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Crude Oil Prices Plunge as U.S., Iran Reach Initial Deal to End War

Crude oil prices plummeted on Monday after the U.S. and Iran reached a preliminary deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.Brent crude at last look dropped 5.2% to US$82.76/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5.6% to $80.09/barrel.The U.S. and Iran will sign a memorandum of understanding in Switzerland on Friday, with U.S. President Donald Trump saying the strait would be open "toll free" and a U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports would end, Reuters said in a Monday report.Investors are monitoring how quickly Middle Eastern producers can resume oil production and exports and whether more ships will enter the region, the report said."It will take time for oil to approach the pre-crisis level of 20 million barrels per day sailing through this chokepoint. Estimates of the full resumption of traffic vary from weeks to months," Reuters quoted Tamas Varga, analyst at PVM Oil Associates, as saying.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Drop as Trump Cancels New Strikes on Iran

Crude oil prices dropped on Friday after U.S. President Donald Trump called off planned strikes on Iran amid progress in peace talks.Brent crude at last look lost 4.4% to US$86.42/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 4.5% to $83.79/barrel. Prices hit their lowest levels in nearly two months after Trump said a deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz could be signed as soon as this weekend, Reuters said in a Friday report."Headlines are driving the market once again, as confidence grows that an eventual deal will be struck and the Strait reopens," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.However, global and regional oil stocks remain low, and a deal may not be enough to boost stocks as it would take time to ensure uninterrupted oil flows, the analyst added, according to Reuters.The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Thursday reduced its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 970,000 barrels per day, down from a previous forecast of 1.17 million barrels per day. This is the producer group's second straight downward revision, the report said.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices May Hit US$150/Barrel if U.S.-Iran Hostilities Resume in Earnest, Says Rystad Energy

Rystad Energy expects crude oil prices to move toward US$150/barrel if hostilities between the U.S. and Iran were to resume in earnest, according to a Wednesday note.The latest escalation has brought the ceasefire to its most difficult moment so far, Rystad said. The uncertainty has been injecting volatility into oil price moves"At this stage, it is too early to say whether the current escalation marks a full resumption of hostilities or a dangerous but still containable episode," said Jorge Leon, senior vice president and head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad.However, price rises could also be blunted by record Strategic Petroleum Reserve releases that has resulted in record U.S. exports, lower crude imports by China, and crude bypassing the Strait of Hormuz via Saudi Arabia's Yanbu port, Leon noted."Oil price volatility is likely to remain elevated until there is clearer evidence that the ceasefire can hold or that diplomatic channels are regaining traction," Leon said.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Hold Steady as Traders Assess Supply Impacts of U.S.-Iran War Escalation

Crude oil prices were little changed on Thursday as traders assessed the supply impacts of recent renewed exchange of hostilities between the U.S. and Iran.Brent crude at last look lost 0.7% to US$92.45/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.5% to $89.57/barrel. This comes as efforts to reach a preliminary deal between the two countries intensify despite strikes from both sides, Reuters said in a Thursday report, citing three Iranian sources.Tehran declared the Strait of Hormuz closed after the U.S. launched strikes against Iran, the report said. Weaker Chinese fuel demand, however, is capping price increases amid falling gasoline and diesel use, as well as lower crude imports."The latest escalation adds uncertainty to already fragile ceasefire negotiations and risks prolonged supply disruptions that have constrained global crude, fuel, and LNG exports since the conflict began," Reuters quoted MUFG analyst Soojin Kim as saying.

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International

U.S. EIA Reduces 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid High Prices, Reduced Availability

The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, citing high fuel prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives.The reduced global demand, particularly in Asia, could limit oil price increases resulting from near-term disruptions in oil flows out of the Middle East due to the war, the EIA said. The world is expected to consume 1 million fewer barrels of oil per day on average year over year."Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.Brent crude oil prices are expected to average US$95/barrel in 2026, falling to $79/barrel in 2027 when supply flows and oil production resume.Natural gas prices at Henry Hub are forecast to average $3.60 in 2026 and $3.46 in 2027. Supply growth continues to outpace demand, lowering prices in the EIA's outlook from earlier forecasts, according to the agency.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Little Changed Amid U.S.-Iran War Uncertainties

Crude oil prices held relatively steady on Wednesday amid uncertainty about developments in the U.S.-Iran war.Brent crude at last look was down 0.7% to US$87.57/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.6% to $90.94/barrel. Lower Chinese crude oil imports and the persisting effective closure of shipping through the Strait of Hormuz are putting a ceiling on price increases amid the war, Reuters said in a Wednesday report, citing analysts.Meanwhile, the U.S. responded to the downing of a U.S. Apache attack helicopter by striking Iranian targets, shifting traders' focus back toward risks brought about by the war, the report said."While diplomatic efforts remain ongoing, the latest military exchanges have reintroduced a geopolitical risk premium into oil markets," Reuters quoted Priyanka Sachdeva, senior market analyst at Phillip Nova, as saying.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Drop Amid Investor Uncertainty as Iran, Israel Stop Attacks

Crude oil prices declined on Tuesday following news that Iran and Israel have paused attacks, but risks remain that hostilities would resume at any time.Brent crude at last look lost 2.1% to US$92.24/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 2.5% to $88.98/barrel. This comes after oil prices rose due to renewed Israeli strikes on Iran and attacks in Lebanon over the weekend.Analysts warned that this halt in hostilities could be short-lived as it had been in previous times since the war began, Reuters said in a Tuesday report."In the meantime, global oil inventories keep depleting and as data, whether weekly or monthly, becomes available, realization of dangerously low oil stockpiles worldwide could intensify the race for available barrels pushing Brent back above $100 once again," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.Most shipping through the Strait of Hormuz continues to be blocked, with the U.S. imposing its own blockade of Iranian ports, the report said.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Jump After U.S., Iran Exchange Strikes, Dimming Ceasefire Hopes

Crude oil prices climbed on Monday following an exchange of strikes between the U.S. and Iran and an escalation of hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Brent crude at last look rose 3.3% to US$94.13/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude gained 4% to $90.87/barrel. This comes after the U.S. said it conducted "self-defense" strikes in Goruk and Qeshm Island and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said its aerospace force targeted an air base, Reuters said in a Monday report.Meanwhile, Israel reportedly ordered troops to move further into Lebanon as it fights Tehran-backed Hezbollah, according to Reuters.Hopes of an extension to the ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran have diminished amid the developments, despite Israel-Lebanon peace talks on Friday hosted by Washington, the report said.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Fall After Reports of Potential U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Extension Deal

Crude oil prices fell on Friday following reports that an agreement has been reached between the U.S. and Iran to potentially extend their ceasefire.Brent crude at last look lost 1.3% to US$92.46/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude declined 1.7% to $87.39/barrel. Both benchmarks are on track for their steepest weekly decline since early April.The U.S. and Iran reportedly reached an agreement on Thursday to extend the ceasefire and lift restrictions on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said in a Friday report, citing unnamed sources. The deal has not been approved by U.S. President Donald Trump and Iranian state media said it has not been finalized, according to the report."While oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain restricted and oil inventories keep falling, the market focus remains on the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran," Reuters quoted UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo as saying.A reopening of the strait would offer some immediate relief to the oil market, but recovery remains uncertain, analysts at ING said, as reported by Reuters.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Jump as Iran Strikes in Retaliation to U.S. Attack

Crude oil prices rose on Thursday following strikes by Iran in retaliation to an earlier U.S. attack, taking focus away from ongoing peace talks.Brent crude at last look gained 1.9% to near US$96.10/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was up 2.1% to above $90.50/barrel. This comes after Iran's Revolutionary Guard said they targeted a U.S. airbase in response to the U.S. military's drone operation in the port city of Bandar Abbas, Reuters said in a Thursday report.Both benchmarks previously hit their lowest levels in a month on the possibility of a deal between the U.S. and Iran to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the report said."While any faith remains that a deal will be struck, prices will drift until some such time as the depletion in global oil inventories starts to finally bite and once again reminds us of how over a billion barrels of oil is stuck behind the pinch of Hormuz," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Association analyst John Evans saying.

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Sectors

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Likely Fell 1.4 Million Barrels in Week Ended May 22, Macquarie Says

U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have declined 1.4 million barrels in the week ended May 22, following a draw of 7.9 MM BBL in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tighter than its expectations, Macquarie said in a Tuesday note.Beyond normal variability in flow items, Macquarie once again noted that persistently high crude exports and strategic petroleum releases could inject considerable volatility into weekly figures. Macquarie said it remains focused on refined product inputs and emerging signs of demand destruction following three straight weeks of soft implied distillate demand and two weeks of weak gasoline prints.From refineries, Macquarie expects crude runs to have risen 0.3 million barrels per day. Net imports are expected to have modestly increased, with exports down 0.3 MBD and imports up 0.1 MBD on a nominal basis.Implied domestic supply is forecast to have risen 1.0 MBD following a weak print in the previous week. Strategic petroleum reserves are projected to have dropped 9.1 MM BBL, Macquarie added.Among products, gasoline stocks are forecast to have fallen 2.5 MM BBL. Meanwhile, distillate stocks and jet fuel inventories are projected to have gained 0.3 MM BBL and 1.2 MM BBL, respectively, Macquarie said. Implied demand for these three products are forecast at 14.6 MBD, it added.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Market Hopes for Progress in U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices dropped on Wednesday as the market focuses on potential progress made in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran despite renewed hostilities.Brent crude at last look had lost 3.3% to US$96.28/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude had fallen 4.1% to $90.02/barrel. Both sides had indicated developments in talks to reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, but strikes on both sides are threatening negotiations, Reuters said in a Wednesday report.The U.S. military carried out new strikes in Iran, which said on Tuesday that the U.S. had violated a ceasefire near the contested Strait of Hormuz. The U.S. said its strikes were defensive in nature, the report said. Israel also ramped up bombing in Lebanon.However, some liquefied natural gas tankers have reportedly transited through the strait in recent days, sparking expectations that the waterway could reopen soon, Reuters reported.

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Sectors

Brent Crude Oil Prices Rise Following U.S. Strikes on Iran

The benchmark Brent crude oil price climbed on Tuesday amid uncertainty that a peace deal will be reached between the U.S. and Iran following strikes by the U.S. military.Brent crude at last look gained 3.7% to US$99.70/barrel. There was no West Texas Intermediate settlement on Monday due to the Memorial Day holiday.U.S. forces conducted strikes in southern Iran in signs of renewed tensions and the decreasing likelihood of a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said in a Tuesday report."While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize," Reuters quoted Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank as saying.

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Mining & Metals

Market Chatter: Oil Sands Firms Can Afford Carbon Capture, Canadian Energy Minister Says

Canadian Energy Minister Tim Hodgson said he's "highly confident" that Alberta oil sands companies can absorb the cost of building carbon capture, despite their protests that Canada's climate rules hurt their global competitiveness, Bloomberg is reporting Monday.It noted Prime Minister Mark Carney's government reached an agreement earlier this month with Alberta on the trajectory of its industrial carbon price, a regime that forces heavy polluters to pay for carbon emissions but also generates credits for cutting greenhouse gas outflows.The deal was a crucial step toward building the C$16.5 billion ($12 billion) Pathways carbon capture project for the oil sands, which Carney has said is a necessary condition for approving a new crude oil pipeline to Canada's Pacific coast. As the negotiations unfolded in recent months, however, oil companies began publicly arguing that the carbon price imposes a cost on the Canadian industry that other major oil producers don't bear.In Hodgson's view, those companies were mainly protesting that they weren't directly at the table for the talks, he told Bloomberg in an interview."The reality is the federal government and the provincial government had to agree on what the framework for carbon pricing was before we got them to the table," he said. "Now that that's been done, the engagement will happen. I am highly confident that given how we've structured this, that the cost of Pathways can be readily absorbed."The project spearheaded by five of the largest oil sands companies, including Cenovus Energy Inc. (SU.TO), Imperial Oil Ltd. (IMO.TO) and Suncor Energy Inc. (SU.TO), would capture carbon dioxide from multiple facilities and transport it more than 400 kilometers (249 miles) by pipeline to a storage hub in eastern Alberta, where it would be stored underground.The new agreement targets 16 million metric tons of annual emissions reductions from Pathways -- but gradually over the next two decades. The first phase, to be completed by 2035, would build enough carbon capture to remove 6 million metric tons annually. Hodgson said the hope is that technology will have substantially advanced by then, opening up more choices."I think you're going to see a bunch of new technologies that are going to get cheaper and cheaper and cheaper, and that's going to create options for the Pathways folks," Hodgson said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Market Hopes for Peace Deal Between U.S., Iran

Crude oil prices dropped on Monday to two-week lows as the market expects the U.S. and Iran are nearing an agreement to end the war.Brent crude at last look lost 4.8% to US$98.53/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude fell 5% to $91.78/barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump over the weekend said the two parties had "largely negotiated" an understanding on a peace deal that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters said in a Monday report.However, both sides played down hopes that a deal will be reached soon, the report said. Additionally, any normalization in oil flows through the strait will take months, according to analysts."We've been at this stage before, only for talks to break down. Therefore, the market will likely be more cautious about overreacting," Reuters quoted Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy at ING, as saying."We continue to believe that the key factors for the oil market to watch should be the physical oil flows and so far, flows through the Strait remain restricted," UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo was quoted as saying.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Surge on Fading Hopes of a Peace Deal Between U.S., Iran

Crude oil prices jumped on Friday after sustaining losses during the week on diminishing confidence in a breakthrough in peace talks between the U.S. and Iran.Brent crude at last look surged 3.3% to US$105.93/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.7% to $98.92/barrel. Prices are on track for a weekly loss as the market continued to assess a potential peace deal, Reuters said in a Friday report.The countries, however, are still divided on Tehran's uranium stockpile and controls on the Strait of Hormuz, the report said. With the strait effectively closed, global oil inventories are dropping, analysts said in the report."The optimism of a relatively imminent truce and bearish rhetoric whenever Brent approaches $110 prevents oil prices from rallying significantly higher," Reuters quoted PVM Oil Associates analyst Tamas Varga as saying.

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Sectors

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Drop 7.9 Million Barrels in Week Ended May 15, EIA Reports

U.S. crude oil inventories dropped 7.9 million barrels to 445.0 million barrels in the week ended May 15, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its Weekly Petroleum Status report released Wednesday.Motor gasoline inventories also declined 1.5 million barrels to 214.2 million barrels. Meanwhile, distillate fuel stocks edged higher by 0.4 million barrels, the EIA reported.U.S. crude oil imports rose 116,000 barrels per day to 6.0 million barrels per day, according to the agency.U.S. crude oil refinery inputs decreased 80,000 barrels per day to 16.3 million barrels per day. Refineries operated at 91.6% of their operable capacity during the report week, the EIA reported.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Fall as Market Awaits Further Developments in U.S.-Iran Peace Talks

Crude oil prices fell as the market continued to wait for developments in U.S.-Iran peace talks, which are said to be in the final stages.Brent crude at last look lost 0.2% to US$104.80/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude was down 0.8% to $107.77/barrel. U.S. President Donald Trump said talks are in the final stages and that he could wait a few days for "the right answers" from Iran, Reuters said in a Thursday report.Tehran said it was reviewing Washington's latest responses but warned against further attacks, the report said. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for energy supplies, remains effectively closed as Iran unveiled steps entrenching its control of the strait.Iran on Wednesday announced a new "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," saying there would be a "controlled maritime zone" in the Strait of Hormuz, Reuters reported.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Processing in China Falls in April Amid Elevated Oil Prices, Commerzbank Says

Crude oil processing in China was significantly scaled back in April due to negative margins amid high crude oil prices, Commerzbank said in a Tuesday note.Crude processing was 13.3 million barrels per day in April, 1.2 million barrels per day lower than in March and its lowest level since the coronavirus pandemic in August 2022, the bank noted.In May, further cuts are expected despite the government's call to maintain high production levels, as refineries are likely to bring forward closures as part of their routine maintenance schedule, Commerzbank said.However, crude oil stocks appear to continue to rise in purely mathematical terms, albeit not as sharply as in previous months, despite a sharper drop in crude oil imports in April compared with the previous month, the bank said.

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Sectors

Crude Oil Prices Fall Following Trump Remarks About Ending Iran War Soon

Crude oil prices fell on Wednesday following remarks from U.S. President Donald Trump of a quick end to the war in the Middle East.Brent crude at last look fell 1.8% to US$109.28/barrel and West Texas Intermediate crude lost 0.8% to $107.77/barrel. U.S. Vice President JD Vance also said U.S. and Iran had made progress in talks, but investors remain wary about the outcome, Reuters said in a Wednesday report."Prices are likely to still exhibit some upside potential even if a deal is concluded, given that supply will likely not return to pre-war levels immediately," Reuters quoted LSEG research analyst Emril Jamil as saying.Oil prices are expected to rise further amid the risk of a prolonged supply disruption and global oil stocks reaching critically low levels, analysts said in the report.U.S. crude stockpiles are expected to have fallen by about 3.4 million barrels, according to a Reuters poll. The U.S. Energy Information Administration is due to publish its weekly oil market data report Wednesday afternoon.

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