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26 stories mentioning CMGUpdated 11d ago

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Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Will Likely Deliver Q1 Sales and Margin Beat, UBS Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will likely deliver a sales and margin beat relative to guidance and consensus in Q1, while reporting moderate same-store-sales growth given the still challenged consumer sentiment, weather, and broader macro headwinds, UBS Securities said in a note Monday.The brokerage said it expects management to maintain largely conservative guidance, including for a modest improvement in Q2 same-store-sales growth, while full year comparable sales targets remain nearly flat.UBS believes Q1 same-store-sales softness was likely driven by macro pressures and weather impacts, with some benefit from the Chicken Al Pastor launch, but with the lap of Honey Chicken a possible headwind in March, according to the note.While macro challenges persist in 2026, UBS said it expects trends to improve through the year, driven by menu innovation, marketing collaborations, an emphasis on protein, digital initiatives, the high-efficiency equipment package rollout, build-your-own Chipotle platform, and the catering pilot.Margins should improve in the second half as inflation eases, prices grow, and the inflation gap improves, according to the note. The brokerage models Q1 EPS of $0.25 and 2026 EPS of $1.18.The company is scheduled to report Q1 results on Wednesday.UBS maintained a buy rating on Chipotle with a price target of $45.Price: $33.81, Change: $-0.41, Percent Change: -1.18%

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US Markets

Restaurant Trends Likely Slowed to Exit First Quarter, UBS Says

Strong underlying trends across the US restaurant sector likely slowed toward the end of the first quarter, with an uncertain and a weak consumer environment expected to drive conservative guidance, UBS Securities said in a note on Monday."We expect (first-quarter) results to highlight generally solid underlying trends across much of the sector, but anticipate slower trends to exit the quarter and into (the second quarter so far)," UBS analyst Dennis Geiger said in the note.Management commentary will be a key focus given the impact of holiday calendar shifts, tax rebates and elevated gas prices, Geiger said. Energy prices have spiked because of the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route."We anticipate still generally conservative (2026) guidance given above (average) uncertainty in the industry backdrop," Geiger wrote.US consumer sentiment improved from an initial April estimate, but remained at a record low as near-term inflation expectations logged the biggest monthly increase in a year, final University of Michigan survey results showed Friday."Sentiment is unlikely to improve unless supply constraints are lifted or energy costs decline," according to the UBS note.Retail sales at restaurants and bars almost stalled sequentially in March, government data showed last week.Results across restaurants should largely be positive, especially when excluding the impacts of weather conditions, but "performance bifurcation among brands should remain reasonably wide again" during this reporting cycle, Geiger wrote.Starbucks' (SBUX) investors expect the company to lift its US same store sales target for this year following a second-quarter beat, according to UBS. Wingstop (WING) is seen lowering its comparable sales outlook after reporting a bigger-than-expected decline in the first quarter.The outlook for Cheesecake Factory (CAKE) and Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) will likely be maintained.Price: $98.64, Change: $-0.03, Percent Change: -0.03%

$CAKE$CMG$SBUX$WING
Wire

Restaurant Stocks Trail Market Amid Soft Demand, Early Q2 Volatility, BofA Says

Restaurant stocks are trailing the broader market as Q2 gets underway, with rising gasoline prices and softer demand weighing on the group, BofA Securities said Friday in a report.Same-store sales improved in Q1 despite adverse weather, while early April trends are difficult to interpret because Easter fell earlier this year, typically slowing restaurant traffic, the report said.Higher fuel costs are squeezing budgets and margins after investors had expected stronger spending helped by tax refunds, BofA said. Restaurants showing steady customer traffic and clear earnings momentum should stand out, the report said.In coverage of 19 companies, BofA cut its price target on Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) stock to $50 from $53, citing adjustments to its long-term earnings model tied to recent stock volatility. The company remains a strong brand with meaningful long-term earnings potential, the report said.BofA raised its price target on Starbucks (SBUX) stock to $130 from $120. The coffee chain is working to improve store operations and customer service, and these efforts could help stabilize results and support a recovery as the year progresses, the report said.BofA boosted its price target on Restaurant Brands International (QSR) stock to $74 from $63, pointing to improvements across its major chains. Better marketing and store upgrades, particularly at Burger King, may help drive steadier sales, the report said.Chipotle shares rose 0.5% in Friday trading, Starbucks fell 0.6%, and Restaurant Brands eased 0.1%.Price: $34.10, Change: $+0.20, Percent Change: +0.58%

$CMG$QSR$SBUX
Wire

BofA Securities Adjusts Price Target on Chipotle Mexican Grill to $50 From $53

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $44, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $33.97, Change: $+0.07, Percent Change: +0.20%

$CMG
Wire

Chipotle Mexican Grill Likely to Deliver Slight Beat for Q1 Same Store Sales, RBC Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) Q1 same-store sales will likely be slightly ahead of consensus estimates, with the potential for a slight upside, RBC Capital Markets said.The investment firm said in a Thursday note that it expects Chipotle's Q1 same-store sales to fall 0.8% compared with the consensus estimates for a 0.9% decrease.The brokerage said that compares for Chipotle "may have gotten easier through the quarter, as traffic took a step down in [February 2025]."RBC said it expects Chipotle's Q1 restaurant-level margins, or RLM, to be mainly in line with consensus estimates but the investment firm decreased its own estimate by 25 basis points due to more elevated commodity prices.Chipotle's management will likely reiterate the about flat full-year same-store sales outlook amid high macroeconomic uncertainty, but there is "potential for upwards revisions through the year, given the initial outlook was more conservative than typical," according to the note.The firm added that investor sentiment remains negative, though risk/reward appears slightly favorable, with traffic improvement a key debate.RBC has an outperform rating on Chipotle and lowered the company's price target to $45 from $50.Price: $36.62, Change: $+1.54, Percent Change: +4.38%

$CMG
US Markets

Chipotle Likely to Maintain Full-Year Comparable Sales Outlook Amid Macro Uncertainty, RBC Says

Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is expected to reiterate its full-year same-store sales outlook amid increased macro uncertainty due to the Middle East war, RBC Capital Markets said in a client note emailed Friday.In February, the burrito chain said it anticipated comparable restaurant sales to be flat in 2026, while the current consensus on FactSet is for growth of 0.8%. Chief Financial Officer Adam Rymer said during an earnings call at the time that the guidance was "grounded in a conservative baseline" in light of the "evolving consumer dynamic."RBC believes the company's senior management is expected to maintain its full-year forecast given the heightened uncertainty about the impact of the war in the Middle East on consumers in the US.Energy prices rose following the Iran war that started at the end of February. Recently, US-Iran peace negotiations in Pakistan ended without a deal, but a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran still holds. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post on Friday that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire."Though we continue to believe the outlook is a couple hundred (basis points) more conservative than typical and could see upward revisions through the year," RBC analyst Logan Reich said in the note.Government data released earlier this month showed consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March amid higher energy prices.For the first quarter, the brokerage estimates Chipotle to report a comparable sales decline of 0.8%, but sees potential for "some upside" with easier year-over-year comparables, as traffic slowed down in February 2025. Analysts polled by FactSet are looking for a 0.8% drop in comparable sales in the first quarter."On broader consumer spending, management noted a stepdown starting in February 2025, which could imply compares get easier through the quarter," according to Reich.RBC lowered its price target on Chipotle's stock to $45 from $50 with an outperform rating.Chipotle is scheduled to announce its quarterly results on April 29.Price: $36.58, Change: $+1.50, Percent Change: +4.28%

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