WTI Crude Oil Futures (July)

Update: WTI Oil Trading Near Four-Month Low as Talks Between US, Iran Progress

(Updates prices in the second paragraph and adds detail on the US waiver for Iranian exports in paragraph four.)West Texas Intermediate (WTI) closed at the lowest in more than three months on Monday as talks between Iran and the United States are progressing, raising hopes the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen and allow Persian Gulf energy exports to flow more freely, and the United States lifted sanctions on Iran's oil exports.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down 2.3% to settle at US$74.82 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen down 3.6% to US$77.70.US Vice President JD Vance said technical talks aimed at formalizing last week's memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran are progressing well, despite threats directed at Iran that President Donald Trump posted on social media over the weekend.A deal between the two countries could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand prior to the Feb. 28 start to the war. Tankers have started moving through the waterway and Iran has resumed exports. The United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq reportedly promised to deliver more oil to customers.The US Treasury Department on Monday granted Iran a 60-day waiver to freely export oil and petrochemicals, and to collect payments in US dollars.

Oil Trading at Near a Four-Month Low as Talks Between the U.S. and Iran Progress

Oil prices weakened early Monday on reports that talks between Iran and the United States are progressing, raising hopes the Strait of Hormuz could fully reopen and allow Persian Gulf energy exports to flow more freely.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down 1.1% to US$75.05 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was down 2% to US$78.97.The Guardian reported that U.S. Vice President JD Vance said technical talks aimed at formalizing last week's memorandum of understanding between the United States and Iran are progressing well, despite threats directed at Iran that U.S. President Donald Trump posted on social media over the weekend.A deal between the two countries could fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand prior to the Feb. 28 start to the war. Reuters reported tankers have begun moving through the waterway, with Iran beginning to resume exports while the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait and Iraq are promising to deliver more oil to customers."Despite a bumpy start, with Trump issuing fresh warnings towards Iran and Tehran responding with renewed threats to close the Strait of Hormuz, negotiations nevertheless showed signs of progress. The market continues to price in the prospect of an eventual reopening of the Strait and the release of millions of barrels currently stranded in the Persian Gulf.," Saxo Bank noted.

Oil Edges Up as the U.S. and Iran Suspend Peace Talks Amid Fresh Israeli Attacks in Lebanon

Oil prices edged higher early Friday as the postponement of U.S.-Iran talks and renewed hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon raised concerns about stability in the Middle East and the durability of a recently reached ceasefire.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up 0.7% to US$77.14 per barrel, while August Brent oil was up 0.2% to US$80.05.Talks between Iran and the United States were halted as Iran objected to Israel's continuing attacks in Lebanon, with the New York Times reporting Israel struck 80 targets in Lebanon Friday, killing and injuring dozens. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has refused to be bound by the terms of the U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding (MOU) reached on Wednesday that included a demand the country halt its attacks on its northern neighbor, threatening progress on negotiations to end the U.S. war on Iran.Planned talks between Iran and the United States in Switzerland were suspended due the heightened violence in Lebanon. However despite that, tankers trapped in the Gulf since the start of the war are still readying to move through the Strait of Hormuz as Iran ended its blockade of the key waterway, the chokepoint for Persian Gulf oil exports that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand."US-Iran talks will not begin on Friday after Israel reportedly refused to withdraw from Lebanon and halt attacks, a move Tehran claims violates the MOU's first clause. While flows through the Strait appear set to resume following the lifting of blockades, the latest developments highlight how fragile the agreement remains," Saxo Bank noted.

Update: WTI Oil Closes Higher As Details Of Iran-U.S. Peace Deal Emerge; IEA Expects Production To Surge In 2027

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed higher Wednesday, rising off the lowest in more than three months as details of the peace deal between Iran and the United States emerge, while the International Energy Agency sees inventories depleted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to return to surplus next year.WTI oil for July delivery closed up US$0.74 to settle at US$76.79 per barrel, rising off the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen up US$0.41 to US$79.37.Oil markets are settling as the memorandum of understanding reached by the United States and Iran to end their war looks to allow shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil shipment from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand.CNN said it obtained a copy of the deal, reporting the two countries agreed to restore normal shipping through the Strait within 30 days, while Iran will be allowed to resume exporting oil to global markets amid other concessions to Islamic Republic."The MoU declares an immediate ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but front-loads concrete economic benefits to Iran - oil export waivers, frozen asset releases, and naval blockade removal - while deferring all hard nuclear questions to a final agreement," Erik Meyersson, chief EM Strategist at SEB Research, wrote.Since the war began on Feb.28, oil-importing countries have depleted inventories amid the loss of most Persian Gulf supply. In its influential monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said global oil inventories fell by an average 3.8-million barrels per day since the start of the conflict, while it expects stocks to fall to record lows in coming months before the market returns to surplus late this year.The agency said it sees global demand down 1.1-million barrels per day this year, down 700,000 bpd from its May report, with 2026 annual supply down by an average 3.0-million bpd due to closure of the Strait. However the market is expected to return to a significant surplus in 2027, with the IEA seeing demand in the year to rebound by two-million bpd while global production surges."Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year. Global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d. By contrast, oil supplies look set to surge by around 8 mb/d to 110 mb/d. This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves," the agency said.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Up US$0.74; Settles at US$76.69 per Barrel

Oil Edges Higher Early As Details Of Iran-U.S. Peace Deal Emerge; IEA Expects Production To Surge In 2027

Oil edged higher early Wednesday, rising off the lowest in more than three months as details of the peace deal between Iran and the United States emerge, while the International Energy Agency sees inventories depleted by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to return to surplus next year.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$0.87 to US$76.92 per barrel, rising off the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was up US$0.69 to US$79.66.Oil markets are settling as the memorandum of understanding reached by the United States and Iran to end their war reached on the weekend looks to resume shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for oil shipment from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand.While the text of the MoU has not yet been released, CNN said it obtained a copy of the deal, reporting the two countries agreed to restore normal shipping through the Strait within 30 days, while Iran will be allowed to resume exporting oil to global markets amid other concessions to Islamic Republic."The MoU declares an immediate ceasefire and reopens the Strait of Hormuz, but front-loads concrete economic benefits to Iran - oil export waivers, frozen asset releases, and naval blockade removal - while deferring all hard nuclear questions to a final agreement," Erik Meyersson, chief EM Strategist at SEB Research, wrote.Since the war began on Feb.28, oil-importing countries have depleted inventories amid the loss of most Persian Gulf supply. In its influential monthly Oil Market Report, the International Energy Agency said global oil inventories fell by an average 3.8-million barrels per day since the start of the conflict, while it expects stocks to fall to record lows in coming months before the market returns to surplus late this year.The agency said it sees global demand down 1.1-million barrels per day this year, down 700,000 bpd from its May report, with 2026 annual supply down by an average 3.0-million bpd due to closure of the Strait. However the market is expected to return to a significant surplus in 2027, with the IEA seeing demand in the year to rebound by two-million bpd while global production surges."Our first look at 2027 balances shows a significant overhang emerging next year. Global oil demand is projected to rise by a relatively modest 2 mb/d to 105.3 mb/d. By contrast, oil supplies look set to surge by around 8 mb/d to 110 mb/d. This may provide a welcome respite to the market and an opportunity to replenish depleted inventories, or to build new strategic reserves," the agency said.

Brent Crude Up 0.1% at Just Above US$79 and NY Crude Flat To Slightly Higher At Above US$76

Update: WTI Oil Falls 5.8% on Hopes for a Quick Return of Persian Gulf Supply Following the Iran-U.S. Truce

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) fell for a fourth-straight session on Tuesday, closing down 5.8% on expectations supply is on the rise as the market anticipates the weekend truce between Iran and the United States will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$4.70 to settle at US$76.05 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen down $4.46 to US$78.71.Oil is down 17% in the past four sessions as the market expects a return of Persian Gulf supply as the U.S and Iran reached a truce in the war that produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, shutting in much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by countries in the region.While terms of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, ships are expected to soon begin openly transiting the Strait that has been blocked since the Feb. 28 start to the war, boosting supply to the mostly Asian markets that depend on Gulf exports. Indeed, the Wall Street Journal reported the United States is already allowing Iran to ship oil through the Strait.However the war has damaged oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf nations following Iranian attacks on its neighbors, while shut-in oilfields could be slow to restart, keeping supply below pre-war levels, even as the market anticipates a quick return of the region's production."The (price) reaction highlights how quickly markets have shifted from pricing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history to focusing on recovery. Brent crude, which briefly traded above USD 120 per barrel during the height of the crisis, has fallen back toward the low USD 80s as traders anticipate a return of stranded supply and easing market tightness. Even so, prices remain well above the pre-war USD 60-70 range.," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$4.70, or 5.8%, Settles at US$76.05 per Barrel

Oil Prices Fall Again on Hopes for a Quick Return of Persian Gulf Supply Following the Iran-U.S. Truce

Oil prices fell for a fourth-straight session early Tuesday on expectations supply is on the rise as the market anticipates the weekend truce between Iran and the United States will reopen the Strait of Hormuz and free tankers trapped in the Persian Gulf since the start of the conflict.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down $2.89 to US$77.86 per barrel, the lowest since March 3, while August Brent oil was down $2.97 to US$80.20.Oil is now down 14% in the past four sessions as the market expects a return of Persian Gulf supply as the U.S and Iran reached a truce in the war that produced the largest-ever energy supply shock, shutting in much of the 20% of daily oil demand supplied by countries in the region.While terms of the agreement have not yet been disclosed, ships are expected to soon begin openly transiting the Strait that has been blocked since the Feb. 28 start to the war, boosting supply to the mostly Asian markets that depend on Gulf exports.However the war has damaged oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf nations following Iranian attacks on its neighbors, while shut-in oilfields could be slow to restart, keeping supply below pre-war levels, even as the market anticipates a quick return of the region's production."The (price) reaction highlights how quickly markets have shifted from pricing the largest oil supply disruption in modern history to focusing on recovery. Brent crude, which briefly traded above USD 120 per barrel during the height of the crisis, has fallen back toward the low USD 80s as traders anticipate a return of stranded supply and easing market tightness. Even so, prices remain well above the pre-war USD 60-70 range.," Ole Hansen, head commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said.

Brent Crude Down 2% at Near US$81.50 and NY Crude Down 2.25% at Under US$79

Update: WTI Oil Slumps as Iran and the United States Agree to a Truce, Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed sharply lower on Monday after the United States and Iran reached a truce in the war that has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of the daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$4.13 to settle at US$80.75 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil was last seen down US$4.12 to US$83.21.In a deal brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran on Sunday reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal will see the Strait reopening on Friday, releasing tankers trapped in the Gulf and freeing up oil exports from the region. A final deal is expected to take up to two months to reach.The war has forced importing countries to draw down stockpiles, depleting global inventories that had been swelled by over-production prior to the start of the war. Iranian attacks on its regional neighbors damaged crucial oil infrastructure and shut in producing producing oil fields, which will take at least months to restore pre-war output, likely keeping prices elevated for months."Whether prices, currently around US$13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices. The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market," Saxo Bank noted.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$4.13; Settles at US$80.75 per Barrel

Oil Prices Slump as Iran and the United States Agree to a Truce, Reopening the Strait of Hormuz

Oil traded sharply lower early Monday after the United States and Iran reached a truce in the war that has blocked off the Strait of Hormuz, the chokepoint for a fifth of the daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$4.36 to US$80.52 per barrel, the lowest since March 4, while August Brent oil down US$4.07 to US$83.26.In a deal brokered by Pakistan, the United States and Iran on Sunday reached a memorandum of understanding to end the war launched by the U.S. and Israel on Feb. 28. According to the Wall Street Journal, the deal will see the Strait reopened on Friday, releasing tankers trapped in the Gulf and freeing up oil exports from the region. A final deal is expected to take up to two months to reach.The war has forced importing countries to draw down stockpiles, depleting global inventories that had been swelled by over-production prior to the start of the war. Iranian attacks on its regional neighbors damaged crucial oil infrastructure and shut in producing producing oil fields, which will take at least months to restore pre-war output, likely keeping prices elevated for months."Whether prices, currently around US$13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices. The speed at which supply chains normalise and export flows recover will also play a key role in determining how much of the geopolitical risk premium remains embedded in the market," Saxo Bank noted.

Update: WTI Oil Falls to a Two-Month Low on Reports a U.S. Peace Deal With Iran is Near

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil fell for a second day on Friday, falling to the lowest in nearly two months on expectations the United States and Iran are near a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$2.893 to settle at US$84.88 per barrel, the lowest since April 17, while August Brent oil was last seen down US$3.11 to US$87.27.The drop comes as U.S. President Trump on Thursday said he canceled planned attacks on Iran and said a peace deal with the country is near. Reports said a deal could be signed this weekend, however the Wall Street Journal said Iran has not yet agreed to the peace proposal, though Qatar's leader, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, which is mediating talks, confirmed progress is being made on a agreement.A deal could see the Strait of Hormuz reopen freeing up trapped supplies from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied about 20% of daily oil demand before the Strait was closed to shipping at the Feb. 28 start of the war. Traders are expecting a peace deal to offer a quick boost to supply as tankers trapped within the Gulf since the Strait was closed move to market, easing worries over depleted inventories and ending the largest ever supply shock."Oil slumped after President Trump talked up another peace deal, with markets this time appearing increasingly willing to believe it may be for real, despite the lack of confirmation from Tehran. Brent crude fell to a two-month low amid expectations of a surge in supply from tankers currently stranded in the Gulf," Saxo Bank wrote.Still, a recovery of normal supply from the Persian Gulf is expected to be slow, as damage to infrastructure from the war is repaired and countries in the region restart shut-in oil fields, continuing the draw down on global inventories that began with the start of the conflict."Once the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually begins to resume and shut-in oil production increasingly restarts, we assume (Brent) oil prices will begin to fall, decreasing to an average of $89/b by 4Q26. We assess that most shut-in oil production will be fully restored in 1Q27 and that global oil inventories will again start building, gradually lowering oil prices to an average of $79/b in 2027," the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Oil Energy Outlook released this week.

Oil Falls to a Two-Month Low on Reports a U.S. Peace Deal With Iran is Near

Oil prices fell for a second day early on Friday, falling to the lowest in nearly two months on expectations the United States and Iran are near a deal to end their war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen down US$3.07 to US$84.64, the lowest since April 17, while August Brent oil was down US$2.95 to US$87.43.The drop comes as U.S. President Trump on Thursday said he canceled planned attacks on Iran and said a peace deal with the country is near. Reports said a deal could be signed this weekend, however the Wall Street Journal said Iran has not yet agreed to the peace proposal, though Qatar's leader, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad al-Thani, which is mediating talks, confirmed progress is being made on a agreement.A deal could see the Strait of Hormuz reopen freeing up trapped supplies from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied about 20% of daily oil demand before the Strait was closed to shipping at the Feb. 28 start of the war. Traders are expecting a peace deal to offer a quick boost to supply as tankers trapped within the Gulf since the Strait was closed move to market, easing worries over depleted inventories and ending the largest ever supply shock."Oil slumped after President Trump talked up another peace deal, with markets this time appearing increasingly willing to believe it may be for real, despite the lack of confirmation from Tehran. Brent crude fell to a two-month low amid expectations of a surge in supply from tankers currently stranded in the Gulf," Saxo Bank wrote.Still, a recovery of normal supply from the Persian Gulf is expected to be slow, as damage to infrastructure from the war is repaired and countries in the region restart shut-in oil fields, continuing the draw down on global inventories began with the start of the conflict."Once the traffic through the Strait of Hormuz gradually begins to resume and shut-in oil production increasingly restarts, we assume (Brent) oil prices will begin to fall, decreasing to an average of $89/b by 4Q26. We assess that most shut-in oil production will be fully restored in 1Q27 and that global oil inventories will again start building, gradually lowering oil prices to an average of $79/b in 2027," the U.S. Energy Information Administration said in its monthly Short-Term Oil Energy Outlook released this week.

Update: WTI Closes Lower as Trump Cancels Iran Attacks, Says Peace Talks to Resume

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil closed lower on Thursday, falling off session highs after U.S. President Trump canceled planned attacks on Iran and said talks may be resuming.WTI oil for July delivery closed down US$2.32 to settle at US$87.71 per barrel, falling off a session high of US$93.64, while July Brent oil was last seen down US$2.86 to US$90.24.In a social media post, Trump said he is canceling the attacks planned for Iran today, saying "Based on the fact that discussions with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been brought to the highest level of Iranian leadership and approved, I have, as President of the United States of America, cancelled the scheduled strikes and bombings against Iran this evening".Trump added "Discussions and final points have been, in both concept and great detail, approved by all parties involved, including the United States, Israel, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Turkey, Pakistan, Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Egypt, and others .However Iranian media reported Iran has not yet approved any text for the agreement.Trump has frequently promised a quick end the war that has shut in the Strait of Hormuz, blocking much of the one-fifth of daily oil demand supplied by Persian Gulf nations. Any deal to end the conflict would restore much of that supply, but not immediately as infrastructure is repaired and oilfields restarted.The lack of supply is cutting into oil inventories, with the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reporting U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 7.2-milllion barrels last week, well above the consensus estimate for a 4.0-million barrel drop among analysts polled by Reuters.

July WTI Crude Oil Contract Closes Down US$2.32; Settles at US$87.71 per Barrel

Oil Trading Higher as Fresh Fighting in the War on Iran Threatens to Prolong the Energy Supply Shock

Oil prices rose early on Thursday as the United States launched a new round of attacks on Iran, ending a ceasefire between the two and keeping the Strait of Hormuz blocked for most shipping.West Texas Intermediate crude oil for July delivery was last seen up US$0.75 to US$90.78 per barrel, while July Brent oil was up US$0.41 to US$93.51.U.S. President Trump on Wednesday ordered fresh strikes on Iranian targets amid frustration Iran is stalling negotiations to end the war that has produced the largest ever energy supply shock. Iran responded by launching attacks on Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain. Iran also said it will completely close the Strait of Hormuz, keeping oil exports from the Persian Gulf nations that supplied a fifth of daily oil demand mostly off the market.The Wall Street Journal reported the fighting came as Trump said Iran is "playing us for suckers" as he looks to force the country to resume negotiations over its nuclear stockpiles. U.S. forces had been accompanying tankers through the Strait, with Bloomberg reporting ships carrying more than 100-million barrels of oil have passed through the waterway since it began protecting shipping in the region, though renewed fighting may heighten the risk to shipping."US forces struck targets in Iran for a second consecutive day. Renewed hostilities threaten to prolong the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which has severely disrupted flows of crude oil, refined fuels, and natural gas since the conflict escalated in late February," Saxo Bank noted.The lack of supply is cutting into oil inventories, with the Energy Information Administration on Wednesday reporting U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 7.2-milllion barrels last week, well above the consensus estimate for a 4.0-million barrel drop among analysts polled by Reuters.

Update: WTI Oil Rises as Iran and the U.S. Trade Attacks While U.S. Oil Inventories Fall Again

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil rose on Wednesday on renewed fighting between the United States and Iran, while a report showed U.S. oil inventories fell for an eighth week.WTi oil for July delivery closed up US$1.83 to settle at US$90.03 per barrel, while August Brent oil was last seen up US$2.23 to US$93.78.The rise comes on a fresh clash between the United States and Iran. Iran on Tuesday shot down a U.S. helicopter and the U.S. responded with attacks on Iranian targets. According to the Wall Street Journal, Iran also attacked U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf region, as well as Jordan.The fighting is lowering hopes for a peace deal between Iran and the United States, leaving the Strait of Hormuz closed to shipping and keeping most oil exports from Persian Gulf nations, which supplied a fifth of daily oil demand, off the market.In its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Tuesday, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported the closure of the Strait is depleting global inventories, keeping prices high."Global oil markets remain highly volatile as very limited shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has caused oil producers in the Middle East to reduce crude oil production by more than 11 million barrels per day (b/d) in May compared with pre-conflict levels. This drop in production has resulted in large global inventory draws to meet demand. Under our assumptions, we expect global oil inventories will fall by an average of 6.3 million b/d in 2Q26 and by 7.6 million b/d in 3Q26," the agency said.In its weekly survey, the EIA reported U.S. commercial oil inventories fell by 7.2-milllion barrels last week, well above the consensus estimate for a 4.0-million barrel drop among analysts polled by Reuters.