d versus the projected 132,000 b/d.Price: $24.58, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.45%

Market Chatter: Small Fire Contained at Suncor's Sarnia, Ontario Refinery

Suncor Energy's (SU) 85,000-barrel-per-day refinery in Sarnia, Ontario, experienced a small fire on Friday, Reuters reported, citing a community alert.The alert reportedly said the situation was quickly brought under control, with no indication of a broader impact reported.Regulatory authorities and relevant stakeholders were notified following the incident.Suncor did not immediately respond to a request for comment from.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Fall Late Afternoon

Energy stocks declined late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) each shedding 1.8%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index slumped 5%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index advanced 0.6%.In sector news, skirmishes continued overnight between Hezbollah and Israel in southern Lebanon after the Iran-backed militant group rejected a US-brokered proposal aimed at securing a broader truce, Bloomberg reported.US President Donald Trump said he would meet with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei if a deal is finalized to end the US-Iran war.West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 3% to $90.28 a barrel, and global benchmark Brent declined 2.2% to $92.90 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures dropped 3.6% to $3.22 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Suncor Energy (SU) shares were down 4.8% in Friday afternoon trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to neutral from buy and raised its price target to CA$100 ($71.70) from CA$98.56.Duke Energy (DUK) said Friday it secured up to a $61.8 million grant from the US Department of Energy to support critical upgrades for its coal-fired power plants in Kentucky and North Carolina. Duke Energy shares rose 2.1%.StealthGas (GASS) shares rose 4.3% in Friday trading after the company's Q1 revenue beat Street consensus.NextNRG (NXXT) on Friday reported preliminary revenue of $9.3 million in May, up from $6.6 million a year earlier. NextNRG shares fell 15%.

Suncor Energy Shares Fall After Goldman Sachs Downgrade

Suncor Energy (SU) shares were down 4.3% in Friday afternoon trading after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company to neutral from buy and raised its price target to CA$100 ($71.70) from CA$98.56.Trading volume stood at over 2.4 million shares compared with a daily average of about 4.4 million shares.Price: $62.67, Change: $-2.80, Percent Change: -4.28%

Goldman Sachs Downgrades Suncor Energy to Neutral From Buy, Raises Price Target to CA$100 From CA$98.56

Suncor Energy (SU) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of CA$102, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

Suncor Energy Benefits From Downstream Strength, Lower Cash Flow Volatility, RBC Says

Suncor Energy (SU) is expected to deliver improved operating and financial performance supported by its integrated downstream business and lower cash flow volatility, RBC said in a note Tuesday.The analysts said the main highlight from their discussions with management was the company's shift in strategy from "value over volume" to "value and volume," which has become a key part of the downstream turnaround at Suncor. This is reflected in a 10% refinery capacity re-rating to 511,000 barrels per day in March.Suncor Energy's downstream segment plays both an offensive and defensive role within its integrated business. It reduces exposure to Western Canadian Select price spreads, dampens free funds flow volatility, and provides financial diversification, the analysts added.Looking ahead, refining and marketing pre-tax FFO is estimated at $7.7 billion in 2026 under the base case, or about one-third of total corporate FFO, amid geopolitical uncertainty, including the Iran war, according to the note.RBC reaffirmed its outperform rating and price target of CA$100 ($72.43) on Suncor.Price: $66.32, Change: $-1.03, Percent Change: -1.52%

Canadian Oil Sands Output Mixed as Cenovus, Suncor Track Ahead of Estimates, TPH Says

Canadian oil sands producers showed a mixed but broadly firm production profile in April, with several major operators tracking ahead of Q2 expectations, according to TPH Energy strategists on Tuesday.Cenovus Energy (CVE) led the group, with combined Foster Creek and Christina Lake volumes averaging about 600 million barrels per day in April, above the TPH Q2 estimate of 576 million b/d.Jeoffrey Lambujon, analyst at TPH Energy, said that the energy firm's key assets, Foster Creek and Christina Lake, rose over the month by about 7 million b/d to about 215 million b/d and 366 million b/d, respectively.The company's Sunrise project also strengthened, increasing about 8 million b/d over the month to a quarter-to-date average of 62 million b/d, ahead of the modeled 60 million b/d.TPH said Suncor Energy (SU) showed an uneven trend ahead of planned maintenance. The energy firm's Firebag operations declined, falling about 24 million b/d over the month to 216 million b/d, well above TPH's Q2 estimate of 159 million b/d, while MacKay River edged higher by 2 million b/d to 35 million b/d, broadly in line with expectations.Lambujon said the mixed performance suggests volatility ahead of turnaround activity.Imperial Oil saw Cold Lake volumes ease by about 6 million b/d over the month to an estimated 151 million b/d, below TPH's Q2 forecast of 156 million b/d.The softness points to modest operational drag versus expectations in the in-situ segment, Lambujon said.Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) delivered a more balanced performance, with Kirby projects flat over the month at a quarterly average of about 58 million b/d, ahead of the 53 million b/d TPH estimate.The company's Primrose Wolf Lake assets edged lower by 1 million b/d to 73 million b/d. However, it remained below the modeled 91 million b/d for the quarter. Jackfish was the weakest spot, falling 19 million b/d over the month to 115 million b/d, below the 132 million b/d forecast.Overall, TPH said the data points to resilience in key FCCL and select in-situ assets. However, performance dispersion remains pronounced across operators and individual projects as the sector moves deeper into Q2.Price: $29.29, Change: $-0.77, Percent Change: -2.55%

US Gasoline Hits Highest Memorial Day Level Since 2022 on Supply Shocks, EIA Says

US gasoline prices climbed to the highest level for the Memorial Day holiday since 2022 as the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz drove up crude prices and tightened global fuel supplies, the Energy Information Administration said on Friday.The EIA said the national average price for regular gasoline reached $4.49 per gallon on May 18, up 42% from a year earlier and marking the highest level for the Monday before Memorial Day weekend since Russia's invasion of Ukraine disrupted oil markets three years ago.Rising crude prices, which typically account for about half of retail gasoline costs, have been the biggest driver behind the increase since February.The agency said global crude markets have been rattled by supply disruptions linked to the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint for oil shipments.Regional factors, including refinery outages, fuel specifications, and taxes, are also amplifying price disparities across the country.The Midwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted some of the steepest increases after refinery maintenance and outages constrained fuel supplies. Midwest gasoline prices averaged $4.40/gal on May 18, up 45% from a year earlier, while Rocky Mountain prices rose 47% to $4.59/gal.The EIA said several large refineries in the Midwest have been affected in recent weeks, including Phillips 66's (PSX) Wood River refinery in Illinois and Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) Robinson refinery, both of which were undergoing maintenance.BP's (BP) Whiting refinery in Indiana also experienced a temporary outage following a power disruption. Suncor Energy's (SU) Commerce City refinery in Colorado suffered an unplanned shutdown after a power outage during maintenance work.On the West Coast, where gasoline prices are typically the nation's highest because of stricter fuel standards, limited pipeline connectivity and higher state taxes, prices averaged $5.61/gal, up 31% from a year earlier.California's unique fuel specifications, which make gasoline more expensive to produce, have continued to weigh on the region, according to the EIA. Imports into the West Coast have also risen as refining capacity in the region declines.The Gulf Coast retained the country's cheapest gasoline prices, averaging $3.95/gal, benefiting from its concentration of refining capacity and relatively low fuel taxes. The East Coast, the nation's largest gasoline-consuming region, averaged $4.31/gal.The EIA said the US has rolled out several emergency measures to ease fuel market pressures.The government is releasing crude from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve in coordination with the International Energy Agency, temporarily allowing nationwide sales of E15 gasoline and issuing waivers under the Jones Act to facilitate fuel shipments between US ports.Federal regulators have also relaxed enforcement of summer-grade gasoline standards. Despite the higher prices, holiday travel demand remains resilient.The American Automobile Association estimates 39.1 million Americans will travel by car over the Memorial Day weekend, in line with last year.Price: $67.65, Change: $-0.08, Percent Change: -0.12%

Suncor Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Following Q1 Results; Price Target at C$105.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target following first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner."Suncor posted Q1 beats across the board, with downstream throughput/product sales primarily driving better AFFO vs. consensus, with better-than-expected capex further supporting a clean FCF beat. Headline Q1 metrics included beats on AFFO/shr (C$3.39 vs. TPHe/Street C$3.34/3.29) and capex (C$1.08B excl. capitalized interest vs. TPHe/Street C$1.19B/1.22B), which together drove the beat on FCF (C$2.91B vs. TPHe/Street C$2.76B/$2.69B). The beat vs. our model on AFFO owed mainly to much greater Downstream performance with 498mbpd throughput coming in well north of TPHe/Street 477/472, representing 97% utilization on the newly rerated 511mbpd nameplate capacity; C$1.98B AFFO was slightly above TPHe C$1.87B but well north of Street C$1.61B. On Upstream ops, 875mbopd came in modestly below our model but also well above Street, comparing to TPHe/Street 880/868, with the delta vs. TPHe driven by Oil Sands production of 799mbopd vs. TPHe 805, with Syncrude maintenance offsetting record Fort Hills; C$2.89B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street C$2.94B/C$2.83B. E&P was in-line on volumes vs. our model but again well north of Street, at 76mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 75/62; C$0.56B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street $0.41B/C$0.35B," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.Price: $88.79, Change: $-6.26, Percent Change: -6.59%