$CVI

CVR Energy Swings to Q2 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rise

CVR Energy (CVI) reported Q2 adjusted earnings late Wednesday of $0.34 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $0.23 a year earlier.Three analysts polled by FactSet expected a loss of $0.26.Revenue for the three months ended June 30 rose to $2.74 billion, from $1.76 billion a year earlier.Analysts expected $2.22 billion.CVR Energy reported Q2 dividend of $0.10 per share, payable on Aug. 17 to stockholders of record as of Aug. 10.

Refining Stocks Slip as Crude Rally Pressures Sector Despite Strong Fuel Margins, TPH Says

Refining stocks gave back recent gains after crude oil jumped about $13 per barrel on renewed Middle East tensions, ahead of Q2 earnings this week, according to TPH Energy Research in a Monday note.Refining shares fell 1.1% last week, compared with a 0.6% decline for the S&P 500. Par Pacific (PARR) gained 1.5% to lead the group, while CVR Energy (CVI) dropped 4.8%, the steepest decline, according to TPH strategist Matthew Blair.Singapore gasoline and diesel cracks each climbed $11/bbl, supporting Par Pacific. In the US, gasoline cracks fell by $3 to $38/bbl, while diesel cracks rose $1 to $66/bbl, with both holding five-year highs.The US West Coast posted the only weekly regional improvement as stronger gasoline and diesel margins supported refining economics.Northwest Europe margins weakened as gasoline cracks fell $9/bbl and diesel cracks dropped $3/bbl after the dated Brent premium over front-month Brent widened.Crude price spreads also widened sharply. Brent's premium over Western Canadian Select at Hardisty increased $5 to $25/bbl, while the Brent-Alaska North Slope spread widened $4 to $13/bbl.The note also highlighted several market developments, including China's June 2026 crude imports falling to a near-decade low, Russia considering a longer gasoline and diesel export ban, low Rhine River water levels and HF Sinclair (DINO) suing the Environmental Protection Agency over delayed small refinery exemption decisions.Q2 earnings season starts this week with results from HF Sinclair, PBF Energy (PBF), Valero Energy (VLO) and CVR Energy (CVI).Price: $77.86, Change: $+0.47, Percent Change: +0.61%

Refining Boom Returns as Geopolitical Tensions Push Fuel Profits to Multi-Year Highs, TPH Says

US refiners are on track to report one of their strongest quarters in years as geopolitical disruptions drove fuel margins sharply higher, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Wednesday.Average Q2 2026 earnings per share are projected at $6.53, above the consensus estimate of $6.20 and up from $0.59 in Q1.Blair said the quarter is shaping up to be the industry's most profitable since market disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Global refining runs fell to an estimated 78 million barrels per day in Q2 from 83 million b/d in Q1, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.Tighter supply pushed US gasoline crack spreads to an average of $25/bbl in the quarter, up from $9/bbl in Q1 and $16/bbl a year earlier.Diesel crack spreads climbed to $45/bbl from $30/bbl in the previous quarter and $17/bbl a year earlier. Margins improved across most US refining regions, with the Southwest and Gulf Coast posting the largest gains over the year. Jet fuel and naphtha margins also strengthened.In Asia, Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads rose to $33/bbl and $69/bbl, respectively, from $16/bbl and $41/bbl in Q1. Singapore diesel margins reached five-year highs during much of the quarter.Higher fuel margins were partly offset by tighter crude price differentials, steeper backwardation and higher tanker rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or tight spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.Marathon Petroleum (MPC), PBF Energy (PBF) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are expected to post the largest earnings beats versus consensus, while CVR Energy (CVI) and Delek US Holdings (DK) may underperform expectations.The third quarter has also started strongly, with gasoline and diesel margins rising further amid renewed US-Iran tensions and continued constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Blair forecasts average third-quarter earnings per share of $5.91, roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $5.94.Price: $296.79, Change: $-6.61, Percent Change: -2.18%

Refiners Start Q3 Strong with Better Fuel Margins, Tight Inventories, TPH Says

US refiners have begun the third quarter on a strong footing, with refining margins improving across most companies as low fuel inventories and renewed tensions between the US and Iran support market conditions, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.Blair said company-specific refining indicators are off to a "fantastic start" about halfway through the first month of the quarter, with most refiners benefiting from stronger product cracks and favorable crude market dynamics.Among the large-cap refiners, Valero Energy (VLO) is showing the biggest improvement over the quarter, with TPH estimating refining margins have increased by about $9.15 per barrel.Blair attributed the gains to the company's significant exposure to the North Atlantic and US Gulf Coast, where refining economics have strengthened the most since the Q2.Valero is also benefiting from wider Gulf Coast crude differentials, including ASCI and Maya grades.Phillips 66 (PSX) is estimated to be up about $6.70/bbl over the quarter, supported by similar regional exposure. However, Blair said the company's performance has been somewhat constrained by higher crude prices and weaker Gulf Coast product trends.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is estimated to have improved by roughly $5.95/bbl from the prior quarter. While product margins in the Chicago region have not strengthened as much as elsewhere, Blair said that has been partially offset by a more favorable structure in the WTI crude market.Among small- and mid-cap refiners, Delek US Holdings (DK) stands out as the strongest performer, with TPH estimating a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about $13.60/bbl.Blair cited the company's Gulf Coast product exposure, wider Midland crude differentials and improved WTI market structure as key drivers.CVR Energy (CVI) is also seeing a substantial improvement, with estimated margins up about $9.85/bbl before accounting for renewable volume obligation costs, or about $7.34/bbl after those costs.HF Sinclair (DINO) is estimated to be up about $2.80/bbl, benefiting from stronger Group 3 gasoline cracks, although Blair noted that the company's exposure to the Rockies and Southwest has moderated from exceptionally strong Q2 levels.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is the only refiner in TPH's coverage expected to post a quarter-over-quarter decline, with estimated margins down about $2/bbl.Blair attributed the weakness primarily to Singapore refining margins retreating from record Q2 levels, along with TPH's expectation of more challenging Hawaiian crude differentials during Q3.Price: $297.50, Change: $+1.71, Percent Change: +0.58%

Refiners Rally as Renewed US-Iran Fighting Lifts Fuel Margins, TPH Says

US refining equities surged last week, outpacing the broader market as renewed fighting between the US and Iran stoked concerns over energy supplies, driving a sharp climb in gasoline and diesel cracks, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note Monday.TPH analysts said refining equities jumped 8% last week, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which gained 1.2%.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said higher-beta refiners led the advance, with Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares rising 12.5%, PBF Energy (PBF) gaining 11.2%, and CVR Energy (CVI) climbing 8.7%.Blair said that the rally came as renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked concerns over potential disruptions to crude and refined product flows, pushing gasoline and diesel margins higher.US gasoline cracks rose by about $3 per barrel last week to $40/bbl, with the West Coast and Rockies regions posting the strongest gains.Diesel margins climbed even more sharply, surging $10/bbl to $53/bbl, buoyed by stronger pricing across the West Coast, Rockies, Gulf Coast and Midwest markets.TPH said the East Coast and Gulf Coast markets entered Q3 with the largest improvement in refining margins over the quarter.Meanwhile, global markets showed mixed signals. Northwest Europe gasoline margins climbed $3/bbl to $37/bbl, reaching the highest level in five years, while Singapore gasoline margins weakened by $5/bbl to $23/bbl amid softer regional demand and supply dynamics.TPH said forward refining margins also strengthened. The 2026 and 2027 6-3-2-1 crack spread futures curves improved by $2/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, reaching $19/bbl and $14/bbl, driven largely by gains in diesel markets.Crude oil differentials also improved during the week. TPH said Syncrude and Alaska North Slope crude each widened by $8/bbl over Brent, while other grades, including WTI, Mars, Maya, Western Canadian Select at Houston, Western Canadian Select premiums at Hardisty and Bakken also strengthened.WTI differentials improved by $1/bbl, while Mars and Maya gained $1/bbl each. Bakken widened by $2/bbl, the bank said.However, despite the recent rally, most refining stocks remain valued below their three-year forward consensus enterprise value-to-EBITDA averages.TPH said only Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are currently trading above their historical valuation benchmarks.Price: $70.20, Change: $+4.42, Percent Change: +6.72%

US Refiners Poised to Beat Q3 Estimates on Strong Product Margins, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy Research expects US independent refiners to deliver stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings as gasoline and diesel margins remain robust, it said in a Tuesday note.TPH raised its average Q3 earnings per share estimate for the sector to $5.83 from $4.97, above the consensus forecast of $5.22 per share.TPH still expects earnings to remain below its Q2 estimate of $6.18 and the Street's $5.74.TPH said refining margins have started the third quarter strongly, supported by an unusual seasonal increase in US gasoline margins.TPH said its US gasoline margin indicator increased to $35 per barrel in Q3 from $28 per barrel in Q2, after adjusting for Renewable Volume Obligation costs and measuring against Brent crude.US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows and stand 6% below the five-year average, while gasoline yields have remained about 3 percentage points below normal over the past two weeks as refiners favored diesel production, the brokerage said.Diesel margins also improved, with TPH's US futures indicator increasing to $49/bbl in Q3 from $48/bbl in Q2 despite the US-Iran peace agreement.Low inventories, Russian refinery outages and a steeper global cost curve continued supporting diesel markets.TPH said crude differentials have narrowed against Brent for several grades, including WTI-Cushing, Syncrude, Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Western Canadian Select at Houston and Alaska North Slope, creating a modest headwind for refiners.Company-specific indicators also strengthened early in the quarter, with Valero Energy (VLO) up $7.86/bbl from the prior quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) up $5.71/bbl and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) up $4.08/bbl, according to TPH.The firm said lower crude backwardation, wider octane spreads and cheaper tanker rates should improve capture rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or constrained spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.However, weaker jet fuel margins relative to diesel, flat crude prices and a roughly $2/bbl increase in Renewable Volume Obligation costs will offset some of those gains.TPH expects Midwest ethanol margins to improve by about 3 cents per gallon from the Q2 on stronger co-product returns, while retail operations recover. Renewable diesel and polyethylene margins are expected to weaken.Analysts forecast the largest earnings upside versus consensus for Valero Energy, HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while maintaining estimates below consensus for PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Energy (CVI).TPH expects refiners to increase shareholder distributions in Q3 after limiting returns in Q2 because of market volatility.The firm forecasts an average total capital return yield of 9% in Q3, up from 5% in Q2, led by Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair and Delek US Holdings (DK).

Refiners Outperform Broader Market on Stronger Fuel Margins, TPH Energy Says

Renewed Middle East supply concerns boosted refining equities and fuel margins last week, while second-quarter refining fundamentals continued to improve, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.US refining stocks climbed 7.6% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.0% decline after tensions between the US and Iran intensified. The note cited Iran's strike on a cargo ship and the US response targeting drone and missile storage sites.Among refiners, PBF Energy (PBF) gained 15.6%, Delek US Holdings (DK) rose 15.3%, and Valero Energy (VLO) advanced 9.8%. CVR Energy (CVI) fell 1.1% after unexpectedly replacing its chief executive officer, TPH Energy said.Gasoline cracks strengthened across key regions, with US margins rising $6 per barrel to $32/bbl, Northwest Europe gaining $5/bbl to $29/bbl, Singapore increasing $1/bbl to $31/bbl, and 2026 gasoline futures climbing $1/bbl to $14/bbl, TPH said.Diesel cracks also moved higher, as US margins increased $3/bbl to $38/bbl, Northwest Europe rose$7/bbl to $41/bbl, Singapore added $1/bbl to $42/bbl, and 2026 diesel futures advanced $2/bbl to $35/bbl, TPH added.TPH expects second-quarter 2026 product cracks to post their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2022. US gasoline cracks are on pace to rise $16/bbl quarter over quarter to $25/bbl, while US diesel cracks are expected to increase $15/bbl to $45/bbl.The Southwest posted the greatest improvement in refining margins, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The West Coast recorded the smallest quarterly gain, while the Mid-Continent showed the weakest year-over-year improvement, TPH said.Higher crude differentials offset part of the stronger refining margins as several grades tightened against Brent. West Texas Intermediate tightened by $1/bbl, Louisiana Light Sweet by $2/bbl, Mars by $4/bbl, Maya by $3/bbl, Bakken by $7/bbl, Syncrude by $5/bbl, West Texas Sour by $2/bbl, and Alaska North Slope by $11/bbl, the company added.Western Canadian Select widened by $4/bbl at Hardisty and $1/bbl at Houston. TPH also expects the West Texas Intermediate market structure to reduce the value of US inland barrels by $5/bbl during the second quarter.

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

Refiner Capital Returns Slip in Q1 as Crude Rally Pressures Free Cash Flow, TPH Says

US refiners delivered a softer but still solid quarter for shareholder returns in Q1, as rising crude prices and higher equity valuations pressured free cash flow and reduced buyback activity, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Friday.The average total capital return yield across refiners eased to 4.9% in Q1 from 6.3% in the prior quarter and 9.4% a year ago, the bank said. Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said the decline was driven largely by lower share repurchases and slightly reduced dividend yields.Share buybacks averaged a 2.8% yield, down from 4% in Q4 and 6.2% a year earlier, as higher crude prices and seasonal factors weighed on free cash flow. TPH said that half of the refiners in its coverage universe generated negative free cash flow in the quarter.Dividend yields also slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in Q4 and 3.2% a year ago, despite dividend increases from Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), reflecting higher average share prices during the period.Blair said among individual names, the strongest total capital return yields in Q1 were led by Par Pacific (PARR) at 9.2%, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at 7%, HF Sinclair (DINO) at 6.8%, and Valero Energy (VLO) at 6.1%. CVR Energy (CVI) was the only refiner that did not return capital during the quarter.Going ahead, TPH expects average total capital return yields to ease further to about 4.5% in Q2, despite what it described as robust profitability and free cash flow generation.The bank identified three main headwinds, including higher share prices, reduced opportunistic buybacks at Par Pacific, and a shift among some refiners, such as Phillips 66 and PBF Energy (PBF), toward debt reduction rather than share repurchases.TPH projects that Valero will lead total capital return yields in Q2 at an estimated 8.1%, followed by HF Sinclair at 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum at 6.7%.CVR Energy is expected to lag its peer group, with a projected yield of 1.1%, even as the energy firm moves to reinstate its dividend.Price: $176.42, Change: $+2.37, Percent Change: +1.36%

Earnings Flash (CVI) CVR Energy Posts Q1 Sales $1.98 Billion, vs. FactSet Est of $1.73 Billion

Earnings Flash (CVI) CVR Energy Posts Q1 Adjusted Loss $1.24, vs. FactSet Est Loss of $0.57

CVR Energy Reports Q1 Production Gains as Utilization Reaches 97%

CVR Energy (CVI) reported Q1 earnings Wednesday, showing total production of 211,812 barrels per day, up from 116,575 b/d a year earlier.The company reported total throughput of 214,268 b/d for the quarter ended Mar. 31, up from 120,377 b/d, a year earlier.Coffeyville refinery gathered crude throughput rose to 50,723 b/d in the quarter, from 26,728 b/d a year earlier, CVR Energy said.Other domestic crude throughput increased to 62,045 b/d from 12,348 b/d, while Canadian crude throughput rose to 17,384 b/d, compared with 640 b/d a year earlier, the company said.Coffeyville produced 74,789 b/d of gasoline for the quarter versus 18,940 b/d a year earlier, while distillate output increased to 57,138 b/d from 20,233 b/d, the company said.Other liquid products declined to 4,439 b/d for Q1, down from 6,324 b/d a year earlier, while solids output rose to 5,981 b/d from 1,321 b/d, CVR Energy said.Wynnewood refinery throughput for gathered crude declined to 58,154 b/d compared with 68,572 b/d a year earlier, the company added.Other domestic crude throughput increased to 11,556 b/d for the quarter, up from 573 b/d, the company said.Wynnewood produced 36,699 b/d of gasoline for Q1, compared with 39,740 b/d a year earlier, while distillate output rose to 30,343 b/d from 24,948 b/d, the company said.Other liquid products declined to 2,413 b/d from 5,058 b/d, while solids output remained largely unchanged at 10 b/d versus 11 b/d, CVR Energy said.Crude utilization reached 96.8% of capacity, compared with 52.7% a year earlier, reflecting improved operating performance across refining assets, the company said.For Q2, the company expects total refining throughput between 200,000 b/d and 215,000 b/d, with crude utilization projected at 92% to 99%, it said.