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Commodities

Suncor Energy Posts Record Q1 Upstream, Downstream Operating Results

Canadian energy company Suncor Energy (SU) Tuesday reported new Q1 records for upstream production and refining throughput.For the quarter ended March 31, upstream output totaled 875,200 barrels per day, up from the 853,200 b/d posted in the year-ago period and a new record for the quarter.Oil sands production during the quarter totaled 798,800 b/d, compared with 790,000 b/d a year earlier, with quarterly output at Fort Hills reaching a record high, the company said.The exploration and production segment contributed 76,400 b/d output, higher than the previous year's 62,300 b/d, due to "strong production at all assets," according to Suncor.Consequently, upstream sales grew year over year to 872,100 b/d from 828,400 b/d.In the downstream segment, crude oil processing reached a Q1 record of 497,800 b/d, higher than the prior year's 482,700 b/d, driven by capacity additions from debottlenecking activities and sustained strong operating performance, the company said.Capacity additions led to a 10% increase in refining network nameplate capacity to 511,000 b/d as of Jan. 1. With this new nameplate capacity, refinery utilization averaged 97% in Q1, up from the prior year's 94%, according to the report.The company also said that its refined product sales grew to a quarterly record of 680,900 b/d, relative to 604,900 b/d a year earlier, reflecting higher refinery production.Suncor said it achieved strong sales performance as it "capitalized on global export sales opportunities while continuing to deliver more domestic volumes through retail growth and strategic partnerships."

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Research

Research Alert: CFRA Maintained Buy Rating On Suncor Energy Inc. As Free Funds Flows Grows 53%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We maintain our 4-STARS (Buy) rating and boost our target price to CAD103. This reflects a 8.0x EBITDA multiple and 18.0x earnings multiple based on our 2027 projections. We increased the EBITDA multiple in tandem with the industry multiple to reflect superior operational execution. The story is largely unchanged since the 2026 Investor Day, as Q1 proved to be another strong quarter of cash flow generation and value return. Upstream production reached 875.2k bbl/d, up 2.6% Y/Y. Refining throughput reached 497.8k bbl/d at 97% utilization, while refined product sales increased 13% to 680.9k bbl/d. Free funds flow grew 53% to CAD2.91B. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through CAD825M in share repurchases and over CAD700M in dividends. We maintained our 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts of CAD6.97 and CAD5.39, respectively.

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Research

Research Alert: Su Maintained Buy As Free Funds Flows Grows 53%: Tp $75

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We maintain our 4-STARS (Buy) rating and boost our target price to CAD103. This reflects a 8.0x EBITDA multiple and 18.0x earnings multiple based on our 2027 projections. We increased the EBITDA multiple in tandem with the industry multiple to reflect superior operational execution. The story is largely unchanged since the 2026 Investor Day, as Q1 proved to be another strong quarter of cash flow generation and value return. Upstream production reached 875.2k bbl/d, up 2.6% Y/Y. Refining throughput reached 497.8k bbl/d at 97% utilization, while refined product sales increased 13% to 680.9k bbl/d. Free funds flow grew 53% to CAD2.91B. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through CAD825M in share repurchases and over CAD700M in dividends. We maintained our 2026 and 2027 EPS forecasts of CAD6.97 and CAD5.39, respectively.

$SU
Research

Research Alert: Su Q1: Record Q1 Production, Increases Share Repurchases 30%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:SU reported adjusted operating earnings of CAD2.3B, up 41%, driven by improved downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations, and volume growth. Adjusted funds from operations increased 32% to CAD4.03B while free funds flow surged 53% to CAD2.91B, with upstream production reaching 875.2k bbl/d (+2.6%) and refining throughput at 497.8k bbl/d with 97% utilization. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, while management increased monthly share repurchases by 27% to CAD350M, projecting total 2026 buybacks of nearly CAD4B, a 30%+ increase over 2025 levels. The Investor Day outlined three-year targets including CAD2B increase in free funds flow by 2028, USD5/bbl reduction in corporate WTI breakeven to USD38/bbl, and 100k bbl/d upstream production growth. We remain bullish on their highly efficient integrated positioning, as crude price drops should enable return to ~100% utilization with higher throughput capacity and benefit from that pricing environment.

$SU
Research

Research Alert: Su Q1: Record Q1 Production, Increases Share Repurchases 30%

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:SU reported adjusted operating earnings of CAD2.3B, up 41%, driven by improved downstream margins, higher upstream price realizations, and volume growth. Adjusted funds from operations increased 32% to CAD4.03B while free funds flow surged 53% to CAD2.91B, with upstream production reaching 875.2k bbl/d (+2.6%) and refining throughput at 497.8k bbl/d with 97% utilization. The company returned CAD1.54B to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, while management increased monthly share repurchases by 27% to CAD350M, projecting total 2026 buybacks of nearly CAD4B, a 30%+ increase over 2025 levels. The Investor Day outlined three-year targets including CAD2B increase in free funds flow by 2028, USD5/bbl reduction in corporate WTI breakeven to USD38/bbl, and 100k bbl/d upstream production growth. We remain bullish on their highly efficient integrated positioning, as crude price drops should enable return to ~100% utilization with higher throughput capacity and benefit from that pricing environment.

$SU
Equities

Suncor Energy Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Gross Revenue Rise

Suncor Energy (SU) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of CA$1.93 ($1.42) per share, up from CA$1.31 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected CA$1.74.Gross revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was CA$15.42 billion, up from CA$13.33 billion a year earlier.Four analysts surveyed by FactSet expected CA$12.83 billion, if comparable.

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Equities

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q1 Revenue C$15.42 Billion, vs. FactSet Est of C$12.83 Billion

$SU
Equities

Earnings Flash (SU) Suncor Energy Posts Q1 Adjusted Operating EPS C$1.93, vs. FactSet Est of C$1.74

$SU
Research

Suncor Energy Maintained at Outperformer at CIBC Ahead of Q1 Results; Price Target at C$110.00

CIBC Capital Markets on Monday reiterated its outperformer rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) and its C$110.00 price target ahead of the May 5 release of the oil producer and refiner's first-quarter results."We estimate Q1/26 production of 862 MBoe/d and CFPS of $3.23, vs. consensus of 868 MBoe/d and $3.29, respectively. We expect the impact from the natural gas outage on oil sands production to be largely offset by the company's ability to transfer barrels between assets. On the downstream side, we expect the company to continue showing strong market capture, with FIFO/LIFO gains of at least $500 million. The company repurchased $823 million of shares during Q1/26, and we expect full-year share buybacks to be approximately $4 billion. The company hosted an Investor Day focusing on growth of 100 MBbl/d by 2028, a decrease of the WTI dividend breakeven to US$38, and prudent capital allocation including increased FCF generation and returns to shareholders," the investment bank noted.Price: $92.33, Change: $+0.50, Percent Change: +0.54%

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Research

Suncor Energy Maintained at Buy at TPH Ahead of Q1 Results; Price Target at C$105.00

Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Tuesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target ahead of first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner."Updating our model took our Q1'26 CFPS estimate higher to C$3.34 vs. prior TPHe/Street C$2.47/C$3.23, with markto-market factors the primary driver, more than offsetting moving pieces on ops (mainly Upstream production). At the segment level and in the context of total AFFO of TPHe C$3.95B, the key components of our build-up include TPHe C$2.94B for oil sands (TPHe 805mbopd in-line with Street, down vs. our prior 821 on sector-wide NGTL impacts and the early Feb coker outage which the company maximized in terms of elected maintenance work), C$423MM for E&P (TPHe 75mboepd production vs. prior TPHe/Street of ~60/~58 the driver of the delta in our overall production outlook), and TPHe C$1.87B (TPHe 477mbopd throughput vs. prior TPHe/Street 461/475)," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon noted.

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