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US Airlines Seen Setting Q3 Profit Guidance Above Consensus, UBS Says
US Markets

US Airlines Seen Setting Q3 Profit Guidance Above Consensus, UBS Says

US airlines are expected to issue above-consensus earnings guidance for the third quarter, while second-quarter profit likely met expectations, UBS Securities said Tuesday in a report.Jet fuel prices have fallen about 30% in the past month, and travel demand has stayed firm even as fares rose, the report said. Fuel costs had surged on Middle East supply disruptions, and prices have since eased after the US-Iran agreement to halt fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.With fuel pressure easing from a year earlier and fares higher than in the second quarter, UBS expects revenue growth to accelerate in the third quarter.While there are some unit-cost headwinds for certain carriers, "the positive revenue and fuel dynamics are driving the expected EPS upside" for the third quarter," the report said.UBS projects low-double-digit to mid-teens revenue growth for major US airlines in the second quarter, with broadly in-line earnings.Demand remained solid through the quarter, consistent with company outlooks, and jet fuel generally tracked guidance assumptions, the report said.UBS named American Airlines Group (AAL) and United Airlines Holdings (UAL) as its top picks ahead of second-quarter results. American's profitability is highly sensitive to fuel prices and should benefit from strong industry demand, while United has "meaningful earnings upside" from revenue momentum and lower fuel costs, with room for full-year guidance to move higher, the report said.UBS reiterated its buy ratings on Delta Air Lines (DAL), Southwest Airlines (LUV) and Alaska Air Group (ALK).Price: $16.13, Change: $+0.05, Percent Change: +0.31%

$AAL$ALK$DAL$LUV$UAL
Wire

Airlines Gain on Pricing as 'Capacity Discipline' Becomes Key Into Summer, BofA Says

Airlines are benefiting from strong demand, rising fares and lower fuel costs alongside flat capacity, with future gains hinging on whether "capacity discipline" holds as comparisons tighten into the summer, BofA Securities said Monday in a report.The Airline Fare Consumer Price Index in May rose almost 27% from a year earlier, and the Air Passenger Services Producer Price Index increased 14%, the report said. The Airline Reporting Corp.'s average ticket price rose more than 18%, with economy fares continuing to outperform premium cabins for a third straight month, BofA said.Into June, Bank of America's "aggregated credit and debit card data suggests momentum remains intact, with airline spending returning to double-digit growth, supported by strength in spend per transaction," the report said.Near-term comparisons will tighten as the industry enters peak summer, following an easier Q2 backdrop, BofA said. Late June and July will be key in determining whether current demand strength can persist as comparisons from a year earlier normalize, the report said.BofA raised its price target to $93 from $78 on Delta Air Lines (DAL), to $145 from $140 on United Airlines (UAL), and to $16 from $14 on American Airlines (AAL).Delta shares rose 1.8% in Monday trading, United climbed 0.9%, and American advanced 2.8%.Price: $85.72, Change: $+1.54, Percent Change: +1.83%

$AAL$DAL$UAL
Wire

BofA Adjusts Price Target on American Airlines to $16 From $14

American Airlines Group (AAL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $15.90, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $16.31, Change: $+0.32, Percent Change: +2.00%

$AAL
Wire

American Airlines, Google Sign Agreement for Sustainable Aviation Fuel Certificates

American Airlines (AAL) and Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google entered into an agreement for sustainable aviation fuel certificates, the companies said Tuesday.The agreement will unlock 35 million gallons of sustainable aviation fuel over three years, with American purchasing and taking delivery of the physical fuel for Chicago O'Hare International Airport through existing infrastructure, the companies said.Additionally, Google will receive the environmental benefits to help address its emissions from employee business travel through the sustainable aviation fuel certificates registry, according to the companies.Financial terms related to the agreement were not disclosed.Price: $13.84, Change: $+0.24, Percent Change: +1.73%

$AAL$GOOG$GOOGL
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of American Airlines Group Inc. To Sell From Hold

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We lower our opinion on AAL to Sell from Hold, reduce our price target by $1 to $12, and cut our 2026 EPS to -$0.07 from $0.48 and 2027's to $1.72 from $1.93, primarily reflecting fuel costs. Our target reflects 7x 2027 EPS (from 6.5x), with the modest multiple expansion reflecting strong underlying industry travel trends despite higher airfare, partially offsetting our estimate reductions. In our view, AAL is most exposed to fuel costs, given a higher unit cost profile and lagging unit revenue performance versus peers. While Q1 unit revenue rose 6.5% Y/Y, the spread between AAL's unit revenue and unit costs (+5.2% Y/Y) is tighter than peers and could result in operating losses more quickly. This profile justifies our discounted multiple versus peers in the high-single-digit range. AAL is also leaning into summer capacity, potentially driving higher fuel consumption at elevated prices. We see limited margin for error if fuel headwinds persist. A key upside risk is oil prices easing faster than expected.

$AAL
Wire

Top Midday Stories: Micron's Market Cap Briefly Hits $1 Trillion; Qualcomm Reportedly Strikes AI Chip Deal With ByteDance

The Nasdaq Composite and S&P 500 were up, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down slightly to kick off a shortened week of trading due to the holiday weekend.In company news, Micron Technology's (MU) market capitalization eclipsed $1 trillion for the first time Tuesday after several bullish analyst reports. Micron shares were up 16% around midday.Qualcomm (QCOM) is set to supply ByteDance with millions of chips for AI data centers to support the TikTok owner's AI agent software under a new deal the companies struck, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter. Qualcomm shares were up over 5%.Ferrari (RACE) has launched a new all-electric sports car called Luce, the company said Monday. The four-door model includes four electric motors, a 122 kWh battery and electric all-wheel drive, delivering 0-100 km/h acceleration in 2.5 seconds, the company said. The EV's starting price is 550,000 euros ($640,000), multiple media outlets reported. Ferrari shares were down 4.7%.Eli Lilly (LLY) has agreed to acquire Curevo, LimmaTech Biologics and Vaccine Company in deals worth up to nearly $3.83 billion in total, the company said Tuesday. The deals include potential payments of up to $1.5 billion for Curevo, up to $780 million for LimmaTech and up to $1.55 billion for Vaccine Company, the company said. Eli Lilly shares were up 1.2%.BP (BP) said Tuesday its board unanimously decided to remove Albert Manifold as chair and director, effective immediately. BP shares were down 4.6%.AutoZone (AZO) reported fiscal Q3 net income Tuesday of $38.07 per diluted share, up from $35.36 a year earlier and above the FactSet consensus analyst estimate of $36.21. Fiscal Q3 net sales were $4.84 billion, up from $4.46 billion a year ago but below the FactSet consensus of $4.86 billion. AutoZone shares were down 11.3%.Modine Manufacturing (MOD) on Tuesday said it signed a major long-term agreement with one of its strategic data center customers to supply its Airedale cooling solutions. Under the terms of the agreement, Modine said it will reserve production capacity to supply over $4 billion worth of Airedale by Modine cooling products between 2027 and 2029. The customer has also provided an upfront payment of $165 million to support capacity expansion and other investments required to meet future demand, the company said. Modine shares were up 19%.American Airlines Group (AAL) said Tuesday it is installing SpaceX's Starlink to provide wireless internet on over 500 of its narrowbody aircraft starting in Q1 2027. American Airlines shares were up 6%.Price: $872.85, Change: $+121.85, Percent Change: +16.23%

$AAL$AZO$BP$LLY$MOD$MU$QCOM$RACE
Wire

American Airlines to Install Starlink for In-Flight Wi-Fi on Over 500 Planes

American Airlines Group (AAL) said Tuesday it is installing SpaceX's Starlink to provide wireless internet on over 500 of its narrowbody aircraft starting Q1 2027.Shares of American Airlines were up about 6% in Tuesday trading.Price: $14.68, Change: $+0.83, Percent Change: +5.96%

$AAL
US Consumers' Air Travel Intentions Largely Steady Despite High Fuel Cost, UBS Survey Shows
US Markets

US Consumers' Air Travel Intentions Largely Steady Despite High Fuel Cost, UBS Survey Shows

US consumers' air travel intentions for leisure purposes leveled off in March year over year despite higher fuel costs and geopolitical concerns, UBS Securities said in a note sent Tuesday.The brokerage conducted a survey of 6,877 consumers across the world, including 1,754 in the US, from March to early April.Crude oil prices soared after the US and Israel launched attacks against Iran at the end of February, disrupting shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz.Plans to undertake leisure travel in the US over the next 12 months slipped to 82.8% from 83.1% a year ago, but remained above March 2024 levels, the survey results showed. Business travel intentions decreased on an annual basis, but rose from two years ago."The key takeaway was that intentions among US consumers to undertake leisure and business travel over the next 12 months remain high," UBS analysts, including Atul Maheswari, wrote in the note. "The survey results show that significantly more US consumers expect to increase spend in the next 12 months than spend less on their trips -- a trend that's consistent with last year's survey."There was an annual moderation in those citing plans to travel more with large US carriers Delta Air Lines (DAL), United Airlines (UAL), American Airlines (AAL), and Southwest Airlines (LUV), according to UBS. However, the number of consumers willing to travel about the same with each of the four airlines increased.Most consumers consider price as the most important factor when purchasing airline tickets for leisure travel, while about half of the survey respondents look at destination and airline brand, according to UBS."Airline brand was meaningfully more important than (three) years ago as was seat class. This should bode well for the larger airlines with a stronger loyalty/premium offering," Maheswari said, referring to Delta, United, American, and Alaska Air (ALK).Price: $68.35, Change: $-1.89, Percent Change: -2.69%

$AAL$ALK$DAL$LUV$UAL
Wire

Market Chatter: United Airlines Wary of Pursuing Smaller Acquisitions Like JetBlue

United Airlines (UAL) Chief Executive Scott Kirby said that pursuing an acquisition of a smaller airline like JetBlue Airlines (JBLU) might not be worth the intensive effort required, The New York Times reported Wednesday.In an interview, Kirby told The Times that "doing a merger takes a lot of calories and a lot of energy, and it's about the same amount of calories and energy regardless of the size of the merger."The interview comes just days after Kirby raised the idea of a potential merger with American Airlines (AAL), but was rebuffed, according to the report.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $88.03, Change: $-2.38, Percent Change: -2.64%

$AAL$JBLU$UAL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer Stocks Fall Late Afternoon

Consumer stocks fell late Monday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) declining 1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.6%.In corporate news, United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby confirmed he approached rival American Airlines (AAL) about a possible merger, and American declined to engage, closing the door on a deal. Separately, American is selling $1.14 billion of bonds financing a group of planes, Bloomberg reported. United shares fell 1.2%, and American dropped 3%.Domino's Pizza (DPZ) reported weaker-than-expected Q1 results on Monday, with the company's CEO saying consumer uncertainty and inflation weighed on demand late in the quarter. Its shares slumped past 9%.Verizon Communications (VZ) lifted its full-year earnings outlook on Monday and reported a Q1 bottom line above market estimates, while it unexpectedly added postpaid phone subscribers in the three-month period. Its shares rose 1.2%.Toyota Motor (TM) reported Monday total worldwide sales of 897,871 vehicles in March, down 7.3% from a year earlier. Toyota shares were fractionally higher.

$AAL$DPZ$TM$UAL$VZ
US Markets

Airline Capacity Deployment Slowdown Amid High Fuel Prices Could Hit Aircraft Lessors, Deutsche Bank Says

Aircraft lessors could be impacted by a projected slowdown in airline capacity deployment globally amid elevated jet fuel prices triggered by the Middle East conflict, Deutsche Bank said Monday.Energy prices have soared following the US-Israel war with Iran that has disrupted shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, the world's most important chokepoint for crude flows.The conflict, which paused following a ceasefire between the US and Iran and later between Israel and Lebanon, has pushed jet fuel prices past $4 a gallon, according to Deutsche Bank."While aircraft lessors are not directly impacted (by high fuel prices) like airlines with higher operating costs, they are indirectly affected by changes in supply and demand for aircraft," Deutsche Bank analyst Shannon Doherty said in a note to clients Monday. "We cannot ignore the fact that surging jet fuel prices will lead to a slowing of global airline capacity deployment, with groundings a possibility among the financially weakest operators."Last week, American Airlines (AAL) and United Airlines (UAL) lowered their full-year earnings projections. United Airlines said at the time it faced headwinds in the first quarter, including a $340 million increase in fuel expense, compared with a year earlier.Qatar Airways recently contacted lessors to potentially defer or reduce rental payments, Deutsche Bank said Monday. If other airlines request similar favors and aircraft lessors opt to provide that relief, new terms will likely be net present value-positive over the longer term for lessors, according to the note.A premium multiple to AerCap Holdings' (AER) book value is "justified" given its diversified asset fleet earning mid-double-digit return on equity, Doherty said. An undersupply of aircraft assets is "structural" and is expected to last through the end of the decade, the brokerage wrote."AerCap represents one of the best ways to play this theme given the high demand for aircraft, its large orderbook, durable earnings, and high visibility into future cash flows given the long duration nature of its lease contracts," Doherty said.Price: $137.95, Change: $-0.14, Percent Change: -0.10%

$AAL$AER$FTAI$UAL
Sectors

Sector Update: Consumer

Consumer stocks fell late Monday afternoon with the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) declining 1% and the State Street Consumer Discretionary Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLY) shedding 0.6%.In corporate news, United Airlines (UAL) CEO Scott Kirby confirmed he approached rival American Airlines (AAL) about a possible merger, and American declined to engage, closing the door on a deal. Separately, American is selling $1.14 billion of bonds financing a group of planes, Bloomberg reported. United shares fell 1.5%, and American dropped 3.1%.

$AAL$UAL
US Markets

United Airlines CEO Confirms Approach to American Regarding Potential Merger

United Airlines (UAL) Chief Executive Scott Kirby confirmed Monday that he approached fellow carrier American Airlines (AAL) about a possible merger, but the latter declined to engage and closed the door on a deal.A potential combination between the two companies could have expanded service to "smaller communities," increased the total number of economy seats in the marketplace, offered affordable prices to customers and built a more globally competitive US airline, Kirby said in a statement. The merger could have boosted the US economy and created "millions of jobs," among other benefits, Kirby added."I was hoping to pitch that story to American, but they declined to engage and instead responded by publicly closing the door," Kirby said. "Without a willing partner, something this big simply can't get done."American Airlines didn't immediately respond to' request for comment.American Airlines shares were down 2.7% in Monday afternoon trade, while United Airlines fell 1.4%.Earlier this month, American Airlines said it wasn't interested in any talks regarding a merger with United Airlines, adding that it would be "negative for competition and for consumers." Any deal would also have been "inconsistent" with the Trump administration's philosophy towards the industry and antitrust law, the company said at the time.During an earnings conference call with analysts last week, American Airlines CEO Robert Isom said a potential combination with United Airlines would have been "anticompetitive.""Everybody that has weighed in suggests the same thing," Isom told analysts, according to a FactSet transcript. "Bad for customers, bad for the industry, and then ultimately -- that'd be bad for American Airlines."American Airlines' public comments "make it clear that a merger like this is off the table for the foreseeable future," Kirby said Monday.US President Donald Trump reportedly voiced his opposition to the combination in a recent interview with CNBC, saying he didn't "like" having the two airlines merge.Last week, American Airlines reported that its first-quarter adjusted per-share loss narrowed year over year, while operating revenue increased. The carrier cut its 2026 earnings outlook at the time. Separately, United Airlines reported better-than-expected first-quarter results, but lowered its full-year earnings outlook amid rising fuel costs.Price: $91.69, Change: $-1.31, Percent Change: -1.41%

$AAL$UAL
Wire

Market Chatter: American Airlines Selling Bonds Worth $1.14 Billion for 32 Planes

American Airlines Group (AAL) is selling $1.14 billion of bonds financing a group of planes, Bloomberg reported Monday, citing a person familiar with the matter.The securities are known as enhanced equipment trust certificates, collateralized by 32 new and existing planes of the company, according to the report.It is offering notes in two parts, with an average life of 7.7 years for the longer portion, the report said. Initial discussions suggest the longer-dated notes, a $905.04 million offering, could yield somewhere around 5.625%, Bloomberg said.American Airlines did not immediately respond to a request for comment by.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $11.85, Change: $-0.25, Percent Change: -2.11%

$AAL
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lowers Opinion On Shares Of American Airlines Group Inc. From Buy To Hold

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We keep our 12-month target at $13, 6.5x our 2027 EPS estimate (unchanged), a discount to the 10-year mean of 8.5x, reflecting heightened earnings risk. We lower our 2026 EPS to $0.48 from $0.74 and 2027's to $1.93 from $1.98, primarily reflecting higher fuel costs partially offset by strong demand and increasing passenger ticket yields. We are downgrading our opinion from Buy to Hold, viewing management's expected $4 billion increase in fuel costs as a significant earnings headwind. Our 2026 EPS estimate is above the midpoint of AAL's 2026 guidance range of -$0.40 to $1.10, reflecting our view that strong travel demand and pricing power are an offset. However, we believe the risk/reward remains unfavorable. While AAL has demonstrated impressive revenue momentum, with Q1 unit revenue up 7.6%, Atlantic revenue up 16.7%, and managed corporate revenue up 13%, the magnitude of fuel cost inflation creates substantial earnings volatility that is difficult to fully offset through pricing or operational efficiency.

$AAL
Research

Research Alert: Aal: Q1 Loss Narrows On Strong Revenue Growth; Fuel Remains Key Headwind

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:AAL reported Q1 adjusted loss of $0.40 per share vs. -$0.50 in the prior year and better than consensus' -$0.46. Total revenue of $13.9B, up 10.8%, beat $13.7B consensus driven by strong unit revenue growth of 7.6%. Atlantic flights were up 16.7%. We view this as strong top-line performance with the company's strategic priorities gaining traction, particularly premium revenue generation and loyalty program engagement where AAdvantage enrollments rose 25%. Full-year EPS guidance of -$0.40 to $1.10 (midpoint $0.35) exceeded the -$0.12 consensus with Q2 revenue growth expected at 13.5%-16.5%. Premium seats are expanding twice as fast as Main Cabin capacity through new deliveries, supporting higher-margin revenue streams. Total debt declined to $34.7B, the lowest since mid-2015, providing strategic flexibility. We believe management's focus on premium revenue and cost discipline positions AAL well for sustained improvement as fuel pressures moderate.

$AAL
Wire

Top Midday Stories: QXO to Acquire TopBuild for $17 Billion; Eli Lilly to Buy Kelonia for Up to $7 Billion

All three major US stock indexes fell in late-morning trading Monday as tensions between the US and Iran escalated over the weekend.In company news, QXO (QXO) agreed to acquire TopBuild (BLD) for $17 billion. TopBuild shareholders can elect $505 a share in cash or 20.2 QXO common shares for each TopBuild share they own, subject to a cap that limits cash to 45% of the total consideration. The deal is expected to close in Q3. QXO shares fell 7.2% around midday, and TopBuild rose 17%.Eli Lilly (LLY) agreed to acquire Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion in cash, including an upfront payment of $3.25 billion and subsequent payouts based on certain clinical, regulatory and commercial milestones. The deal is expected to close in H2. Eli Lilly shares rose 0.2%.Alphabet's (GOOG, GOOGL) Google is in talks with Marvell Technology (MRVL) to develop two new processors optimized for AI inference tasks, The Information reported Sunday, citing two people with knowledge of the discussions. Alphabet shares fell 0.9%, and Marvell rose 4.1%.American Airlines Group (AAL) said late Friday it was not engaged with or interested in talks about a merger with United Airlines Holdings (UAL). American shares fell 4.4%, and United dropped 2.3%.Brady (BRC) agreed to acquire Honeywell International's (HON) productivity solutions and services business for $1.4 billion in cash. Brady shares eased 0.1%, and Honeywell fell 1.2%.Price: $23.19, Change: $-1.81, Percent Change: -7.24%

$AAL$BLD$BRC$GOOG$GOOGL$HON$LLY$MRVL$QXO$UAL
Wire

Market Chatter: White House Holds No Opinion on Reports of Proposed Merger Between United, American Airlines

The White House has no opinion on reports that United Airlines (UAL) is considering a merger with American Airlines (AAL), press secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday, according to a Reuters report.Leavitt told reporters that the idea has been proposed by the industry, but is not something the president of the White House have an opinion on, Reuters said.In late February, United's chief executive officer Scott Kirby proposed the merger between the two carriers in a meeting with President Donald Trump, the news outlet said, citing two sources.United, American did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $95.25, Change: $-1.92, Percent Change: -1.97%

$AAL$UAL
Wire

US Airlines Head Into Q1 Earnings With Demand Trends, M&A Chatter in Focus, UBS Says

United Airlines (UAL), Alaska Air Group (ALK), American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV) are heading into next week's Q1 earnings with investor attention centered on demand trends, unit-revenue guidance and renewed consolidation speculation, UBS Securities said Tuesday in a report.Delta Air Lines' (DAL) strong demand trends and low-teens Q2 revenue outlook set a high bar for the sector, with investors watching whether peers can sustain similar momentum or show signs of normalization, the report said.For United Airlines, UBS expects mid-teens Q2 revenue growth and above-consensus earnings, supported by improving year-over-year comparisons at its Newark, New Jersey, hub, strong premium demand and scenario-based full-year guidance.American Airlines is expected to post mid-teens Q2 revenue growth with a modest earnings loss, with potential upside from corporate share recapture but a likely wider guidance range or suspension of full-year targets, the report said.Southwest Airlines is expected to deliver high-teens unit-revenue growth and above-consensus earnings, with a suspension of full-year guidance anticipated as the carrier continues to advance its transformation strategy, UBS said.Results are due for Alaska Air on Monday, United on Tuesday, Southwest on April 22 and American on April 23.United shares fell 2.5% in Wednesday trading, Alaska Air eased 0.2%, American rose 1.1%, Southwest gained 1.2%, and Delta advanced 1%.Price: $94.79, Change: $-2.38, Percent Change: -2.45%

$AAL$ALK$DAL$LUV$UAL
Wire

UBS Raises American Airlines Price Target to $16 From $14, Maintains Buy Rating

American Airlines (AAL) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $15.01, according to analysts polled by FactSet.Price: $12.21, Change: $+0.07, Percent Change: +0.62%

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