ASX 200

Market Chatter: Australian Median Home Prices Expected to Rise 1% in 2026, Reuters Poll Says

Median home prices in Australia are expected to rise 1% this year, the weakest growth since 2022, according to a poll of property analysts conducted by Reuters.The poll forecast prices ⁠to rise 2.1% in 2027. It showed median price growth projection of around 6% to 11% this year in Adelaide, Brisbane, and Perth, while prices in Sydney and Melbourne are expected to fall 2% to 3%.Urban rents are forecast to rise 4% to 6%.Median home values are at around AU$940,000, ​roughly eight times the average household income, Reuters said, adding that higher inflation and borrowing costs should continue to weigh on household ​budgets and demand.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise; Big Miners Urge Government to Back Stronger Stance Against China's Iron Ore Buying Power

Australian shares are poised to rise on Friday as oil prices retreated sharply on easing Middle East supply fears after a reported Israel-Lebanon ceasefire raised hopes of wider diplomatic progress in the region despite ongoing uncertainty over flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Overnight, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.4% and 1.7%, respectively, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 0.1%.In the macroeconomy, investors are awaiting a speech by Reserve Bank of Australia Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser.Australia's labor account report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Rio Tinto Group (ASX:RIO), BHP Group (ASX:BHP), and Fortescue (ASX:FMG) are urging the Albanese government to consider policy responses to China's increasing consolidation of iron ore purchasing power, warning that the shift is reshaping pricing dynamics in Australia's most valuable export market, the Australian Financial Review reported on Friday.Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX) continued to recommend that shareholders reject the off-market takeover bid by Diamond Infraco, an IFM Global Infrastructure Fund subsidiary, for 100% of the stapled securities that it does not already own in the company.Australia's benchmark index fell 1.1% or 99.6 points to close at 8,686.10 on Thursday.

Australian Shares Retreat; Treasury Wine Estates Projects Fiscal 2026 EBITS Outlook

Australian shares retreated on Thursday as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran began anew and peace talks showed ​little progress.The S&P/ASX 200 Index fell 1.13%, or 99.60 points, to close at 8,686.10.Brent crude oil futures fell to trade at around $96 per barrel after Lebanon and Israel agreed to a potential conditional ceasefire.Iron ore fell over 1% to $102.25 per tonne in Singapore after exports from Guinea's Simandou iron ore project rose in May.The main stock indices on Wall ​Street fell overnight, with the S&P 500 dropping 0.7% and the Nasdaq falling 0.9%, while the Dow Jones fell 1.2%.On the domestic front, Australia's goods balance recorded a seasonally adjusted surplus of AU$1.79 billion in April, up from a deficit of AU$1.02 billion in March, according to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Australia's economy faces mounting pressure from a softening labor market, stubborn inflation, and global energy uncertainty, weighing on growth and reshaping the property outlook, according to Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist, David Robertson.In company news, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million. The firm projects fiscal year 2027 performance at least in line with the year prior, citing continued progress in normalizing customer inventory levels across China and the US.IperionX (ASX:IPX) said its definitive feasibility study for its Titan critical minerals project in the US returned an after-tax net present value of $813 million at an 8% discount rate, an after-tax internal rate of return of 39%, and an after-tax payback period of 3.6 years.Tasmea (ASX:TEA) declared a fully franked special dividend of AU$0.10 per share, representing a capital return of about AU$26.2 million. The dividend is payable June 25 to shareholders on record as of June 10. It also reconfirmed its fiscal year 2026 earnings guidance. Its shares earlier hit an all-time peak.

Middle East Conflict to Weigh Modestly on Growth, Slower GDP Growth Expected, Says RBA Governor

Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michelle Bullock said on Thursday that the Middle East conflict's economic impact would vary across countries, but for Australia, she expected it to weigh modestly on growth, worsening the trade-off between inflation and economic activity.In a statement before the Senate Economics Legislation Committee, Bullock said the rate increases delivered so far in the year were necessary to tighten financial conditions and cool demand, and that early signs suggested the tightening was beginning to take effect, though the full impact would take one to two years to flow through the economy.The central bank expects gross domestic product growth to slow this year under the weight of higher interest rates and the Middle East conflict, with unemployment forecast to rise over the coming year but remain below pre-pandemic levels.Bullock noted investment had been a recent bright spot, with growth expected to continue in areas with strong structural tailwinds, such as software, data centers, and renewable energy.

Australia Walks Economic Tightrope as Rates, Inflation, Property Concerns Cloud 2026 Outlook, Says Bendigo Bank

Australia's economy faces mounting pressure from a softening labor market, stubborn inflation, and global energy uncertainty, weighing on growth and reshaping the property outlook, according to Bendigo Bank's Chief Economist, David Robertson, in a Thursday statement.Robertson said the recent award wage increase, combined with Australia's weak productivity growth, might keep pressure on the Reserve Bank to hold rates at restrictive levels."Looking ahead, economic growth is forecast to slow to 1.5%, dependent on the duration of the conflict in the Middle East and the resilience of household spending and labour markets," Robertson said.On housing, Robertson said auction clearance rates were already easing before the budget and are expected to fall further, pointing to a levelling off in capital city prices.After average gains of 9% last year, prices across much of the country could be broadly flat for the rest of the year, Robertson said, adding that Australia needs more work on supply and the bigger economic concern of productivity.Robertson believes that bold structural and tax reforms are needed to lift productivity and allow wages to rise without stoking inflation, but said it remains unclear whether that could be achieved without changes to the goods and services tax to reduce reliance on personal income tax.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Consumer Staples Stocks Advance, Materials Sector Struggles

Consumer staples stocks advanced 1% at midday Thursday.Woolworths Group (ASX:WOW) gained nearly 1% in recent trade.Meanwhile, the materials sector struggled, shedding more than 3%.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) shares fell nearly 4% following news that exports from Guinea's Simandou iron ore project rose in May.

Australia Trade Balance Swings to Surplus in April

Australia's goods balance recorded a seasonally adjusted surplus of AU$1.79 billion in April, up from a deficit of AU$1.02 billion in March, according to data published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Thursday.Goods exports rose 7.2%, or AU$3.18 billion, to AU$47.19 billion, driven by a AU$2.39 billion increase in the metal ores and minerals.Goods imports rose 0.8%, or AU$365 million, to AU$45.4 billion, driven by a AU$2.51 billion increase in fuels and lubricants.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall as Oil Surges on Middle East Escalation; Treasury Wine Estates Projects Fiscal 2026 EBITS Outlook

Australian shares are poised to fall on Thursday as oil prices surged about 2% overnight amid renewed Middle East hostilities and stalled US-Iran talks, dampening sentiment across global markets.The gains in crude were driven by regional escalation after Iran fired ballistic missiles at Kuwait and Bahrain, reinforcing supply concerns alongside tighter inventory data.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%, 0.9%, and 1.2%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the speeches by Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Michele Bullock and Assistant Governor Christopher Kent.The international trade in goods report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Treasury Wine Estates (ASX:TWE) expected fiscal year 2026 earnings before interest, tax, material items, and self-generating and regenerating assets (EBITS) to reach AU$480 million to AU$490 million.Propel Funeral Partners (ASX:PFP) agreed to acquire three funeral service providers as well as related assets, infrastructure, and real estate in New Zealand for up to AU$9.1 million.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.7% or 61.3 points to close at 8,785.70 on Wednesday.

Australia Q1 GDP Implies Slow Growth Over Rest of 2026, ANZ Says

Australia's first-quarter national accounts show that growth over the course of 2026 will be at a soft pace, according to a Wednesday report by ANZ.ANZ noted that household consumption rose 0.5%, showing a rise in essential spending. Discretionary consumer spending was weak, rising just 0.1%, while real household income growth is moderating rapidly. Also, real per capita household incomes fell 0.7% after a rise of 0.9% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and are now just 0.3% higher over the year, the bank added.The bank expects a further softening in real income growth over the year.ANZ said that much of the strength in private demand reflected the shift from public to private spending as energy subsidies came to an end, and strong growth in data-center-related investment, which is offset by higher imports.The strength in private demand does not suggest that interest rates may "need to go higher," ANZ added.

Australian Shares Climb; Ampol Secures ACCC Nod for Proposed Acquisition of Fuel, Convenience Retailer

Australian shares rose on Wednesday even as hostilities flared in the Middle East, as hopes of a peace agreement being reached between the US and Iran waned.The S&P/ASX 200 Index was up 0.7%, or 61.30 points, to close at 8,785.70.The US said Iranian missile attacks on ​Bahrain, Kuwait, and other regional targets were either thwarted or failed.Brent crude oil futures were trading above $97 per barrel.On the domestic front, Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3% in the March quarter on a seasonally adjusted, chain volume basis, after a 0.9% growth in the December 2025 quarter, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The GDP rose 2.5% compared with a year earlier.Australia's seasonally adjusted S&P Global Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) business activity index fell below the 50 no-change mark in May, posting 48.7 from 50.7 in April, according to a report by S&P Global.The Australian Industry Index remained weak in May, largely due to the energy crisis, with the index down 1 point to -26.5 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to a report released by the Australian Industry Group.In company news, Ampol's (ASX:ALD) proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience retailer EG Australia received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC). The approval is conditional on the company giving an executed court-enforceable undertaking to the ACCC to divest 41 sites to Metro Petroleum.Superloop (ASX:SLC) upgraded its fiscal year 2026 guidance for underlying earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization to AU$118 million to AU$122 million from a prior forecast of AU$112 million to AU$120 million.Lastly, Cygnus Metals (ASX:CY5) agreed to be acquired by Central Asia Metals in an all-scrip deal that values each Cygnus share at AU$0.176. Under a definitive scheme implementation deed, Cygnus shareholders will receive 0.06 new Central Asia Metals shares for each Cygnus share held.

Australia's Monthly Total Credit Rises in March, RBA Data Shows

Australia's total credit rose 0.7% month on month in April, following a 0.7% increase in March, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia showed on Wednesday.Housing credit rose by 0.6%, after rising 0.7% the previous month, while personal credit rose 0.1%, following a 0.6% increase.Business credit rose 0.7%, after a 0.9% lift recorded in the previous month.Broad money rose 0.8%, following a 0.7% increase in the previous month.Total credit jumped 8% in the year ended April, compared with the 6.7% increase in the year ended March 2025.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Materials Stocks Jump, Information Technology Sector Falls

Materials stocks advanced nearly 2% at midday Wednesday.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) gained more than 2% in recent trade as copper prices posted a new record high.On the flip side, the information technology sector struggled, shedding more than 1%.Xero (ASX:XRO) shares fell past 3% in recent trade.

Australia's Economy Grows 0.3% in March Quarter

Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) grew 0.3% in the March quarter on a seasonally adjusted, chain volume basis, after a 0.9% growth in the December 2025 quarter, according to data released on Wednesday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.The GDP rose 2.5% compared with a year earlier."Economic growth slowed in the March quarter, with modest household and public sector expenditure as well as cyclone disruptions to mining and export activities," said Grace Kim, the bureau's head of national accounts.Business investment in data center machinery and equipment was the main driver of growth, but since most of these capital goods were imported, the positive effect on GDP was partly offset by a significant drag from net trade.GDP per capita declined by 0.1% in the March quarter, following a 0.5% increase in the December 2025 quarter.Household spending rose 0.5% in the March quarter, driven by a nearly 11.7% increase in electricity, gas, and other fuel costs after government rebates ended, which increased out-of-pocket expenses."Rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs in [March] likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behavior," Kim said.Government final consumption expenditure fell 0.2%, its weakest quarterly growth since the September 2022 quarter, as Commonwealth defense spending eased and state and local spending dropped after electricity rebates ended.Exports fell 1.1%, their sharpest quarterly drop in two years, led by coal and ore declines, while imports rose 2.1% on a 6.3% jump in capital goods, subtracting 0.8 percentage points from GDP growth.Private business investment increased by 6%, largely driven by a 16.3% rise in spending on machinery and equipment (M&E)."M&E investment recorded the largest rise in 30 years with the expansion of data centers in New South Wales and Victoria during the quarter," Kim added.The household saving-to-income ratio fell to 6.2% in the March quarter from 7% in the previous quarter, as nominal household spending grew faster than the disposable income.Household disposable income increased due to a 1.2% rise in employee compensation, but gains were partly offset by higher income tax and interest payments.

Australia's GDP Up 0.3% in March Quarter Versus 0.9% Growth in December 2025 Quarter, 0.3% Rise in March 2025 Quarter

Australian Industry Index Remains Weak in May Due to Energy Crisis, Australian Industry Group Says

The Australian Industry Index remained weak in May largely due to the energy crisis, with the index down 1 point to -26.5 in seasonally adjusted terms, according to a report released by the Australian Industry Group on Wednesday.The energy crisis weighed heavily on new orders, declining 6.3 points to -34.6, with firms reporting delays in investments and looming uncertainty in the future path of energy markets.Input prices remained high at 63.1, but showed slight easing in May with a 6.4 point decline, while weaker sales price growth at 18.3 indicated limited pricing power.Additionally, wage growth increased by 6 points to 43.6, contributing to ongoing labor cost pressures.Metals manufacturing increased in response to supply disruptions, while other sectors faced weak conditions.Meanwhile, business services, which was previously less impacted by the energy crisis, experienced a downturn by 12 points in May, to be deeper in contraction at -33.3, its lowest result since February 2025.The Australian PMI was in contraction at -22.4, while the Australian PCI continued to rebound momentum in May, rising 9 points to -9.9.

Australia Services Activity Contracts in May as New Orders Fall at Fastest Rate in Almost Two and a Half Years, Says S&P

Australia's seasonally adjusted S&P Global Services purchasing managers' index (PMI) business activity index fell below the 50 no-change mark in May, posting 48.7 from 50.7 in April, according to a Wednesday report by S&P.Lower activity was seen in real estate and business services, transport and storage, and finance and insurance, while growth was maintained in consumer services and information and communication, it added.The report said that new export orders decreased for the second time in three months at a "solid" pace.Service providers signalled a solid and accelerated reduction in new business, with the latest contraction the sharpest in just under two-and-a-half years, while new business has now fallen in three successive months.The Composite Output Index posted 48.7 in May, down from 50.4 in April, signalling a renewed fall in private sector output in Australia.The report said the fall in output reflected the sharpest reduction in new orders since December 2023, while employment fell for the first time in 17 months, the report added.Input costs continued to increase rapidly, with the pace of output price inflation little-changed from the 44-month high posted in April, while business confidence dropped to a two and a half year low, the report added."Taken alongside the contraction in manufacturing output reported by the PMI earlier in the week, the latest data suggest that the Australian economy is going to struggle to generate any growth during the second quarter of the year," said Andrew Harker, Economics Director at S&P Global Market Intelligence.

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise as Oil Advances, Gold Falls on Strong US Labor Data; Northern Star Resources Increases Estimated Mineral Resources, Ore Reserves

Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday, tracking higher oil prices after crude climbed to a one-week high amid volatile trading as markets weighed uncertain Iran-US negotiations and ongoing tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.Market sentiment was also influenced by a softer gold price as stronger-than-expected US labor data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates elevated for longer.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1%, 0.03%, and 0.5%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, the Australian national accounts report is due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Northern Star Resources (ASX:NST) said its estimated mineral resources increased 26% to 88.9 million ounces as of March 31, while its estimated ore reserves jumped 27% to 28.4 million ounces.Ampol's (ASX:ALD) proposed acquisition of fuel and convenience retailer EG Australia received approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission.Australia's benchmark index edged down 5 points to close at 8,724.40 on Tuesday.