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Market Chatter: Oil Falls After Israel-Lebanon Ceasefire Even as Clashes Persist

Oil fell as a conditional ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon offered to ease the way toward a US-Iran peace deal, even as the truce was marred by ongoing clashes, Bloomberg reported Thursday.Brent futures retreated 2.2% below US$96 a barrel in thin trading volumes, snapping three days of gains in London. Still, Iran said there had been no recent progress in talks with the US over an interim peace deal, while fighting persisted in Lebanon despite Washington's declaration of a ceasefire subject to Tehran-backed Hezbollah stopping hostilities.Washington and Tehran have sketched out a framework to extend their truce by two months and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, but negotiations are stalling and sporadic fighting has resumed. Iran insists a deal with the US requires a ceasefire in Lebanon but Trump said he'd like to keep the two separate.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Brent Crude Down 2% at Near US$95.80

Update: WTI Oil Rises Again as the United States and Iran Trade Strikes

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose for a third day on Wednesday as the ceasefire between Iran and the United States appeared to fracture as the two sides exchanged strikes, lowering hopes for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.WTI oil for July delivery closed up US$2.26 to settle at US$96.02 per barrel,, while August Brent oil was last seen up US$1.88 to US$97.88.The Wall Street Journal reported Iran launched attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain and the United States attacked Iran's military ground control stations on Qeshm Island and struck at an empty oil tanker attempting to run its blockade of Iranian ports and load oil at Iran's Kharg Island.The strikes are lowering hopes for an end to the war that is now in its fourth month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28 has shut in most exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand. While U.S. President Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is near, Iran on Monday said it is refusing further talks until Israel ends its attacks ol Lebanon."Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, with Brent pushing above USD 97 as market pessimism once again grows over the prospects of a US-Iran deal that could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation saw US forces intercept Iranian missiles and drones before striking an Iranian command center in response. For now, the risk premium continues to be partly offset by President Trump's repeated insistence that an interim agreement remains within reach," Saxo Bank noted.Dwindling U.S. inventories are also supporting prices. In its weekly survey, the Energy Information Administration reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by eight-million barrels last week, double the consensus estimate among analysts polled by Reuters for a four-million barrel drop.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$2.26, Settles at US$96.02 per Barrel

Oil Rises Again as the United States and Iran Trade Strikes

Oil prices rose for a third day early on Wednesday as the ceasefire between Iran and the United States appeared to fracture as the two sides exchanged strikes, lowering hopes for a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$1.92 per barrel, while August Brent oil was up US$2.09 to US$98.09.The Wall Street Journal reported Iran launched attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain and the United States attacked Iran's military ground control stations on Qeshm Island and struck at an empty oil tanker attempting to run its blockade of Iranian ports and load oil at Iran's Kharg Island.The strikes are lowering hopes for an end to the war that is now in its fourth month. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz since the war began on Feb. 28 has shut in most exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand. While U.S. President Trump has claimed a deal to end the war is near, Iran on Monday said it is refusing further talks until Israel ends its attacks ol Lebanon."Crude oil is trading higher for a third consecutive session, with Brent pushing above USD 97 as market pessimism once again grows over the prospects of a US-Iran deal that could pave the way for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The latest escalation saw US forces intercept Iranian missiles and drones before striking an Iranian command center in response. For now, the risk premium continues to be partly offset by President Trump's repeated insistence that an interim agreement remains within reach," Saxo Bank noted.Dwindling U.S. inventories are also supporting prices. In its weekly survey, the American Petroleum Institute report U.S. oil stocks fell by 6.75-million barrels last week, the seventh-straight weekly drop and well more than the consensus estimate for a drop of 3.6-million barrels, according to Investing.com. The Energy Information Administration will release official inventory data later on Wednesday morning.

Brent Crude Up 3% at US$98.90 and NY Crude Up 3.3% at US$96.90

Update: WTI Oil Rises Again as Iran Reviews U.S. Peach Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher on Tuesday, rising off session lows following reports Iran is considering a new U.S. peace deal to end the war, a day after prices surged after the two sides appeared to be on the brink of resuming hostilities.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up US$1.60 to settle at US$93.76 per barrel, after earlier touching US$90.12. August Brent oil was last seen up US$1.01 to US$95.99.Prices surged 5.5% on Monday after the United States and Iran traded strikes while Iran said it was refusing to continue talks on a peace deal as long as Israel continued its attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. However Reuters on Tuesday reported Iran is considering a fresh U.S. proposal to end the war and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, citing Iranian media, while U.S. President Trump said on Monday talks were continuing."Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian officials reportedly halted negotiations with the US in protest over Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon. President Trump later sought to calm markets by insisting talks remained ongoing and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, although the two sides offered differing accounts of the conversation. Beneath the headline-driven volatility, global energy markets continue to tighten," Saxo Bank noted.Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, on Tuesday said global oil inventories could fall to critical levels as summer demand rises while stocks fall with the the Middle East war keeping 14-million barrels per day of Persian Gulf supply off the market with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Bloomberg reported.The IEA official said the agency expects reopening the key Strait will likely take at least six months to fully restore Persian Gulf exports once a peace deal is reached, forcing higher prices to prompt demand destruction as importing countries hunt for supply.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$1.60; Settles at US$93.76 per Barrel

Oil Falls on Reports Iran is Considering a Fresh U.S. Peace Offer

Oil prices fell early Tuesday following reports Iran is considering a new U.S. peace deal to end the war, a day after prices surged after the two sides appeared to be on the brink of resuming hostilities.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $1.23 to US$90.93 per barrel, while August Brent oil was down $1.30 to US$93.68.Prices surged 5.5% on Monday after the United States and Iran traded strikes while Iran said it was refusing to continue talks on a peace deal as long as Israel continued its attacks on Iran-backed Hezbollah militants in Lebanon. However Reuters on Tuesday reported Iran is considering a fresh U.S. proposal to end the war and reopen the critical Strait of Hormuz, citing Iranian media, while U.S. President Trump said on Monday talks were continuing."Crude oil continues to trade from one headline to the next, making it increasingly difficult for traders to maintain conviction beyond a few hours. On Monday, prices posted their biggest one-day gain in a month after rebounding from a six-week low when Iranian officials reportedly halted negotiations with the US in protest over Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon. President Trump later sought to calm markets by insisting talks remained ongoing and that he had spoken with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, although the two sides offered differing accounts of the conversation. Beneath the headline-driven volatility, global energy markets continue to tighten," Saxo Bank noted.Toril Bosoni, the head of the International Energy Agency's oil industry and markets division, on Tuesday said global oil inventories could fall to critical levels as summer demand rises while stocks fall with the the Middle East war keeping 14-million barrels per day of Persian Gulf supply off the market with the Strait of Hormuz blocked, Bloomberg reported.The IEA official said the agency expects reopening the key Strait will likely take at least six months to fully restore Persian Gulf exports once a peace deal is reached, forcing higher prices to prompt demand destruction as importing countries hunt for supply.

NY Crude Down 0.9% at US$91.30 and Brent Crude Down 1% at US$94

Brent Crude Down 1.4% at US$93.65

Update: WTI Oil Rises Off a Six-Week Low on Renewed Hostilities Between the United States and Iran

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) on Monday surged 5.5% Monday, climbing off a six-week low on heightened tensions between Iran and the United States, dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock.The rise comes after the United States over the weekend attacked Iranian military sites, while The Guardian reported Iran on Monday targeted a U.S. military base in Kuwait and said it will discontinue negotiations until Israel ends its war on Lebanon, pushing oil prices up from a six-week low.The hostilities have dimmed prospects for a end to the war that began on Feb. 28, when the U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran, which responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that is the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf countriesThe price of the commodity rose well above US$100 per barrel in April as the war blocked exports from the Gulf, but have since moderated on hopes the apparently suspended talks between the two countries hosted by Qatar would produce a deal that reopens the Strait, while some of the region's exporters have found alternatives to tanker shipments and demand has weakened due to high prices."Traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$4.80; Settles at US$92.16 per Barrel

Oil Rises Off a Six-Week Low on Renewed Strikes Between the United States and Iran

Oil prices rose early on Monday, climbing off a six-week low as Iran and the United States traded attacks, dimming expectations for a peace deal in a war now entering its fourth month that has caused the largest-ever oil supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$3.09 to US$90.45 per barrel after falling to the lowest since April 17 on Friday, while August Brent oil was up US$2.62 to US$93.74.The rise comes after the United States over the weekend attacked Iranian military sites, while The Guardian reported Iran on Monday targeted a U.S. military base in Kuwait.The hostilities have dimmed prospects for a end to the war that began on Feb. 28, when the United States and Israel launched strike on Iran, which responded by blockading the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that is the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf countries.The price of the commodity rose well above US$100 per barrel in April as the war blocked exports from the Gulf, but have since moderated on hopes talks between the two countries hosted by Qatar will produce a deal that reopens the Strait, while some of the region's exporters have found alternatives to tanker shipments and demand has weakened due to high prices."Traders continue to price in the likelihood that any agreement could trigger a near-term surge in supply from vessels currently stranded inside the Persian Gulf. By now, it is also clear that several key release valves have helped prevent an even larger price spike. These include a sharp increase in US oil exports, a slump in Chinese crude imports, the use of UAE and Saudi Arabian pipeline infrastructure that bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, strategic petroleum reserve releases, and weaker end-user demand through a combination of demand destruction and use of domestic stockpiles," Saxo Bank noted.

Brent Up 3.1% at Just Under US$94 and NY Crude Up 3.7% at Near US$90.60

Update: WTI Oil Closes at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed at six-week Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down $1.54 to settle at US$87.36 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was last seen down $1.74 to US$91.97.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which posted their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.54; Settles at US$87.36 per Barrel

Oil Trading at a Six-Week Low on Reports Iran and the U.S. May be Nearing a Peace Deal

Oil traded at a six-week low early Friday on reports the United States and Iran will extend their tenuous ceasefire while a Trump Administration official said the two sides are nearing a deal to end the war.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $1.26 to US$87.64 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while July Brent oil was down $1.55 to US$92.16.The Wall Street Journal reported U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump Administration is near a deal to end the war, which enters its fourth month today. The paper said President Trump is pressing for Iran to for a commitment to surrender its stocks of enriched uranium and fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Thursday reports that the two countries have extended a ceasefire for 60 days is also pressing prices.The Strait has been mostly closed to shipping since the Feb. 28 start to the war, blocking exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied 20% of daily oil demand. A peace deal could see shipping resume, but Iran is likely to maintain control of the waterway once hostilities end."Any end to the conflict that leaves Iran exercising operational control and influence over the Strait will result in appreciably lower flows through the waterway in our view. Moreover, we struggle to see how a sizeable number of Western shipping companies will be willing to risk transiting the waterway even if a 60-day MoU is inked, given the ever-present risk of recurrent rounds of military action involving missiles, drones, and mines. These factors are compounded by extremely elevated insurance rates as well as the legal difficulties associated with paying or coordinating with IRGC entities under US sanctions," Helima Croft, Head of Global Commodity Strategy and MENA Research at RBC Capital Markets, wrote.Still, hopes for a full return of Persian Gulf have cut into oil prices, which are posting their largest monthly drop in six years on expectations for a peace deal. However prices are not expected to soon return to pre-war levels as importing countries rebuild depleted inventories."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf. In the months ahead, however, demand to replenish depleted global inventories is likely to provide support, potentially lifting the price floor compared with pre-war levels," Saxo Bank noted.

Update: -- NY Crude Down 1.55% at Near US$87.50 and Brent Crude Down 1.5% at About US$92.30

Brent Crude Down 1.6% at About US$92.20