S&amp;P/ASX 200

Australian Manufacturing Activity Rises in June Despite Output Weakness

Australian manufacturing activity improved modestly in June, with employment and inventories rising even as output and new orders continued to contract amid elevated costs, supply-chain delays, and uncertainty driven by Middle East tensions, according to a survey by S&P Global published Wednesday.The headline seasonally adjusted S&P Global Australia Manufacturing Purchasing Manager's Index (PMI) rose to 51.5 in June from 50.7 in May, signaling a third consecutive month of expansion in the sector.The headline PMI showed a modest monthly improvement, driven by higher employment and inventories and a further lengthening of suppliers' delivery times.New orders and output continued to decline in June, though the pace of contraction eased as export demand returned to growth despite ongoing client uncertainty and price pressures, per the report.Manufacturing output fell for the fifth straight month in June, as weaker new orders, a broader economic slowdown, and rising prices weighed on output, though the rate of decline eased to a marginal pace.Prices continued to climb amid the ongoing fallout from the Middle East conflict, though the pace of inflation eased compared with May as input cost pressures began to moderate.Supply-chain pressures intensified again in June as the ongoing Middle East conflict extended lead times, prompting manufacturers to stockpile inputs even as purchasing activity edged lower.Manufacturers added staff for a second consecutive month in June as firms replaced departing workers and prepared for new projects, even as new orders fell and backlogs were reduced further.Manufacturing confidence climbed in June to a four-month peak, supported by hopes of improved geopolitical conditions and increased new orders, though it stayed below levels seen before the Middle East conflict began.

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ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise with US-Iran Talks in Focus; South32 Strikes $6 Billion Deal to Sell Aluminum Assets to Alcoa

Australian shares are poised to rise on Wednesday, tracking steady oil prices that were little changed but set for their steepest monthly and quarterly losses since early 2020, as investors weighed US-Iran talks in Doha and fragile ceasefire dynamics.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8%, 1.5%, and 0.3%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, Australian manufacturing activity improved modestly in June, with employment and inventories rising even as output and new orders continued to contract amid elevated costs, supply-chain delays, and uncertainty driven by Middle East tensions, according to a survey by S&P Global published Wednesday.Australian housing market worsened in June, recording the largest month-on-month decline in home values since Dec. 2022, as pessimistic sentiment grew amid rising cost-of-living pressures, Cotality said Wednesday.In corporate news, South32 (ASX:S32) struck a deal to sell its aluminum assets to Alcoa (ASX:AAI) for an implied enterprise value of as much as $5.6 billion.Coles Group's (ASX:COL) proposed acquisition of a leasehold for a new supermarket and liquor site in the Kalgoorlie-Boulder area of Western Australia would materially harm competition in the retail groceries space, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission said Wednesday following a phase two review.Australia's benchmark index fell 0.5% or 44.7 points to close at 8,778.70 on Tuesday.

Australian Housing Market Downturn Deepens in June, Says Cotality

Australian housing market worsened in June, recording the largest month-on-month decline in home values since Dec. 2022, as pessimistic sentiment grew amid rising cost-of-living pressures, Cotality said Wednesday.Cotality's national Home Value Index fell 0.4% in June, dragged by a 3.2% fall in Sydney and a 2.6% slide in Melbourne, while mid-sized capitals also witnessed a sharp slowdown in growth.Market conditions were already challenging, with affordability hurdles emerging even before interest rates rose by 75 basis points. Property tax changes announced in the federal budget are also deepening the downturn, the firm added.The weaker housing market was also reflected in other indicators, including auction clearance rates, home sales estimates, and the number of properties listed for sale.Auction clearance rates fell below 50%, and capital city sales for the three months ended June dropped 16.2% year-on-year, it added.

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Australian Shares Down; Euroz Hartleys Group Agrees to Sell Capital Markets Business to BMO Australia

Australian shares closed lower on Tuesday as gold prices fell on prospects of cessation of the conflict in the Middle East, as well as a strengthening US dollar.The S&P/ASX 200 Index declined 0.51%, or by 44.70 points, to close at 8,778.70.Brent crude oil futures were trading around pre-conflict prices of $72 per barrel after the US and Iran had agreed to halt renewed hostilities. Gold fell to around $4,000 per ounce.On the domestic front, Australia's total credit rose 0.7% month over month in May, following a 0.7% increase in April, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed. Housing credit rose 0.5% after edging 0.6% higher the previous month, while personal credit inched up 0.6%, following a 0.2% increase.Australian consumer confidence rose 3.1 points in the week of June 22 to 28 to 75.9 points, its highest level since early March, ANZ said. The four-week moving average rose 1.8 points to 72.6 points.Almost half, or 46%, of businesses in Australia reported operating expenses had increased over the past four weeks, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed. Fuel prices, which jumped 71%, and business overheads, which rose 65%, were reported as the main reasons for increased operating expenses.In company news, Euroz Hartleys Group's (ASX:EZL) Euroz Hartleys unit agreed to sell its Capital Markets business to BMO Australia, a subsidiary of the Bank of Montreal, for AU$145 million. Euroz Hartleys and BMO will also enter into an alliance agreement to maintain the relationship between the Capital Markets and Private Wealth businesses.Capricorn Metals' (ASX:CMM) Crimson Metals subsidiary received approval from the Commonwealth Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment, and Water for the expansion and operation of the Mount Gibson project in Western Australia.Collins Foods (ASX:CKF) reported fiscal 2026 underlying earnings of AU$0.52 per basic share from continuing operations, up from AU$0.461 a year earlier. Revenue for the 12 months ended May 3 was AU$1.59 billion, compared with AU$1.47 billion a year earlier.

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Asia-Pacific Banks Stable Amid Negative Market Events, S&P Says

Asia-Pacific banks continue to be stable despite lingering adverse market events such as the Middle East conflict and inflationary pressures, S&P Global Ratings said on Tuesday.The region's banks have limited direct Middle East exposure, S&P financial institution ratings sector lead Gavin Gunning said.Spillover effects from the conflict pose the greatest risk for the banks, with the indirect impact being manageable but increasing for certain economies, Gunning said.S&P holds a stable outlook on 92% of rated Asia-Pacific banks, indicating stable trends over the next one to two years.Financial institutions have ample buffers for war-linked constraints, although credit losses could increase by $180 billion under S&P's downside scenario.Banks also face medium risk from the negative hit of technological advancements such as AI-linked cyber risks, S&P said.

RBA's June Meeting Note Highlights Monetary Policy Board's Hawkishness, ANZ Says

The minutes for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) monetary policy board's June meeting highlighted the board's hawkishness and the risk of a further rate hike, but the cash rate is forecast to remain at 4.35% for the next year or so, ANZ said in a note on Tuesday.The board members had noted that information received since the previous meeting supported the view that the economy was operating "with excess demand and widespread inflationary pressures." The slowing in economic activity is described as being "as expected" and "broadly in line with earlier expectations."The minutes added that the labor market was maybe a little weaker than the board expected, although it "cautioned against reading too much into monthly data outcomes." The housing market was also easing "by more than expected," due to recent increases in the cash rate, tax changes, and the wider economic environment.Given the inflation outlook, there is likely to be some form of tolerance on the RBA's part for weak activity data, the lender said.

Australia's Monthly Increase in Total Credit Flat in May, RBA Says

Australia's total credit rose 0.7% month over month in May, following a 0.7% increase in April, data from the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) showed on Tuesday.Housing credit rose 0.5% after edging 0.6% higher the previous month, while personal credit inched up 0.6%, following a 0.2% increase.Business credit advanced 1% after a 0.7% increase recorded in the previous month.Broad money climbed 0.3%, following a 0.8% growth in the previous month.Total credit jumped 8.2% in the year ended May, compared with the 6.9% increase in the year ended May 2025.

Nearly Half of Australian Businesses Report Higher Operating Expenses Over Past Four Weeks, ABS Says

Almost half, or 46%, of businesses in Australia reported operating expenses had increased over the past four weeks, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics showed Tuesday.The survey of business conditions and sentiments was conducted between June 4 and June 15 in order to ascertain changing business behavior and sentiments in response to fuel prices or availability impacted by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz.Fuel prices, which jumped 71%, and business overheads, which rose 65%, were reported as the main reasons for increased operating expenses. The report showed that 33% of businesses expected operating expenses to increase over the next four weeks, down 3 percentage points from May.Meanwhile, 24% of businesses reported they expected revenue to fall over the next four weeks, down 4 percentage points month-over-month, and 31% of businesses reported revenue had decreased over the previous four weeks in June.In June, 16% of businesses experienced supply chain disruptions, unchanged from May, with the agriculture, forestry, and fishing sector experiencing the most disruptions at 35%. This was followed by manufacturing at 28%, wholesale trade at 27%, and retail trade at 22%.ABS said 33% of these businesses were affected to a great extent by the disruptions, down 5 percentage points from May.Moreover, 73% of businesses reported fuel prices or availability had a negative impact on the business, up a single percentage point from May, while 58% of responding businesses made changes to business operations in June due to fuel prices or availability, down 2 percentage points month-over-month.Finally, 58% of businesses made changes to business operations, with 15% of these firms increasing prices in response to fuel prices or availability, data showed.

US Markets79d ago

Australia's Central Bank Ready to Raise Rates if Needed After June's Hold Decision

Australia's central bank said it is willing to take necessary steps to achieve price stability and full employment, including increasing the cash rate target.The Reserve Bank of Australia decided to leave interest rates unchanged at its June meeting, given the ongoing uncertainty related to developments in the Middle East.Minutes released from the June monetary policy showed that board members believed a durable US-Iran resolution could limit costs passed on to consumers by firms, but noted that underlying inflation would still show lingering effects of the recent fuel shock.The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board members decided to hold rates at 4.35% to balance its inflation and employment targets.Members agreed policy needed to stay restrictive to unwind excess demand through below-trend growth, with inflation remaining well above target and staff's May forecasts pointing to a further two years before it returns to target on a sustainable basis.The board members believe it would take considerable time to restore oil supply to pre-conflict levels even if the current resolution proves enduring, and noted demand could be buoyed for a time as countries look to rebuild inventories.The minutes were described as "hawkish" by ANZ, which continues to expect the interest rate to remain at 4.35% for the next year.Amid a developing Middle East peace resolution, reduced fuel costs, and a decreased May unemployment rate, Australian consumers are showing optimism as ANZ's consumer confidence survey showed a second consecutive weekly rise in June.The RBA is scheduled to meet again in August, while the ASX Rate Indicator showed 81% market expectations of another hold decision.

ASX Midday Sector Update: Utilities Stocks Rise, Materials Sector Falls

Utilities stocks advanced 1.2% at midday Monday.Origin Energy (ASX:ORG) gained more than 1% in recent trade.Meanwhile, the materials sector struggled, shedding nearly 2%.BHP Group (ASX:BHP) shares fell almost 1% in recent trade.

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RBA Holds Rates as Inflation Risks Remain, Minutes Show

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) kept the cash rate unchanged at 4.35% in June, judging monetary policy to be somewhat restrictive while warning that inflation remains above target, and further rate increases could be needed if price pressures persist, according to the minutes of the monetary policy committee's June meeting released on Tuesday.The members noted that global financial conditions had eased since the previous meeting, as progress toward resolving the Middle East conflict lowered oil prices and reduced expectations of further monetary tightening, although uncertainty over inflation and energy markets persisted.They observed that inflation continues to remain well above the target, with underlying inflation projected to increase in the June quarter even as headline inflation eases because of lower fuel and travel costs.Members indicated that cost pressures remain widespread, weak productivity continues to drive elevated unit labor costs, and inflation is expected to take about two more years to return sustainably to the target range.RBA stated that although oil prices have fallen from recent highs, they remain above pre-conflict levels, while ongoing energy supply disruptions continue to pose upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth, prompting several advanced economy central banks to maintain tighter monetary policy.The minutes revealed that domestic economic activity eased broadly as expected, with annual gross domestic product growth of 2.5% in the March quarter supported by strong business investment, while household consumption and housing conditions weakened and the labor market remained broadly resilient despite mixed signals.The board said the outlook is mainly threatened by persistent inflation, driven by global energy markets and weak domestic productivity, and reaffirmed that it will remain data dependent and is prepared to raise the cash rate further if needed to meet its inflation and employment goals.

Australian Consumer Confidence Records Second Consecutive Weekly Rise

Australian consumer confidence rose 3.1 points in the week of June 22 to 28 to 75.9 points, its highest level since early March, according to a Tuesday note from ANZ.The pick-up may be related to the decline in the unemployment rate seen in the May Labour Force Survey released last week, ANZ said, adding that it is also possible that the decrease in petrol prices is supporting confidence and adding to the decline in inflation expectations.The four-week moving average rose 1.8 points to 72.6 points.Weekly inflation expectations were down 0.2 percentage points to 5.6%, while the four-week moving average fell to 5.9%.Current financial conditions over the last year rose 2.1 points to 64.5, while financial conditions over the next 12 months rose 5.9 points to 84.8, the highest level since February.Short-term economic confidence over the next 12 months was up 6.6 points to 71.1, while medium-term economic confidence over the next five years rose 4.5 points to 83.1.The "time to buy a major household item" sub-index fell 3.5 points to 76.1, per the report.

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Asia80d ago

ASX Preview: Australian Shares Set to Rise as Oil Surges on US-Iran Tensions; Collins Foods Posts Higher Fiscal 2026 Underlying Earnings, Revenue

Australian shares are poised to rise on Tuesday, tracking gains in oil prices as renewed US-Iran tensions heightened concerns over shipping risks in the Strait of Hormuz.Gold fell as investors weighed the inflationary impact of rising energy costs, reinforcing expectations that interest rates will stay elevated for longer.Overnight, the S&P 500, the Nasdaq Composite, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.2%, 2.1%, and 0.6%, respectively.In the macroeconomy, investors are eyeing the Reserve Bank of Australia's June monetary policy board meeting minutes.In corporate news, Collins Foods (ASX:CKF) reported Tuesday fiscal year 2026 underlying earnings of AU$0.52 per basic share from continuing operations on revenue of AU$1.59 billion, compared with underlying earnings of AU$0.461 on revenue of AU$1.47 billion a year earlier.Boom Logistics (ASX:BOL) secured an extension of its lifting and project logistics services agreement with BHP Group (ASX:BHP) at the Olympic Dam operation in South Australia.Australia's benchmark index rose 0.7% or 59.2 points to close at 8,823.40 on Monday.

Asia80d ago

Financial Profile, Qualitative Factors Define Asia-Pacific Renewable Power Issuers' Ratings, Fitch Says

Asia-Pacific renewable power issuers' ratings are dependent on their financial profile and qualitative factors such as off-taker mix, issuance structure, and refinancing risk, Fitch Ratings said Monday.Fitch's credit assessment of this group, composed of 13 issuers, ranges from B+ to BBB-.The difference between performance and expectations as well as the spread in energy yield estimates factor into Fitch's assessment of volume risk and the estimate threshold for a wind or solar portfolio.The rating agency considers waste-to-energy projects within the portfolio to contain higher load factors than solar and wind projects, although volatile fuel availability could impact volume.Issuers narrow supply risk through fuel supply contracts with local suppliers and availability of fuel in regions near the projects, Fitch said.

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Asia Week Ahead: Inflation; Manufacturing Activity; and Trade

Asia's macro calendar will be busy in the week ahead, with investors set to track a broad mix of PMI readings, inflation prints, trade data and industrial activity across the region.The week starts with retail sales figures from Japan, alongside producer inflation figures from Singapore and Malaysia.Attention turns Tuesday to China's official PMI data and the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes.Activity indicators will remain in focus Wednesday as S&P Global releases manufacturing PMI reports for major Asian economies, while Thursday will bring inflation data from South Korea and trade balance from Australia.Friday rounds out the week with a heavy Vietnam data slate, alongside services and composite PMI reports from several major economies.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 29The week kicked off with the release of Japan's retail sales data for May, as well as producer inflation data from Malaysia and Singapore.Japan's retail sales expanded 5.3% year over year to 13.45 trillion yen during May, beating the consensus forecast of 3.1% growth tracked by Investing.com, and compared with a 2.8% increase recorded in the previous month.Meanwhile, Singapore's Manufactured Products Price Index jumped 30.8% year on year in May 2026, accelerating from the 27.5% annual growth recorded in April.The Domestic Supply Price Index climbed 34.2% from a year earlier, quickening from the 32.1% year-over-year expansion seen the previous month.Singapore also reported import and export prices for the month.Export prices increased 14.7% year over year in May, accelerating from a 13.3% growth in April, while import prices jumped 19.1% year over year, quickening from the 18.9% increase in the previous month.The Producer Price Index for local production in Malaysia rose 7.8% year over year in May, driven by a rise in all sectors, particularly by the mining industry.Elsewhere, consumer confidence in Taiwan rose to 65.05 in June from 62.08 in May, beating the 62.5 consensus forecast tracked by Trading Economics and marking the highest level since February.In contrast, consumer sentiment in the Philippines deteriorated sharply to -42 during the second quarter from -15.8 in the first three months of the year.Later Monday, India reports its monthly industrial and manufacturing production stats.TUESDAY, June 30Tuesday will be among the busiest days of macro releases with China's official manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general purchasing managers' index (PMI) data taking the lead.Economists at ING expect China's manufacturing activity to edge up 0.1 point to 50.1, while non-manufacturing PMI is expected to slide back into contraction territory at 49.9. Importantly, the data readout will give economists the first look at whether a June rebound could be in the cards, ING said in a preview.In Japan, monthly industrial production and unemployment data would capture headlines. ING expects May's industrial output to slow to 1.4% year on year from the 2% growth recorded in the prior month, with unemployment to remain steady at 2.5%.Macao will also report unemployment data the same day, with Trading Economics expecting a slight tick upwards to 1.9% from 1.8% in April.Industrial production data from Thailand and South Korea will also feature Tuesday, alongside their retail sales stats.Markets will also follow the release of the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes for clues on whether the central bank will raise interest rates. In its most recent meeting, the RBA unanimously decided to leave the cash rate steady at 4.35% but opened the possibility of a rate hike to balance the risk between high inflation and slowing growth.Neighboring New Zealand will see the release of a report capturing business confidence for June.Elsewhere, the Philippines will release monthly trade and producer inflation figures.WEDNESDAY, July 1S&P Global's monthly PMI reports on manufacturing activity will be closely watched Wednesday.The reports will cover activity across India, Vietnam, Thailand, Taiwan, South Korea, Malaysia, Japan, Indonesia, China, Australia, and the Philippines.Markets will also await the Bank of Japan's sentiment index for the second quarter, with ING expecting the Tankan survey to show an increase amid strong chip demand and an improved situation in the Middle East.A monthly report covering consumer confidence in Japan will also be due.Indonesia's monthly inflation print will also be among the highlights Wednesday. Economists at ING expect June's consumer price index to edge up to 3.2% year on year from 3.1% in the month prior, reflecting the knock-on effect of elevated oil prices and depreciation of the local currency.Still, inflation is likely to remain within Bank Indonesia's target range, ING said.Indonesia will also report its trade balance the same day, with Trading Economists expecting a trade surplus of $4 billion, up from $90 million in April.South Korea will similarly report trade figures for June. ING said it expects strong chip demand to support exports, resulting in a trade surplus of $33 billion, up from $27 billion in May.THURSDAY, July 2South Korea's monthly inflation print will lead headlines Thursday.As with Indonesia, ING said it expects the knock-on effect of elevated oil prices to reflect more visibly in the June printout which could show inflation accelerating to 3.3% year on year from 3.1% in the prior month."The recent decline of global oil prices won't be reflected in domestic gasoline prices for another couple of months, while petrochemicals and related product prices are likely to remain sticky," ING said.Markets will be on the lookout for Australia's trade balance for May. Canberra is expected to report a trade surplus of A$2.2 billion for the month, up from A$1.79 billion in April, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Thailand will release a business confidence report for June, while Hong Kong will release its monthly retail sales stats.The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management's manufacturing PMI report is also expected Thursday.FRIDAY, July 3Vietnam will feature prominently on Friday with a slew of macro data readouts, including inflation and GDP growth rate.The country's June consumer price index is expected to clock in at 6.5% year on year, accelerating from 5.6% in May, Trading Economics forecasted.Meanwhile, the economy is forecasted to have grown by 7.6% year on year during the second quarter, slowing from the 7.8% increase witnessed during the first three months of the year, according to Trading Economics.Other Vietnamese release include monthly retail sales, industrial production, and balance of trade figures.Singapore will similarly report its retail sales data on Friday, while New Zealand will see the release of a consumer confidence report.On the activity front, S&P Global will release composite and services PMI reports for India, China, Singapore, Japan, and Australia.

Asia80d ago

Australian Shares Up; Ramelius Resources to Sell Western Australia Gold Hub to Forrestania for AU$300 Million

Australian shares closed higher on Monday after the US and Iran agreed to halt hostilities that had flared up over the weekend.The S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.68%, or 59.20 points, to close at 8,823.40.Brent crude oil futures climbed to trade around $72 per barrel amid concerns over the future of peace negotiations between the US and Iran, as well as the opening of the Strait of Hormuz.On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of Australia said its monetary policy board disclosed a framework outlining how it would approach the design and use of additional monetary policy tools in a low-interest rate environment.The bank said the toolkit features six tools, including term lending facilities, government bond purchase programs, forward guidance with commitment, negative interest rate policy, term rate targets, and foreign exchange asset purchasesIn company news, Ramelius Resources (ASX:RMS) agreed to sell its Edna May Gold Hub, including processing infrastructure and surrounding satellite tenements, to Forrestania Resources (ASX:FRS) for AU$300 million under a binding share and asset purchase agreement. Completion is targeted for the September quarter, after which the company is expected to become a substantial shareholder in Forrestania.Karoon Energy (ASX:KAR) said production has been restored from the SPS-92 well at Baúna in Brazil following the replacement of the electrical submersible pump (ESP). SPS-92 is currently producing at a rate of 8,600 barrels of oil per day (bopd), taking total Baúna Project production to around 20,500 bopd.Neuren Pharmaceuticals (ASX:NEU) secured a positive opinion from the European Medicines Agency's (EMA) Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use, which recommended approval of Daybue for treating neurobehavioral symptoms of Rett syndrome in patients aged five years and older.

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Reserve Bank of Australia Outlines Framework for Additional Monetary Policy Tools for Low Interest Rates

The Reserve Bank of Australia said its Monetary Policy Board has disclosed a framework outlining how it would approach the design and use of additional monetary policy tools in a low-interest rate environment, according to a Monday statement from the central bank.The bank said the toolkit features six tools, including term lending facilities, government bond purchase programs, forward guidance with commitment, negative interest rate policy, term rate targets, and foreign exchange asset purchases, with further tools able to be added over time.The Monetary Policy Board could use some of the tools for various purposes, including to stimulate aggregate demand when the policy rate is very low, to address market dysfunction and sustain or repair monetary policy transmission channels, and to meet its statutory obligations of contributing to financial stability, the bank said.When preparing advice for the board, staff will detail options for how tools could be exited, including planning both for the end of the policy and for the return to normal settings, it added.