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U.S. EIA Reduces 2026 Global Oil Demand Forecast Amid High Prices, Reduced Availability

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The U.S. Energy Information Administration lowered its forecast for global oil demand in 2026 in its June Short-Term Energy Outlook released Tuesday, citing high fuel prices, reduced fuel availability and government initiatives.

The reduced global demand, particularly in Asia, could limit oil price increases resulting from near-term disruptions in oil flows out of the Middle East due to the war, the EIA said. The world is expected to consume 1 million fewer barrels of oil per day on average year over year.

"Any scenario involving full restoration of inventories, production, and trade flows to pre-conflict levels must account for the partial restructuring of the global oil market that has already occurred," EIA Administrator Tristan Abbey said.

Brent crude oil prices are expected to average US$95/barrel in 2026, falling to $79/barrel in 2027 when supply flows and oil production resume.

Natural gas prices at Henry Hub are forecast to average $3.60 in 2026 and $3.46 in 2027. Supply growth continues to outpace demand, lowering prices in the EIA's outlook from earlier forecasts, according to the agency.

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