$CVI

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

Refiner Capital Returns Slip in Q1 as Crude Rally Pressures Free Cash Flow, TPH Says

US refiners delivered a softer but still solid quarter for shareholder returns in Q1, as rising crude prices and higher equity valuations pressured free cash flow and reduced buyback activity, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Friday.The average total capital return yield across refiners eased to 4.9% in Q1 from 6.3% in the prior quarter and 9.4% a year ago, the bank said. Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said the decline was driven largely by lower share repurchases and slightly reduced dividend yields.Share buybacks averaged a 2.8% yield, down from 4% in Q4 and 6.2% a year earlier, as higher crude prices and seasonal factors weighed on free cash flow. TPH said that half of the refiners in its coverage universe generated negative free cash flow in the quarter.Dividend yields also slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in Q4 and 3.2% a year ago, despite dividend increases from Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), reflecting higher average share prices during the period.Blair said among individual names, the strongest total capital return yields in Q1 were led by Par Pacific (PARR) at 9.2%, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at 7%, HF Sinclair (DINO) at 6.8%, and Valero Energy (VLO) at 6.1%. CVR Energy (CVI) was the only refiner that did not return capital during the quarter.Going ahead, TPH expects average total capital return yields to ease further to about 4.5% in Q2, despite what it described as robust profitability and free cash flow generation.The bank identified three main headwinds, including higher share prices, reduced opportunistic buybacks at Par Pacific, and a shift among some refiners, such as Phillips 66 and PBF Energy (PBF), toward debt reduction rather than share repurchases.TPH projects that Valero will lead total capital return yields in Q2 at an estimated 8.1%, followed by HF Sinclair at 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum at 6.7%.CVR Energy is expected to lag its peer group, with a projected yield of 1.1%, even as the energy firm moves to reinstate its dividend.Price: $176.42, Change: $+2.37, Percent Change: +1.36%

Earnings Flash (CVI) CVR Energy Posts Q1 Sales $1.98 Billion, vs. FactSet Est of $1.73 Billion

Earnings Flash (CVI) CVR Energy Posts Q1 Adjusted Loss $1.24, vs. FactSet Est Loss of $0.57

CVR Energy Reports Q1 Production Gains as Utilization Reaches 97%

CVR Energy (CVI) reported Q1 earnings Wednesday, showing total production of 211,812 barrels per day, up from 116,575 b/d a year earlier.The company reported total throughput of 214,268 b/d for the quarter ended Mar. 31, up from 120,377 b/d, a year earlier.Coffeyville refinery gathered crude throughput rose to 50,723 b/d in the quarter, from 26,728 b/d a year earlier, CVR Energy said.Other domestic crude throughput increased to 62,045 b/d from 12,348 b/d, while Canadian crude throughput rose to 17,384 b/d, compared with 640 b/d a year earlier, the company said.Coffeyville produced 74,789 b/d of gasoline for the quarter versus 18,940 b/d a year earlier, while distillate output increased to 57,138 b/d from 20,233 b/d, the company said.Other liquid products declined to 4,439 b/d for Q1, down from 6,324 b/d a year earlier, while solids output rose to 5,981 b/d from 1,321 b/d, CVR Energy said.Wynnewood refinery throughput for gathered crude declined to 58,154 b/d compared with 68,572 b/d a year earlier, the company added.Other domestic crude throughput increased to 11,556 b/d for the quarter, up from 573 b/d, the company said.Wynnewood produced 36,699 b/d of gasoline for Q1, compared with 39,740 b/d a year earlier, while distillate output rose to 30,343 b/d from 24,948 b/d, the company said.Other liquid products declined to 2,413 b/d from 5,058 b/d, while solids output remained largely unchanged at 10 b/d versus 11 b/d, CVR Energy said.Crude utilization reached 96.8% of capacity, compared with 52.7% a year earlier, reflecting improved operating performance across refining assets, the company said.For Q2, the company expects total refining throughput between 200,000 b/d and 215,000 b/d, with crude utilization projected at 92% to 99%, it said.