Tudor, Pickering, Holt on Wednesday maintained its buy rating on the shares of Suncor Energy (SU.TO, SU) with a C$105.00 price target following first-quarter results from the oil producer and refiner.
"Suncor posted Q1 beats across the board, with downstream throughput/product sales primarily driving better AFFO vs. consensus, with better-than-expected capex further supporting a clean FCF beat. Headline Q1 metrics included beats on AFFO/shr (C$3.39 vs. TPHe/Street C$3.34/3.29) and capex (C$1.08B excl. capitalized interest vs. TPHe/Street C$1.19B/1.22B), which together drove the beat on FCF (C$2.91B vs. TPHe/Street C$2.76B/$2.69B). The beat vs. our model on AFFO owed mainly to much greater Downstream performance with 498mbpd throughput coming in well north of TPHe/Street 477/472, representing 97% utilization on the newly rerated 511mbpd nameplate capacity; C$1.98B AFFO was slightly above TPHe C$1.87B but well north of Street C$1.61B. On Upstream ops, 875mbopd came in modestly below our model but also well above Street, comparing to TPHe/Street 880/868, with the delta vs. TPHe driven by Oil Sands production of 799mbopd vs. TPHe 805, with Syncrude maintenance offsetting record Fort Hills; C$2.89B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street C$2.94B/C$2.83B. E&P was in-line on volumes vs. our model but again well north of Street, at 76mbopd vs. TPHe/Street 75/62; C$0.56B AFFO vs. TPHe/Street $0.41B/C$0.35B," analyst Jeoffrey Lambujon wrote.
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