CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:
We lower our opinion on AAL to Sell from Hold, reduce our price target by $1 to $12, and cut our 2026 EPS to -$0.07 from $0.48 and 2027's to $1.72 from $1.93, primarily reflecting fuel costs. Our target reflects 7x 2027 EPS (from 6.5x), with the modest multiple expansion reflecting strong underlying industry travel trends despite higher airfare, partially offsetting our estimate reductions. In our view, AAL is most exposed to fuel costs, given a higher unit cost profile and lagging unit revenue performance versus peers. While Q1 unit revenue rose 6.5% Y/Y, the spread between AAL's unit revenue and unit costs (+5.2% Y/Y) is tighter than peers and could result in operating losses more quickly. This profile justifies our discounted multiple versus peers in the high-single-digit range. AAL is also leaning into summer capacity, potentially driving higher fuel consumption at elevated prices. We see limited margin for error if fuel headwinds persist. A key upside risk is oil prices easing faster than expected.