WTI Crude Oil Futures (July)

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$5.21; Settles at US$88.68 per Barrel

Oil Trading at a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

Oil traded lower for a second session early on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran will reach a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.29 to US$90.60 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was down US$2.66 to US$96.92.The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar. While U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near, The Guardian reported Iran is unwilling to agree to a deal that does not meet all its conditions. The paper said Iran has also launched talks with Oman on future regulations for ships transiting the Strait, which had been an international waterway prior to Iran's blockade.Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories."Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

Market Chatter: Canada To Sign Deal With Germany's SEFE For Ksi Lisims LNG, Reuters source says

Canada will sign a large-scale LNG agreement with Germany's SEFE for liquefied natural gas from the Ksi Lisims planned export facility on the coast of British Columbia, according to an industry source, Reuters is reporting Tuesday.The agreement, to be announced Wednesday in Vancouver by Natural Resources Minister Tim Hodgson, comes as Ksi Lisims' backers have been working to finalize contracts with purchasers before making an expected final investment decision this year, the report noted.Ksi Lisims, SEFE and Canada's natural resources ministry declined to comment.Bloomberg first reported the plans, while Shell and TotalEnergies have already signed 20-year LNG purchase agreements with Ksi Lisims, the report noted.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Oil Falls as U.S. Strikes on Iran Cloud Hopes for Successful Peace Talks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Tuesday even after the United States carried out strikes on Iran, threatening to derail peace talks between the two countries.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$2.71 to settle at US$93.89 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.40 to US$99.54While peace talks between Iran and the United States are underway, the United States on Monday launched attacks on what it said were missile-launching sites in Iran.The strikes come as the two countries continue talks to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait, which was the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand from Persian Gulf countries. Iran's blockade of the Strait following the Feb. 28 start to the war began the largest-ever oil supply shock and pushed up oil prices by more than half. The U.S. action threatens to prolong the market disruption."Fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize," Saxo Bank wrote.The Wall Street Journal reported talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar despite the U.S. action, with Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani saying on Tuesday that the indirect talks are likely to continue.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$2.71; Settles at US$93.89 per Barrel

Market Chatter: MP Steven Guilbeault Could Quit Caucus As Soon As This Week Amid Concerns Over Govt Rollback of Climate Policies

Former environment and climate change minister Steven Guilbeault is considering resigning from the Liberal Party caucus due to his concern over the federal government's rollback of Trudeau-era climate policies and the most recent iteration of the MOU with Alberta aimed at building a new pipeline, four sources in the federal government tell CTV News.The sources say Guilbeault is considering remaining as an MP, but sitting as an Independent, and likely would not run in the next election.CTV News has reached out to Guilbeault's office but has not received a response by the time of publication. Sources close to the former minister who spoke to him Monday say he wasn't 100% decided yet.On his way into a cabinet meeting Tuesday morning, Prime Minister Mark Carney was asked by the Globe and Mail's Marieke Walsh if he expected Guilbeault to resign. He didn't reply.According to Tuesday's report, Guilbeault is not alone in his concern about climate policy rollbacks. More than a dozen Liberal MPs wrote recently to the prime minister to express worry over changes to methane and clean electricity regulations in Alberta moving the $130 per-tonne effective price on carbon target beyond 2030, as well as any possible public money going toward a new pipeline.Sources close to Guilbeault say he was disheartened that the MOU and corresponding rollback of the oil and gas emissions cap, and aforementioned regulations meant even Canada's 2050 net-zero was out of reach, according to analysis from the Canadian Climate Institute.Speculation over Guilbeault's political future ramped up after Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith agreed earlier this month to elements of an energy deal that could see construction of an oil pipeline begin as early as the fall 2027 if specific conditions are met.Back in November, Guilbeault resigned from Carney's cabinet where he served as Minister of Canadian Identity and Culture -- just hours after Carney and Smith signed the initial memorandum of understanding (MOU) on energy.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil Prices Mixed Early as U.S. Strikes on Iran Cloud Hopes for Successful Peace Talks

Oil prices were mixed early on Tuesday after the United States carried out strikes on Iran, threatening to derail peace talks between the two countries.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.85 to US$92.75 per barrel, the lowest since April 21, while July Brent oil was up US$2.90 to US$99.04.While peace talks between Iran and the United States are underway, the United States on Monday launched attacks on what it said were missile-launching sites in Iran.The strikes come as the two countries continue talks to end the three-month war and reopen the Strait, which was the chokepoint for 20% of daily oil demand from Persian Gulf countries. Iran's blockade of the Strait following the Feb. 28 start to the war began the largest-ever oil supply shock and pushed up oil prices by more than half. The U.S. action threatens to prolong the market disruption."Fresh US military strikes in Iran clouded the outlook for an interim agreement between the US and Iran that could help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway through which around one-fifth of global oil and LNG flows under normal conditions, and which has remained largely closed since early March. While differences between the parties have narrowed, any eventual peace deal would likely lead only to a gradual reopening, meaning the current tight supply outlook could take months to normalize," Saxo Bank wrote.The Wall Street Journal reported talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar despite the U.S. action, with Iranian government spokeswoman Fatemeh Mohajerani saying on Tuesday that the indirect talks are likely to continue.

Brent Crude Up 3.1% at Near US$99.10 As US Strikes Iranian Targets While Peace Talks Continue

TSX Closer: Index Posts Record Highs Even As RBC and National Bank Both Try and Put the Oil Price Shock In Context

The resources heavy Toronto Stock Exchange raced to fresh record intraday and closing highs after rising for a fourth straight session on Monday, even as a sharply lower oil price prompted both RBC and National Bank to try and put the related market shock in context.Today the TSX closed up 359.53 points or 1% at 34,830.89 with most sectors higher. After climbing above 34,840 early in the session, the index then succumbed to some likely profit taking, but then it recovered from nearer 34,700 mid-afternoon.According to Dow Jones Market Data, FactSet the TSX going in to Monday was month-to-date up 1.49% and year-to-date up 2,758.60 points or 8.70%.Base Metals led gainers (up 2.3%) as gold traded higher by midafternoon Monday with the U.S. dollar falling on hopes the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to end the three-month war that has caused the largest-ever energy supply shock. Gold for July delivery was up $49.60 to US$4,606.00 per ounce in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday.But Energy was down 3.3% as oil traded sharply lower midafternoon Monday, falling more than 6% as peace negotiations between Iran and the U.S. continue, raising hopes for a deal that will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$6.21 to US$90.39 per barrel in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, July Brent oil was down US$7.40 to US$96.14.RBC today moved to put the oil price shock in context, and noted lots of focus on the nominal price of oil (Brent/WTI). The bank said nominal prices matter for inflation, but added the real oil price (i.e. cost per barrel divided by the price level or equivalently the CPI adjusted price of oil) matters for real GDP growth.Among observations, RBC noted the current real price of oil is around the average since 2006. "Oil is neither low nor high." It also noted that to reach the real oil price high in 2022, the nominal price needs to rise to US$131 (+25% compared to current WTI); to reach the average real oil price between 2011-14, the nominal price of oil needs to reach $143 (+38%); and to hit the 2007-2008 average real oil price, the nominal price needs to hit $164 (+58%).In looking at what does it potentially mean, RBC said, yes, the nominal price will cause headline inflation and maybe cause a rise in core inflation.According to RBC, economies generally managed growth "just fine" since 2006 with a similar real oil price as now, and demand destruction is probably a long way off. The bank noted oil intensity, the volume of oil required to generate one unit of gross domestic product (GDP), has been steadily falling over the past 40 years (down 50% since the mid-70s) and particularly in the past 20 years due to improvements in technology & transportation. "Thinking about it another way, the U.S. consumes roughly the same amount of barrels now as in the mid-70s, but real GDP is higher by a magnitude of 3.5x. So, an oil shock has been having a smaller impact on demand/consumption/GDP over time," RBC added.For policymakers, RBC said "the inflation consequences are real while the demand implications are murkier." To protect against the worst outcome (inflation), policy might need to be tightened, even if reluctantly, the bank added. "Now if a US-Iran deal caused oil to fall materially, the calculus would shift significantly less hawkish. This is a generic conclusion on central bank reaction functions."Elsewhere, Ethan Currie and Taylor Schleich over at National Bank noted economic data in Canada has "stumbled out the gate" so far in 2026, both in absolute terms (for example, the year-to-date employment decline) and relative terms (compared to consensus expectations).Indeed, last week, Canada's economic surprise index reached its lowest level since the fall of 2022, they said. "Back then, the Bank of Canada was bludgeoning the economy with rate hikes, after an oil supply shock that began earlier in the year contributed to an inflation surge. Sound familiar?," the National Bank added.But when it comes to the economic and inflation environment in 2026, this time is different, allowing the Bank of Canada to take a more patient policy approach, according to the National Bank duo.

Update: Oil Prices Slump as the United States and Iran Continue Peace Talks

Oil traded sharply lower midafternoon Monday, falling more than 6% as peace negotiations between Iran and the Untied States continue, raising hopes for a deal that will reopen the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$6.21 to US$90.39 per barrel in electronic trade, with markets closed for the Memorial Day holiday, July Brent oil was down US$7.40 to US$96.14.The drop comes as the countries continue talks to end the war that has kept the Strait closed for nearly three months, blocking much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. The Wall Street Journal reported Iran is willing to lift its blockade of the Strait in exchange for the United States ending its blockade of Iranian ports, though Iran warned a final deal is not imminent.The closure of the Strait has boosted oil prices to four-year highs, raising inflation and pressuring U.S. President Trump to come up with a deal to end the war as the high-demand U.S. driving season begins with today's Memorial Day holiday, further squeezing supply."Both Trump and Iran have strong reasons to find a quick way out of the war and crisis, for economic, financial, political and military reasons," SEB Research noted.

Update: WTI Oil Edges Up as Hopes for a Diplomatic Agreement to End the War on Iran Fade

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed with a small gain Friday on fading hopes for a quick peace deal between the United States and Iran.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed up US$0.25 to settle at US$96.60 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up up US$0.75 to US$103.33.The rise comes as prospects for a speedy end to the war on Iran fade, though the two sides continue indirect negotiations after the U.S. this week offered Iran a new peace plan. However, a key U.S. demand calling for Iran to surrender its nuclear stockpiles has been rejected by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Strait of Hormuz, remains blocked, keeping much of the 20% of daily oil demand produced by Persian Gulf nations off the market."Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict supported markets, with Tehran saying the latest proposal from Washington had helped narrow differences between the two sides. However, major hurdles remain, with the US demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and commit to ending uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have publicly resisted," Saxo Bank wrote.The supply shock that followed the end of the war has raised oil prices by more than half on an undersupplied market. But demand is set to climb with the start of the U.S. summer driving season which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.The Guardian reported Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, on Thursday warned the start of the travel season could push oil prices into a "red zone" as inventories continue to deplete, while demand is set to rise amid the travel season. He also said production from the Persian Gulf is likely to take a year to recover from the damage caused by the war.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$0.25; Settles at US$96.60 per Barrel

Oil Trading Higher as Hopes for a Diplomatic Agreement to End the War on Iran Fade

Oil traded higher early Friday on fading hopes for a quick peace deal between the United States and Iran. West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up $1.32 to US$97.67 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $210 to US$104.88.The rise comes as prospects for a speedy end to the war on Iran fade, though the two sides continue indirect negotiations after the U.S. this week offered Iran a new peace plan. However, a key U.S. demand calling for Iran to surrender its nuclear stockpiles has been rejected by Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei and the Strait of Hormuz, remains blocked, keeping much of the 20% of daily oil demand produced by Persian Gulf nations off the market."Hopes for a diplomatic resolution to the Iran conflict supported markets, with Tehran saying the latest proposal from Washington had helped narrow differences between the two sides. However, major hurdles remain, with the US demanding that Iran hand over its enriched uranium stockpile and commit to ending uranium enrichment, terms Iranian leaders have publicly resisted," Saxo Bank wrote.The supply shock that followed the end of the war has raised oil prices by more than half on an undersupplied market. But demand is set to climb with the start of the U.S. summer driving season which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday.The Guardian reported Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, on Thursday warned the start of the travel season could push oil prices into a "red zone" as inventories continue to deplete, while demand is set to rise amid the travel season. He also said production from the Persian Gulf is likely to take a year to recover from the damage caused by the war.

Brent Crude Up 2.7% at Near US$105.30 and NY Crude Up 2.15% at About US$98.45

Update: WTI Oil Falls Again as Iran is Reportedly Refusing to Surrender Its Uranium Stocks

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a third day on Thursday as the United States awaits Iran's response to it latest peace proposal, though reports said the Persian Gulf country will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$1.91 to settle at US$96.35 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$1.54 to US$103.48.The drop comes a day after the United States sent Iran a fresh peace offer while threatening to resume attacks on the country should its terms be rejected. While Iran has yet to formally respond Reuters reported Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the country's stocks of enriched uranium would not be surrendered, blocking a key U.S. peace demand.The news agency said that along with Iran's refusal to end its nuclear program, it also formed a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to firm its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.Iran blockaded the Strait at the Feb. 28 start to the war, producing the largest-ever energy supply shock, boosting oil prices by more than half and boosting inflation and raising fears central banks will need to raise interest rates and slow global growth while roiling markets."Oil moved sharply lower (Wednesday) after Trump stated that the US was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, raising hopes that some form of diplomatic breakthrough could eventually ease supply disruptions. Those hopes faded after subsequent comments warning that "there's more fighting to come unless Iran gets smart. Markets increasingly appear trapped between these alternating signals. The result has been substantial price volatility without delivering the one development that ultimately matters: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of regional energy flows," Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$1.91; Settles at US$96.35 per Barrel

Oil Prices Rise as Iran Reportedly Refusing to Surrender Its Uranium Stocks

Oil prices are up early Thursday, rebounding from a day-prior plunge as the United States awaits Iran's response to it latest peace proposal, though reports said the Persian Gulf country will not agree to U.S. demands to end its nuclear program.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up $2.34 to US$100.60 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up $1.94 to US$106.96.The rise comes a day after the U.S. sent Iran a fresh peace offer while threatening to resume attacks on the country should its terms be rejected. While Iran has yet to formally respond Reuters reported Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei ordered the country's stocks of enriched uranium would not be surrendered, blocking a key U.S. peace demand.The news agency said that along with Iran's refusal to end its nuclear program, it also formed a Persian Gulf Strait Authority to firm its control of the Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for 20% of global oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.Iran blockaded the Strait at the Feb. 28 start to the war, producing the largest-ever energy supply shock, boosting oil prices by more than half and boosting inflation and raising fears central banks will need to raise interest rates and slow global growth while roiling markets."Oil moved sharply lower (Wednesday) after Trump stated that the US was in the "final stages" of talks with Iran, raising hopes that some form of diplomatic breakthrough could eventually ease supply disruptions. Those hopes faded after subsequent comments warning that "there's more fighting to come unless Iran gets smart. Markets increasingly appear trapped between these alternating signals. The result has been substantial price volatility without delivering the one development that ultimately matters: a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and a normalization of regional energy flows," Ole Hansen head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, wrote.

Brent Crude Up 1.5% at Near US$106.50, NY Crude Up 1.7% at Near US$100 As Bloomberg TV Cites Report of Iran Supreme Leader Saying Uranium Must Stay In Iran

Market Chatter: Canada PM Carney Pitches Reluctant British Columbia on New Oil Pipeline to Fuel Asia

Prime Minister Mark Carney said people in British Columbia should see "substantial economic and financial benefits" from a proposed new oil pipeline to the province's coast, which BC Premier David Eby opposes, Bloomberg is reporting Wednesday.Last Friday, the neighboring province of Alberta signed a deal with Carney on energy rules, helping pave the way for a pipeline it is proposing to carry 1 million barrels of crude a day to the west coast for shipment to Asian markets, the report noted.It faces environmental and Indigenous resistance in BC, the report also noted.In an address to the Greater Vancouver Board of Trade, Carney said it would only be built under three conditions: benefits for BC, the building of a massive carbon capture project and consultation with Indigenous people.One item on the agenda is a national harmonized levy on carbon, Carney said. Last week's deal with Alberta included a lower carbon price than the previous federal minimum. The new lower figure will also now apply for all provinces, according to the government's website.The prime minister said he'll engage with BC and other provinces about the new threshold.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally, and/or from other media sources. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Update: WTI Plunges 5.7% as Trump Says an Iran Deal is Near

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply lower on Wednesday after as U.S. President Trump said negotiations with Iran were in their final stages while threatening to renew attacks if a deal cannot be reached.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.89 to settle at US$98.26 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$6.18 to US$105.10.Reuters reported Trump on Wednesday told reporters "We're in the final stages of Iran. We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen".Iranian media confirmed it received a fresh U.S. offer through an intermediary and is reviewing the proposed deal.The war has blocked the Strait of Hormuz since it began on Feb. 28, keeping the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations mostly off the market and producing the world's largest-ever supply shock. Though the closure of the Strait has already pushed oil prices up by more than half, analytics firm Woods Mackenzie said if the war is extended until the end of the year, oil prices could rise as high as US$200 per barrel, though a quick settlement could lower Brent prices to US$80 by year end."The Strait of Hormuz is the most critical chokepoint in global energy markets, and a prolonged closure would become far more than an energy crisis," said Peter Martin, head of economics at Wood Mackenzie. "The longer disruption persists, the greater the impact on energy prices, industrial activity, trade flows and global economic growth."The market is awaiting the start of the high-demand U.S. summer driving season, which begins with this weekend's Memorial Day holiday. The start of the season comes as U.S. oil inventories continue to decline, with the Energy Information Administration reporting U.S. commercial oil inventories fell 7.9-million barrels last week, well above consensus estimate for a drop of 2.9-million barrels among analysts polled by Reuters.