-- Chipotle Mexican Grill's (CMG) Q1 same-store sales will likely be slightly ahead of consensus estimates, with the potential for a slight upside, RBC Capital Markets said.
The investment firm said in a Thursday note that it expects Chipotle's Q1 same-store sales to fall 0.8% compared with the consensus estimates for a 0.9% decrease.
The brokerage said that compares for Chipotle "may have gotten easier through the quarter, as traffic took a step down in [February 2025]."
RBC said it expects Chipotle's Q1 restaurant-level margins, or RLM, to be mainly in line with consensus estimates but the investment firm decreased its own estimate by 25 basis points due to more elevated commodity prices.
Chipotle's management will likely reiterate the about flat full-year same-store sales outlook amid high macroeconomic uncertainty, but there is "potential for upwards revisions through the year, given the initial outlook was more conservative than typical," according to the note.
The firm added that investor sentiment remains negative, though risk/reward appears slightly favorable, with traffic improvement a key debate.
RBC has an outperform rating on Chipotle and lowered the company's price target to $45 from $50.
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