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Canadian Oil Sands Output Mixed as Cenovus, Suncor Track Ahead of Estimates, TPH Says

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Canadian oil sands producers showed a mixed but broadly firm production profile in April, with several major operators tracking ahead of Q2 expectations, according to TPH Energy strategists on Tuesday.

Cenovus Energy (CVE) led the group, with combined Foster Creek and Christina Lake volumes averaging about 600 million barrels per day in April, above the TPH Q2 estimate of 576 million b/d.

Jeoffrey Lambujon, analyst at TPH Energy, said that the energy firm's key assets, Foster Creek and Christina Lake, rose over the month by about 7 million b/d to about 215 million b/d and 366 million b/d, respectively.

The company's Sunrise project also strengthened, increasing about 8 million b/d over the month to a quarter-to-date average of 62 million b/d, ahead of the modeled 60 million b/d.

TPH said Suncor Energy (SU) showed an uneven trend ahead of planned maintenance. The energy firm's Firebag operations declined, falling about 24 million b/d over the month to 216 million b/d, well above TPH's Q2 estimate of 159 million b/d, while MacKay River edged higher by 2 million b/d to 35 million b/d, broadly in line with expectations.

Lambujon said the mixed performance suggests volatility ahead of turnaround activity.

Imperial Oil saw Cold Lake volumes ease by about 6 million b/d over the month to an estimated 151 million b/d, below TPH's Q2 forecast of 156 million b/d.

The softness points to modest operational drag versus expectations in the in-situ segment, Lambujon said.

Canadian Natural Resources (CNQ) delivered a more balanced performance, with Kirby projects flat over the month at a quarterly average of about 58 million b/d, ahead of the 53 million b/d TPH estimate.

The company's Primrose Wolf Lake assets edged lower by 1 million b/d to 73 million b/d. However, it remained below the modeled 91 million b/d for the quarter. Jackfish was the weakest spot, falling 19 million b/d over the month to 115 million b/d, below the 132 million b/d forecast.

Overall, TPH said the data points to resilience in key FCCL and select in-situ assets. However, performance dispersion remains pronounced across operators and individual projects as the sector moves deeper into Q2.

Price: $29.29, Change: $-0.77, Percent Change: -2.55%

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