ASX 200

Australia's March Quarter GDP Expected to Book 2.6% Year-over-Year Increase, Growth to Weaken in June Quarter, BofA Securities Says

Australia's gross domestic product (GDP) for the March quarter is expected to rise by 0.5% sequentially and 2.6% on an annual basis, but growth is expected to weaken in the June quarter, BofA Securities said in a note on Monday.In comparison, the GDP increased by 0.8% quarter-over-quarter in the December 2025 quarter and by 2.6% year-over-year.The first-quarter data is too early to capture any material spillovers from the conflict in the Middle East, with negative growth effects more likely to emerge in the second quarter. The data center boom will drive a strong 3.8% quarter-over-quarter rise in private investment. However, this investment also contributed to a surge in imports, partly offsetting the growth impulse.The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to focus on the strength of private demand before the conflict, alongside inflation risks stemming from weak productivity and rising unit labor costs.While household consumption is anticipated to be resilient in the first quarter, led by non-discretionary categories, it is expected to fall in the June quarter.

Australia's Economy Expected to Grow 0.5% in Q1; Wage Hike Has No Material Impact on Inflation Outlook, ANZ Says

Australia's gross domestic product is expected to grow 0.5% in the first quarter from the previous quarter and expand 2.6% from a year earlier, but the growth should decelerate over the remainder of 2026 as momentum has cooled following the Middle East conflict, ANZ said in a Tuesday report.The bank said the Australian Fair Work Commission's (FWC) 4.75% increase to modern award wages is the largest hike since 2023, but doesn't materially change the outlook for wages, inflation, or the key cash rate."Increases in award wages do not typically flow through fully to the wage price index, but if they did, we estimate this decision would make an around 0.5 percentage point contribution to annual WPI growth," the bank said.It expects the softer economic activity outlook and a rise in the jobless rate to help offset the impact of the FWC's decision with regard to the aggregate wages bill.

Asia13d ago

Australia's Minimum Wage Hike Does Not Entail Direct Material Consequence for Inflation Outlook, Westpac Says

The Australian Fair Work Commission's (FWC) decision to increase the minimum wage will have a very minor direct impact on Westpac's wholesale price index forecast for the third quarter and will not contribute substantially to the inflationary impulse, the bank said in a Tuesday report.The FWC's annual wage review handed minimum award workers a 4.75% increase to pay starting from July, above Westpac's expectation for a 4.25% lift and larger than the 3.50% rise in 2025.The decision will directly affect over 21% of the workforce, with a larger impact on industries that are more reliant on awards, including health care, retail trade, and accommodation and food services, the bank said.The move creates some risk of inflation expectations remaining higher for longer, making the Australian central bank's job more difficult, although a gradual easing in the labor market and a deceleration of the economy will mitigate the risk somewhat, Westpac said."Today's decision for a larger increase in the minimum wage and awards will go some way against protecting more vulnerable workers' wages against the inflation shock, but the outlook is still defined by a weaker economy and labor market, which will limit the bargaining power for many workers," the bank said.

RBA's Ian Harper Expresses Concerns Over Rise in Inflation Expectations

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board Member Ian Harper said on Tuesday that any possible risk of long-term inflation expectations becoming unanchored requires "strong action," according to his speech on Tuesday.Harper said that Australia was seeing renewed inflation pressures even before the oil shock caused by the Middle East conflict.The RBA increased the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35% at its May meeting."Higher interest rates are expected to slow the economy and lower the risk that inflation becomes entrenched," said Harper.

Australia's Current Account Deficit Widens in March Quarter

Australia's seasonally adjusted current account deficit widened to AU$27.12 billion in the March quarter from AU$23.04 billion in the previous quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.The current account balance declined for the fourth consecutive quarter, with the deficit projected to reach its highest level as a percentage of nominal gross domestic product (GDP) since June 2016, said Jonathon Khoo, the Bureau's head of international statistics.The balance on trade in goods and services shifted to a deficit of AU$2.44 billion in the March quarter, from a surplus of AU$1.07 billion in the previous quarter."Trade in goods and services fell into a deficit for the first time since December quarter 2017, with exports of mining commodities falling and imports of data center equipment and fuels rising," Khoo said.Exports of goods and services fell 1.2% in the March quarter, driven by a 1.2% decline in goods exports, while imports of goods and services rose 0.8%, led by a 1.5% increase in goods imports, per the report.Services exports declined by 1.3%, mainly due to a drop in education-related travel services as fewer international students enrolled.Non-monetary gold exports and imports increased by 23.7% and 12.9%, respectively, as gold prices continued to hit record highs, marking the tenth consecutive quarterly rise in both trade flows."Foreign-owned mining companies in Australia saw higher profits this quarter due to price rises in gold and profits paid back to foreign owners and shareholders," Khoo added.The net primary income deficit widened to AU$23.66 billion in the March quarter from AU$23.27 billion in the previous quarter, the report said.The financial account recorded a surplus of AU$18.9 billion, supported by net debt and equity inflows.The balance on goods and services is expected to detract 0.8 percentage points from the March quarter GDP growth, the report added.

Asia13d ago

ASX Midday Sector Update: Information Technology Stocks Advance, Real Estate Sector Struggles

Information technology stocks advanced nearly 3% at midday Tuesday.Xero (ASX:XRO) gained more than 6% in recent trade.On the flip side, the real estate sector struggled, shedding nearly 2%.Goodman Group (ASX:GMG) shares fell nearly 1% in recent trade.

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Australian Companies' Gross Operating Profits Fall in March Quarter

Australia's seasonally adjusted company gross operating profits decreased 1.3% in the March quarter compared with the December 2025 quarter and rose 3.2% compared with the prior corresponding period, according to a Tuesday report by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Seasonally adjusted wages and salaries advanced 1.2% in the quarter and 5.5% compared with March 2025.Meanwhile, inventories inched up 0.5% over the quarter on a seasonally adjusted, chain volume basis and edged down 0.3% compared with prior corresponding period.Sales of goods and services rose in 10 industries and fell in five, with construction and professional, scientific, and technical services leading the gains, while mining recorded the largest decline.Sales of goods and services in the manufacturing sector edged 0.3% higher over the quarter and grew 3.1% compared with 2025, while wholesale trade sales rose 0.5% for the quarter and 3% year on year.

Total Number of Dwelling Approvals in Australia Falls in April

Seasonally adjusted data revealed that the total number of dwellings approved in Australia fell 3.4% to 16,710 in April from 17,307 in the previous month, figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed on Tuesday.Private sector housing approvals edged down 1% to 10,088 in April, while approvals for private sector dwellings excluding houses fell 3.6% to 6,403, according to the ABS data.Meanwhile, the value of total non-residential building approvals rose over 29.4% to AU$7.75 billion, and the value of total residential building approvals fell 0.3% to AU$10.89 billion.

Petroleum Exploration Expenditure in Australia Jumps 46% in March Quarter

The petroleum exploration expenditure by private organizations in Australia in the March quarter jumped 46.2% year-over-year to AU$467 million on a seasonally adjusted basis, while the mineral exploration expenditure grew 16.1% year-over-year to AU$1.09 billion, according to data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Tuesday.Mineral exploration expenditure saw a trend rise of 13.4% year over year to AU$1.08 billion, while petroleum exploration expenditure rose 36.3% to AU$471 million.Total onshore petroleum exploration expenditure climbed 14.8% quarter-over-quarter to AU$273.7 million, while offshore petroleum exploration expenditure fell 23.3% to AU$192.9 million on a seasonally adjusted basis.Gold saw the largest fall in expenditure quarter-over-quarter, down 5.8% to AU$450.9 million, while iron ore rose 5% to AU$186 million.

Australian Consumer Confidence Rises to Highest Level Since Early March

Australian consumer confidence rose 2.7 points in the week of May 25 to 31 to 68.8 points, its highest level since early March, according to a Tuesday note from ANZ Research.Despite the rise, confidence remains 17.5 points below the 2025 average, ANZ economist Sophia Angala said.The four-week moving average lifted 0.4 points to 66.4 points.Weekly inflation expectations were down 0.2 percentage points to 5.9%, while the four-week moving average fell to 6.1%.Current financial conditions over the last year rose 3.2 points to 61.9, while financial conditions over the next 12 months increased 2.2 points to 75.1.Short-term economic confidence over the next 12 months was up 4.6 points to 60.1, while medium-term economic confidence over the next five years rose 0.4 points to 75.8.The "time to buy a major household item" sub-index increased 3.1 points to 71.2, per the report.The weak level of consumer confidence supports expectations that the Reserve Bank cash rate will likely stay at 4.35% in the near term, according to Angala.

Asia13d ago

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Fall After Oil Jumps on Iran-US Tensions; Atlas Arteria Continues to Reject IFM Global's Takeover Proposal

Australian shares are poised to fall on Tuesday after oil prices jumped more than 4% on escalating Middle East tensions, including reports that Iran has halted indirect talks with the US and threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Sentiment was also dented by the escalating Israel-Lebanon conflict, as Israeli forces advanced deeper into Lebanon in their ongoing operations against Hezbollah.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.3%, 0.4%, and 0.1%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, the ANZ-Roy Morgan Australian consumer confidence rose 2.7 points to 68.8 in the week of May 25 to May 31, ANZ reported Tuesday.Australia's balance of payments and international investment position, building approvals, business indicators, and mineral and petroleum exploration reports are due at 11:30 am Sydney time.In corporate news, Atlas Arteria (ASX:ALX) issued a supplementary target statement that continues to recommend the rejection of a takeover bid by IFM Global Infrastructure Fund.Star Entertainment Group (ASX:SGR) secured a $390 million senior secured financing facility from WhiteHawk Capital Partners, strengthening liquidity and refinancing existing debt amid ongoing operational and financial pressures.Australia's benchmark index edged down 0.03% or 2.3 points to close at 8,729.40 on Monday.

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ASX 200^BSE^HNX^HOSEHang Seng^JKSEFTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIKOSPINikkei 225^NSE^NZ50^PSEI^SETShanghai Composite^STI^SZSETaiwan Weighted

Asia Week Ahead: Manufacturing Activity; Policy Rate Decision; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, manufacturing activity will be in focus as S&P Global releases a broad mix of purchasing managers' index reports covering multiple economies.The week opens with a flurry of manufacturing PMI readings for May, followed by inflation data from South Korea and Indonesia on Tuesday.Mid-week, Australia's first-quarter GDP report will take center stage, while markets will also watch a heavy batch of readouts from Vietnam.Thursday will be lighter, led by Australia's April trade report, before Friday brings India's policy rate decision and GDP figures and inflation readouts from multiple regions.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 1The week kicked off with a flurry of S&P Global's purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports covering May manufacturing activity across the region.China's manufacturing activity eased after the seasonally adjusted RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8, compared with 52.2 in the previous month and the consensus estimate of 51.4 from Investing.com.Data from the National Bureau of Statistic similarly showed factory activity easing, with the official purchasing managers' index falling to a neutral 50 from 50.3 in April.A reading above 50 means growth, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.Manufacturing activity similarly slowed in Australia as new orders fell sharply for a third consecutive month amid rising costs and ongoing supply-chain disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East.In contrast, Japan's manufacturing production expanded, with the latest S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI coming in at 54.5, compared with 55.1 in April, matching the flash data.South Korean manufacturing output also expanded during the month, hitting its highest in five years due to a rise in production and new order volumes, S&P Global said.India, Taiwan and Vietnam were also among the regions that experienced improved output during May.Meanwhile, The Philippines' manufacturing activity returned to growth in May as stronger output and a recovery in new orders offset continued weakness in exports.Moving ahead, the Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge fell in May after two consecutive monthly increases, driven largely by a decline in transport costs. The monthly cost of living also declined in May, particularly for self-funded retirees.Elsewhere, South Korea recorded a trade surplus of $26.9 billion in May, a new all-time high, and marking the third straight month of more than $20 billion in trade surplus.TUESDAY, June 2Focus shifts Tuesday to inflation data coming in from South Korea.Economists at ING said consumer prices could reach 3% year on year in May, reflecting higher input costs that are likely to be passed on to consumers.Pipeline cost pressures are also likely to reflect in Indonesia's inflation print due Tuesday, with ANZ expecting prices to tick up to 3% from 2.42% in the prior month, the Wall Street Journal reported.Trade figures due in Indonesia the same day could also show moderating exports as the effects of front-loaded demand fade and commodity prices soften, the WSJ said, citing an RHB economist.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its monthly manufacturing PMIs for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management's PMI report is also expected.Lastly, Hong Kong will release its retail sales stats for April.WEDNESDAY, June 3Australia's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will dominate headlines Wednesday.Both Westpac and CommBank said they expect growth to have moderated during the first three months of the year, though their estimates differed.CommBank forecast a 0.2% quarterly rise in GDP, while Westpac projected 0.5%; both would be slower than the 0.8% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025.Neighboring New Zealand will disclose first-quarter export and import price stats.Markets will also be following a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues on the central bank's next interest-rate hike.Wednesday also features a heavy slate of macro data from Vietnam, including inflation, balance of trade, industrial production, and retail sales.Trading Economics expects Vietnam's May inflation to accelerate to 6% from 5.46% in April. Meanwhile, the data platform estimated the country's trade deficit could widen to $3.4 billion from $3.28 billion a month prior.Meanwhile, S&P Global will release the next batch of its PMI reports covering composite and services activity in China, India, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong.THURSDAY, June 4Thursday will be relatively light on readouts, with Australia's April trade figures among the handful of releases of note.Australia is expected to post a trade surplus of A$2.6 billion in April, rebounding from a A$1.8 billion deficit in March - its first shortfall since late 2017, Westpac said in a preview.According to the bank, major commodity exports appeared to have increased notably during the period after recording three consecutive monthly declines.In Singapore, S&P Global's monthly PMI will be due, while Thailand will release a business confidence report.FRIDAY, June 5The tail end of the week brings a policy rate decision in India, which will also release its quarterly GDP growth figures.The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold rates at 5.25% but could signal hawkish sentiment during its vote, the WSJ reported, citing a UOB economist.Meanwhile, a Trading Economics consensus placed the country's GDP growth rate at 7.3%, down marginally from the 7.8% recorded in the final quarter of 2025.ANZ Research said the economy stayed broadly healthy in the fiscal fourth quarter, although growth eased slightly in March as manufacturing, exports and profit margins came under pressure due to global disruptions, the WSJ reported.Taiwan is set to report monthly inflation data, with ING expecting consumer prices to rise above the 2% target for the first time since April 2025. The bank expects inflation to accelerate to 2.2% year on year in May from 1.7% in April, reflecting Taiwan's reliance on imported energy, which leaves the economy vulnerable to higher global prices."We expect inflation to peak toward the middle of this year, raising the risks for a potential central bank rate hike at the coming meetings," ING said in a preview.Thailand and the Philippines will similarly report their respective inflation rates for May, with the latter also releasing industrial production stats.Lastly, Singapore will report its retail sales figures for April.

Australia's Index of Commodity Prices Rises 1.3% in May

Australia's Index of Commodity Prices rose 1.3% in May when measured in special drawing rights terms on a monthly average basis, after a 0.3% decrease in April, the Reserve Bank of Australia reported Monday.The rural, non-rural, and base metal sub-indices all increased in the month.In Australian dollar terms, the index inched down 0.1% in the month and rose by 6.1% over the past year, per the report.The index climbed by 16.8% in special drawing rights terms when compared with the past year, per the report. Higher lithium, coking coal, and rural commodity prices offset falls in iron ore and gold.Using spot prices for the bulk commodities index, the index was up 1% in special drawing rights terms in May, to be 18.1% higher over the past year.

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Asia14d ago

Australian Shares Flat; Syrah Resources Resolves Offtake Agreement Issues With Tesla

Australian shares were flat with a negative bias on Monday as investors awaited fresh developments on an awaited peace agreement in the Middle East.The S&P/ASX 200 Index was little changed at 8,729.40.Negotiators from the US and Iran are still trying to work out a deal to end the conflict in the Middle East, Reuters reported.Brent crude oil futures rose over 2% to trade around $93 per barrel.On the domestic front, the Westpac-DataX Card Tracker Index continued its gradual decline, falling 1.6 points over four weeks to 153.2 in the week that ended May 23, slightly below the year-to-date average of 154.The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) fell to 50.7 in May from 51.3 in April, remaining above the 50-point mark separating contraction and expansion.The Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge fell in May after two consecutive monthly increases, driven largely by a decline in transport costs, particularly fuel prices.The ANZ-Indeed Australian job ads rose 1.8% month on month in May to a seasonally adjusted 116, following a 3.7% decline over the prior two months.In company news, Syrah Resources (ASX:SYR) said Tesla no longer plans to terminate an offtake agreement with the company after Syrah showed that it is producing conforming active anode material samples. Syrah said it has now "made sufficient progress to cure the alleged default" and is progressing through the later stages of qualification testing approvals with Tesla.DroneShield (ASX:DRO) said shareholders delivered a first strike against the company's remuneration report at its annual general meeting. Around half of shareholders voted against a resolution to adopt the remuneration report at the May 29 meeting.Ventia Services Group (ASX:VNT, NZE:VNT) secured a five-year, AU$133 million contract extension to continue operating and managing the Australian marine complex-common user facility in Western Australia, with the new term commencing in July 2027.

Australia's Housing Auction Market Cooled at the End of May Amid Shifting Demand-Supply Balance, Cotality Says

Australia's housing auction market cooled in the week ended May 31 as the overall preliminary clearance rate for capital cities hit a new cyclical low, Cotality said in a Monday report.The combined capitals preliminary clearance rate for the week eased to 54.5% from 58.2% in the prior week, marking the lowest reading recorded since April 2020, the data and analytics firm said.Sydney's preliminary clearance rate fell to 51.8% from nearly 57% in the prior week, while Melbourne's declined to just above 58% from 60.2%. Melbourne had the largest share of activity, accounting for 1,264 of the total 2,681 homes taken to auction in the week through May 31.The figure for Sydney represents the city's second-weakest preliminary result so far in 2026, behind only the 49.2% recorded during the week of the federal budget release. Excluding that result, Sydney's clearance rate has not been this low since April 2020."The combination of rising volumes and falling preliminary clearance rates points to a sizeable shift in the demand-supply balance across the country since last spring, with demand facing the headwinds of affordability constraints, three interest rate rises and the deterioration in consumer sentiment, not to mention the policy changes in the federal budget that will discourage investor purchases of existing properties," Cotality said.

Australia Home Values Flat in May as Market Headwinds Intensify, Cotality Says

National home values in Australia flatlined in May as the housing cycle continued to soften in most markets, with Sydney and Melbourne leading the downturn, Cotality said in a Monday report.Cotality's national home value index was unchanged in May, with headwinds including higher interest rates and a shifting tax policy tilting toward weaker demand.Dwelling values in Sydney and Melbourne declined 0.9% and 0.8%, respectively, in May to land roughly 2% and 3% below cyclical highs seen in November 2025. Values also fell across the the Australian Capital Territory but at a comparatively slower pace, according to the report.While values continued to increase in other state capitals, including by 1.5% in Perth and Darwin, the growth is clearly losing steam, Cotality said."While the speed of value change remains very different from city to city, the direction is becoming more consistent, with most markets losing momentum as demand-side headwinds intensify," Cotality research director Tim Lawless said.The report noted that the slowdown in housing demand also shows up in home sales data. The estimated volume of national home sales during the past three months was tracking over 2% lower than a year earlier and about 4% below the five-year average.

Asia14d ago

ASX Midday Sector Update: Information Technology Stocks Jump, Healthcare Sector Falls

Information technology stocks advanced more than 5% at midday Monday.Xero (ASX:XRO) gained 8% in recent trade.On the flip side, the healthcare sector struggled, shedding nearly 2%.CSL (ASX:CSL) shares fell almost 2% in recent trade.

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ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads Rise in May

The ANZ-Indeed Australian job ads rose 1.8% month on month in May to a seasonally adjusted 116, following a 3.7% decline over the prior two months, ANZ reported Monday.ANZ economist Madeline Dunk noted that Australian job ads rose in May but remain 2% below their February peak, with tighter policy expected to weigh on activity, driving job ads lower and the unemployment rate gradually higher.The April labor market data was soft, with unemployment rising to 4.5%, employment falling 18,600, and participation slipping to nearly 67%, although Easter-related volatility likely played a role, Dunk added.Indeed senior economist Callam Pickering said that job ads rose in May across most states and territories, led by Victoria and New South Wales, while Queensland and Western Australia remained the strongest performers over the past year despite challenging economic conditions.Job ads growth in May was led by food preparation, education and training, and nursing, with construction also performing strongly, while transport and driving vacancies fell sharply and information technology sector job ads eased slightly but remained above year-ago levels, Pickering added.Compared with the year-earlier period, job ads rose 2% in May, per the report.

Melbourne Institute's Monthly Inflation Gauge Falls in May

The Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge fell in May after two consecutive monthly increases, driven largely by a decline in transport costs, particularly fuel prices, the institute said in a Monday report.The monthly cost of living also declined in May, particularly for self-funded retirees, the report said.Annual headline inflation, as measured by the inflation gauge, stood at 4.4%.The gauge estimates month-to-month price movements for a wide-ranging basket of goods and services across the main capital cities of Australia.