U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have declined 1.4 million barrels in the week ended May 22, following a draw of 7.9 MM BBL in the prior week, with the crude balance again realizing tighter than its expectations, Macquarie said in a Tuesday note.
Beyond normal variability in flow items, Macquarie once again noted that persistently high crude exports and strategic petroleum releases could inject considerable volatility into weekly figures. Macquarie said it remains focused on refined product inputs and emerging signs of demand destruction following three straight weeks of soft implied distillate demand and two weeks of weak gasoline prints.
From refineries, Macquarie expects crude runs to have risen 0.3 million barrels per day. Net imports are expected to have modestly increased, with exports down 0.3 MBD and imports up 0.1 MBD on a nominal basis.
Implied domestic supply is forecast to have risen 1.0 MBD following a weak print in the previous week. Strategic petroleum reserves are projected to have dropped 9.1 MM BBL, Macquarie added.
Among products, gasoline stocks are forecast to have fallen 2.5 MM BBL. Meanwhile, distillate stocks and jet fuel inventories are projected to have gained 0.3 MM BBL and 1.2 MM BBL, respectively, Macquarie said. Implied demand for these three products are forecast at 14.6 MBD, it added.