-- Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) is expected to reiterate its full-year same-store sales outlook amid increased macro uncertainty due to the Middle East war, RBC Capital Markets said in a client note emailed Friday.
In February, the burrito chain said it anticipated comparable restaurant sales to be flat in 2026, while the current consensus on FactSet is for growth of 0.8%. Chief Financial Officer Adam Rymer said during an earnings call at the time that the guidance was "grounded in a conservative baseline" in light of the "evolving consumer dynamic."
RBC believes the company's senior management is expected to maintain its full-year forecast given the heightened uncertainty about the impact of the war in the Middle East on consumers in the US.
Energy prices rose following the Iran war that started at the end of February. Recently, US-Iran peace negotiations in Pakistan ended without a deal, but a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran still holds. Iran's foreign minister Abbas Araghchi said in a social media post on Friday that the passage for all commercial vessels through the Strait of Hormuz is completely open for the remaining period of the ceasefire.
"Though we continue to believe the outlook is a couple hundred (basis points) more conservative than typical and could see upward revisions through the year," RBC analyst Logan Reich said in the note.
Government data released earlier this month showed consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March amid higher energy prices.
For the first quarter, the brokerage estimates Chipotle to report a comparable sales decline of 0.8%, but sees potential for "some upside" with easier year-over-year comparables, as traffic slowed down in February 2025. Analysts polled by FactSet are looking for a 0.8% drop in comparable sales in the first quarter.
"On broader consumer spending, management noted a stepdown starting in February 2025, which could imply compares get easier through the quarter," according to Reich.
RBC lowered its price target on Chipotle's stock to $45 from $50 with an outperform rating.
Chipotle is scheduled to announce its quarterly results on April 29.
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