WTI Crude Oil Futures (July)

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$1.60; Settles at US$93.76 per Barrel

Oil Falls on Reports Iran is Considering a Fresh U.S. Peace Offer

Oil prices fell early Tuesday following reports Iran is considering a new U.S. peace deal to end the war, a day after prices surged after the two sides appeared to be on the brink of resuming hostilities.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $1.23 to US$90.93 per barrel, while August Brent oil was down $1.30 to US$93.68.Prices surged 5.5% on Monday after the United States and Iran traded strikes while Iran said it was refusing to continue talks on a peace deal as long as Israel continued its attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. However Reuters on Tuesday reported Iran is considering a fresh U.S. proposal to end the war and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, citing Iranian media, while U.S. President Trump said on Monday talks were continuing."Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian officials reportedly halted negotiations with the US in protest over Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon. President Trump later sought to calm markets by insisting talks remained ongoing and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, although the two sides offered differing accounts of the conversation. Beneath the headline-driven volatility, global energy markets continue to tighten," Saxo Bank noted.Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, on Tuesday said global oil inventories could fall to critical levels as summer demand rises while stocks fall with the the Middle East war keeping 14-million barrels per day of Persian Gulf supply off the market with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Bloomberg reported.The IEA official said the agency expects reopening the key Strait will likely take at least six months to fully restore Persian Gulf exports once a peace deal is reached, forcing higher prices to prompt demand destruction as importing countries hunt for supply.

NY Crude Down 0.9% at US$91.30 and Brent Crude Down 1% at US$94

Brent Crude Down 1.4% at US$93.65

Update: WTI Oil Rises Off a Six-Week Low on Renewed Hostilities Between the United States and Iran

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Monday surged 5.5% Monday, climbing off a six-week low on heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock.The rise comes after the United States over the weekend attacked Iranian military sites, while The Guardian reported Iran on Monday targeted a U.S. military base in Kuwait and said it will discontinue negotiations until Israel ends its war on Lebanon, pushing oil prices up from a six-week low.The hostilities have dimmed prospects for a end to the war that began on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, which responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that is the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf countriesThe price of the commodity rose well above US$100 per barrel in April as the war blocked exports from the Gulf, but have since moderated on hopes the apparently suspended talks between the two countries hosted by Qatar would produce a deal that reopens the Strait, while some of the region's exporters have found alternatives to tanker shipments and demand has weakened due to high prices."Traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.80; Settles at US$92.16 per Barrel

Oil Rises Off a Six-Week Low on Renewed Strikes Between the United States and Iran

Oil prices rose early on Monday, climbing off a six-week low as Iran and the United States traded attacks, dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$3.09 to US$90.45 per barrel after falling to the lowest since April 17 on Friday, while August Brent oil was up US$2.62 to US$93.74.The rise comes after the United States over the weekend attacked Iranian military sites, while The Guardian reported Iran on Monday targeted a U.S. military base in Kuwait.The hostilities have dimmed prospects for a end to the war that began on Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched strike on Iran, which responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that is the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf countries.The price of the commodity rose well above US$100 per barrel in April as the war blocked exports from the Gulf, but have since moderated on hopes talks between the two countries hosted by Qatar will produce a deal that reopens the Strait, while some of the region's exporters have found alternatives to tanker shipments and demand has weakened due to high prices."Traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles," Saxo Bank noted.

Brent Up 3.1% at Just Under US$94 and NY Crude Up 3.7% at Near US$90.60

Update: WTI Oil Closes at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at six-week Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $1.54 to settle at US$87.36 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was last seen down $1.74 to US$91.97.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which posted their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.54; Settles at US$87.36 per Barrel

Oil Trading at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

Oil traded at a six-week low early Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $1.26 to US$87.64 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was down $1.55 to US$92.16.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which are posting their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

Update: -- NY Crude Down 1.55% at Near US$87.50 and Brent Crude Down 1.5% at About US$92.30

Brent Crude Down 1.6% at About US$92.20

Update: WTI Oil Closes Higher But Gives Up Early Gains Following Reports Iran and the U.S. To Extend Ceasefire

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday but fell off early highs following reports s the United States and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire even as they earlier traded strikesWTI crude oil for July delivery up US$0.22 to settle at US$US$88.90 per barrel after earlier touching US$92.52. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.64 to US$93.65.The drop off session highs came after Axios reported the two countries will extend their ceasefire agreement. The potential deal comes despite earlier reports U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian GulfOil prices have climbed by half since Iran closed the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.In its weekly survey the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 3.3-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters expected a 4.1-million barrel drop.

Update: WTI Oi Closes Higher But Gives Up Early Gains Following Reports Iran and the U.S. To Extend Ceasefire

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain on Thursday but fell off early highs following reports s the United States and Iran agreed to extend their ceasefire even as they earlier traded strikesWTI crude oil for July delivery up US$0.22 to settle at US$US$88.90 per barrel after earlier touching US$92.52. July Brent oil was last seen down US$0.64 to US$93.65.The drop off session highs came after Axios reported the two countries will extend their ceasefire agreement. The potential deal comes despite earlier reports U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian GulfOil prices have climbed by half since Iran closed the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.In its weekly survey the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 3.3-million barrels last week, while the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters expected a 4.1-million barrel drop.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes up US$0.22; Settles at US$88.90 per Barrel

Market Chatter: Alberta Oil Pipeline to Cost Sector More Than C$100 Billion, Imperial Says

Alberta's proposed million-barrel-a-day pipeline to the British Columbia coast will require Canada's oil industry to invest more than C$100 billion ($72.5 billion), the chief executive officer of Imperial Oil Ltd. says, Bloomberg is reporting Thursday.Industry will need to invest capital in growing production to fill the new line, make shipping commitments, as well as invest in a carbon capture project mandated by the federal government, John Whelan said at the Energy Roundtable conference in Calgary. The total cost is "north of a hundred billion dollars that we will need to attract to this industry," he said. "Now I think we can do that, but that's kind of scale of what we're talking about."Thursday's report noted Alberta Premier Danielle Smith proposed a new pipeline to the west coast as part of her goal to eventually double oil production in the province. Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney has pledged to back the new pipeline in exchange for a series of measures including a higher industrial carbon tax and the deployment of a long-planned carbon capture project in the oil sands, called Pathways, to reduce emissions, it also noted.Alberta plans to roll out details of the new pipeline, including the planned route to the coast, by July for federal approval by October, the report says. But Alberta's preferred northwest route faces stiff pushback from Indigenous groups in BC as well as the province's Premier David Eby. The project may also require a lifting of a moratorium on oil tankers if the pipeline goes to the northern BC coast, which Smith wants, it adds.Construction could start late next year, the government has said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil Rebounds From a Month Low as Iran and the U.S. Trade Strikes, Raising Doubts a Peace Deal is Near

Oil rose off a month low early on Thursday as the United States and Iran traded strikes, a threat to peace talks to end a war that is entering its fourth month and produced the largest-every energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$2.78 to US$91.46 per barrel, rising off the lowest since April 20. July Brent oil was up US$2.85 to US$91.46.The rise comes on fresh hostilities in the Persian Gulf. The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. forces attacked a drone-control base in Iran and shot down Iranian drones, while Kuwait intercepted an Iranian missile and Iran attacked commercial shipping in the Persian Gulf.Despite the fighting, the Journal said U.S. officials expect a strained ceasefire between the two countries to stay in place while peace talks in Qatar continue.Oil prices have climbed by half since Iran blockaded the Strait of Homuz on the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations."Brent crude spiked ... after renewed US attacks near the Strait of Hormuz and retaliatory IRGC strikes targeting US bases, underscoring the limited prospect for a near-term peace deal as the US and Iran remained far apart on steps needed to reopen the vital waterway," Saxo Bank noted.Falling U.S. oil inventories are also offering support to oil prices. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. oil stocks fell by 2.8-million barrels last week, the sixth-straight weekly draw. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Thursday.

Brent Crude Up Near 2% at About US$96.10

Update: WTI Oil Plunges to a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 5.6% on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.21 to settle at US$88.68 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$5.30 to US$94.28.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar and U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near. Reuters reported Iranian State TV is saying it has seen a draft of "an initial, unofficial framework" for a peace agreement that sees the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the region while Iran and Oman will jointly managing shipping through the Strait.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.