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U.S. Crude Oil Stocks Likely Dropped 6.1 Million Barrels in Week Ended June 12, Macquarie Says

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U.S. crude oil inventories are forecast to have fallen 6.1 million barrels in the week ended June 12, adding to a draw of 7.2 MM BBL in the prior week, Macquarie said in a Monday note.

Macquarie also noted that persistently high crude exports and strategic petroleum reserve draws could inject volatility into weekly stats.

"With June/July as the expected window for potential gasoline demand destruction to

manifest, two consecutive soft prints here are notable," Macquarie said. "That said, firm signs of large US gasoline demand destruction have yet to emerge."

Crude runs at refineries are forecast to have edged higher by 0.1 million barrels per day. Net imports are expected to have dropped, with exports up 0.3 MBD and imports down 0.2 MBD, Macquarie said.

Implied domestic supply is projected to have bounced back from the previous week, rising 0.6 MBD. Strategic petroleum reserves are expected to have been reduced by 8.9 MM BBL.

Gasoline stocks are forecast to have gained 0.7 MM BBL, while distillate stocks are projected to have fallen 0.4 MM BBL. Jet fuel stocks are forecast to have increased by 0.5 MM BBL. Macquarie modeled implied demand for these three products at about 14.4 MBD during the report week.

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