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Update: WTI Oil Plunges to a Month Low on Expectations the War on Iran is Nearing an End

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West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil plunged 5.6% on Wednesday on expectations the United States and Iran are nearing a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and end the largest-ever energy supply shock.

WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$5.21 to settle at US$88.68 per barrel, the lowest since April 20, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$5.30 to US$94.28.

The drop comes as United States and Iran continue negotiations to end their war and reopen the crucial waterway that is the chokepoint for the 20% of daily oil supply from Persian Gulf nations that has been closed since the Feb. 28 start to the war.

Talks between the two countries are continuing in Qatar and U.S. President Trump has repeatedly said a deal is near. Reuters reported Iranian State TV is saying it has seen a draft of "an initial, unofficial framework" for a peace agreement that sees the withdrawal of U.S. forces in the region while Iran and Oman will jointly managing shipping through the Strait.

Though oil prices have retreated from April highs above US$110 per barrel, there is little expectations prices will quickly return to pre-war levels as importers look to rebuild inventories.

"Even if a deal is reached, market normalization is likely to take months, with ongoing demand for replacement barrels and depleted inventories potentially leading to a higher price floor than the one seen before the war," Saxo Bank noted.

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