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US Refining Margins Surge as Midwest Diesel Cracks Rally, TPH Says

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US refining margins surged last week, led by a sharp rise in Midwest diesel cracks, while refining shares extended their rally despite a decline in longer-dated diesel futures margins, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note on Monday.

TPH analysts said that the refining equities gained 4.4% during the week, compared with a 0.1% decline in the S&P 500, taking their quarter-to-date advance to 65.2%.

Refiners with greater exposure to the US Midwest, or PADD 2, led the gains. CVR Energy (CVI) rose 8.1%, HF Sinclair (DINO) gained 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) advanced 7.3% as Midwest and Mid-Continent diesel cracks jumped $21 and $9 per barrel, respectively.

The rally pushed TPH's total US diesel crack up $7 on the week to $97/bbl, far above a five-year average of about $27/bbl. Spot margins strengthened while the futures market fell, with the 2027 diesel crack down $3/bbl during the week, highlighting a widening divergence between near-term refining economics and forward expectations.

Gasoline margins also strengthened, buoyed by a $10/bbl increase in the Midwest gasoline crack. TPH's total US gasoline crack rose $3 on the week to $39/bb/, while the broader US 3-2-1 crack, a key measure of refinery profitability, increased $4 to $59/bbl.

Price: $109.27, Change: $-6.63, Percent Change: -5.72%

What else is happening in Commodities?

Commodities

US Natural Gas Prices Tick Up on Bullish Storage Data, Forecast for Widespread Heat

US natural gas prices were modestly higher for the week, amid a bullish storage build and lingering heat across much of the country.In the futures market, the Nymex front-month contract ended the week at $2.899 per million British thermal units on Friday, up from $2.820/MMBtu on Sept. 11.Natural gas spot prices rose to $3.01/MMBtu on Wednesday, up $0.20/MMBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Thursday.This was primarily attributed to above-average temperatures across most of the South and Southwest, even as the heat retreated across the North and Northwest.Above-normal temperatures, however, are expected to blanket almost the whole of the country from Sept. through Oct. 1, keeping cooling gas demand elevated, according to the National Weather Service.Total US gas consumption dipped by 1%, or 0.8 billion cubic feet per day, largely due to a 1.2 Bcf/d, or 3% decline in power sector consumption, according to data from S&P Global.Meanwhile, LNG export feedgas flows edged lower during the week, at 18.6 Bcf/d, below the 30-day moving average of 18.78 Bcf/d, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model.The net injection of working gas into storage, for the week ended Sept. 11, was 44 Bcf, up from last week's 40 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,298 Bcf, according to the EIA's weekly inventory data.However, the inventory gains were below the forecast net build of 49 Bcf, the prior year's build of 75 Bcf, and the five-year average of 74 Bcf for this period, according to data compiled by Investing.com, making it a fairly bullish report.At 3,298 Bcf, inventories were 118 Bcf, or 4% above the five-year average for this period, but 122 Bcf, or 4% below the same period last year.Most regions reported a net injection into storage during the week, with the Midwest showcasing the highest, at 26 Bcf, bringing its total inventories to 934 Bcf. The South Central and Pacific regions, however, reported net withdrawals of 5 Bcf and 1 Bcf, respectively.Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted that as the storage cushion continued to narrow, the market could see additional support, "even as generation demand begins to ease."A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, the same as last week, with a total combined capacity of 138 Bcf, up 1 Bcf from last week.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count increased by two from 132 the previous week to 134 in the week ending Sept. 18, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. A year earlier, the US had 118 gas rigs in operation.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, decreased by six to 792 from 798 the previous week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $27.26/MMBtu for the week ended Sept. 16, $1.79/MMBtu above the prior week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $25.44/MMBtu, about $1.14/MMBtu above the prior week.

$BKR
Commodities

US Power Update: Prices Show Wide Regional Swings, With MISO Prices Above $1,200/MWh

US electricity markets saw wide price swings, with locational marginal prices varying sharply across regions as power demand shifted.PJM Interconnection led the markets at 5 p.m. ET with a locational marginal price of $129.57 per megawatt-hour, compared with $23.99/MWh for the Midcontinent Independent System Operator, which posted the lowest price at that hour.For intraday peaks, MISO reached $1,255.34/MWh at 1:05 a.m. ET, while the Southwest Power Pool recorded the lowest LMP at $2.09/MWh at 4:10 a.m. ET.The National Weather Service's Climate Prediction Center forecasts above-normal temperatures across most of the US from Sept. 26-Oct. 2, with near-normal readings in parts of the West, South, and the Northeast.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Flat on Strong Production, Healthy Inventories

US natural gas futures were essentially flat in after-hours trading on Friday, as strong production and healthy inventories limited gains despite late-summer heat supporting demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract both edged down by a modest 0.07% to $2.899 per million British thermal units.Fundamentals remained broadly balanced as late-summer heat across much of the US supported demand, while cooling needs were expected to fade ahead of autumn."Pervasive warmer-than-normal weather has kept generation load elevated, but record production and generally healthy storage inventories continue to keep a lid on pricing," Pinebrook Energy Advisors said.Celsius Energy said power burn for the week ended Sept. 17 was 42.7 billion cubic feet per day, up 2.3 Bcf/d from the same week a year earlier, underscoring the impact of above-average temperatures across much of the country in mid-September.Looking ahead, the Commodity Weather Group said Friday that forecasts had shifted cooler, with above-average temperatures now expected to cover a smaller portion of the South and Southeast from Sept. 23 to Oct. 2. The shift reduced estimates for early autumn air-conditioning demand.LNG exports continued to support demand. Estimated net gas flows to US LNG export terminals remained strong at 19.2 Bcf/d on Friday, up 0.7% from a week earlier.The US Energy Information Administration said LNG-carrying capacity on the 36 vessels that departed US ports during the week ended Sept. 16 was 138 Bcf, up 1 Bcf from the previous week. The number of tankers was unchanged.Total Lower 48 state gas demand was 75.7 Bcf/d on Friday, down 0.6% from a year earlier, Barchart said, citing BNEF data.On the supply side, US Lower 48 dry gas production was 113.8 Bcf/d on Friday, up 4.9% from a year earlier.The EIA's weekly report on Thursday was supportive of natural gas prices, showing a 44 Bcf increase in US natural gas inventories for the week ended Sept. 11. The build was below expectations for around a 48 Bcf increase and the five-year weekly average of 74 Bcf.Natural gas inventories were down 3.9% from a year earlier but remained 3.7% above the five-year seasonal average, indicating adequate supplies.