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US Natural Gas Prices Tick Up on Bullish Storage Data, Forecast for Widespread Heat

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US natural gas prices were modestly higher for the week, amid a bullish storage build and lingering heat across much of the country.

In the futures market, the Nymex front-month contract ended the week at $2.899 per million British thermal units on Friday, up from $2.820/MMBtu on Sept. 11.

Natural gas spot prices rose to $3.01/MMBtu on Wednesday, up $0.20/MMBtu, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Thursday.

This was primarily attributed to above-average temperatures across most of the South and Southwest, even as the heat retreated across the North and Northwest.

Above-normal temperatures, however, are expected to blanket almost the whole of the country from Sept. through Oct. 1, keeping cooling gas demand elevated, according to the National Weather Service.

Total US gas consumption dipped by 1%, or 0.8 billion cubic feet per day, largely due to a 1.2 Bcf/d, or 3% decline in power sector consumption, according to data from S&P Global.

Meanwhile, LNG export feedgas flows edged lower during the week, at 18.6 Bcf/d, below the 30-day moving average of 18.78 Bcf/d, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model.

The net injection of working gas into storage, for the week ended Sept. 11, was 44 Bcf, up from last week's 40 Bcf, bringing total gas inventories to 3,298 Bcf, according to the EIA's weekly inventory data.

However, the inventory gains were below the forecast net build of 49 Bcf, the prior year's build of 75 Bcf, and the five-year average of 74 Bcf for this period, according to data compiled by Investing.com, making it a fairly bullish report.

At 3,298 Bcf, inventories were 118 Bcf, or 4% above the five-year average for this period, but 122 Bcf, or 4% below the same period last year.

Most regions reported a net injection into storage during the week, with the Midwest showcasing the highest, at 26 Bcf, bringing its total inventories to 934 Bcf. The South Central and Pacific regions, however, reported net withdrawals of 5 Bcf and 1 Bcf, respectively.

Pinebrook Energy Advisors noted that as the storage cushion continued to narrow, the market could see additional support, "even as generation demand begins to ease."

A total of 36 LNG carriers departed US ports during the week, the same as last week, with a total combined capacity of 138 Bcf, up 1 Bcf from last week.

Meanwhile, the US gas rig count increased by two from 132 the previous week to 134 in the week ending Sept. 18, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. A year earlier, the US had 118 gas rigs in operation.

The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, decreased by six to 792 from 798 the previous week.

In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $27.26/MMBtu for the week ended Sept. 16, $1.79/MMBtu above the prior week. Meanwhile, the Japan-Korea Marker averaged $25.44/MMBtu, about $1.14/MMBtu above the prior week.

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Commodities

PJM Activates Demand Response, Secures US DOE Emergency Order Amid Heat, Outages

PJM Interconnection activated demand response resources and secured an emergency order from the US Department of Energy as unusually warm September weather and 36 gigawatts of outages tightened power-system reserves, according to a statement on Thursday.The DOE order, secured amid the heat and in effect through Friday, eases some plant restrictions and permits backup power use at large-load sites, including data centers.PJM issued Pre-Emergency and Emergency Demand Response for customers across its footprint Thursday afternoon to strengthen reserves ahead of the evening peak.The programs compensate customers in advance for agreeing to reduce electricity use when PJM calls on them, providing operators with additional flexibility during periods of higher demand.A Maximum Generation or Load Management Alert also remained active across PJM, allowing generation and transmission owners to defer or cancel maintenance or testing where possible, the grid operator said.The alert also warns neighboring systems that PJM may curtail electricity exports.Above-normal temperatures across much of PJM pushed the forecast peak load to about 132 GW as of noon Thursday.Hotter weather also increased electricity demand and export needs to neighboring regions to the south and west, where temperatures were even higher.PJM is in its annual outage season, when transmission and generation operators typically conduct maintenance and construction from mid-September through December ahead of extreme-weather demand, PJM Inside Lines said.PJM pulled back some planned generation and transmission outages, but roughly 36 GW of generation capacity remained offline, along with transmission outages, the grid operator said.

Commodities

Ethanol's Renewable Identification Numbers Generation Held Steady in August, EPA Says

The number of renewable identification numbers generated in August for ethanol under the Renewable Fuel Standard remained steady from July, the Environmental Protection Agency reported on Thursday.EPA reported 1.2 billion D6 ethanol RINs in August, almost all for ethanol by domestic producers. That was unchanged from July.For D4 biomass-based diesel, 693 million RINs were generated in August, down from 545.8 million in 2025.D5 advanced biofuel generation totaled 23.1 million RINS.The D4 and D5 combined total of 716.2 million fell below July's total of 823.2 million.Matt Gammans, assistant professor of agricultural policy at North Dakota State University, says the RIN generation report suggests a lower production rate than what will be needed to hit the Renewable Volume Obligation."That said, generation has increased from last year. The recent decline will need to be offset by stronger production later in the year or a draw on banked credits. If we get another report this low next month, we might expect to see a positive response in RIN prices," Gammans said.

Commodities

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Fall as Demand Outlook Weighs on Storage Bullishness

US natural gas prices softened in after-hours trading Thursday as a cooler weather outlook for late September outweighed bullish sentiment from a smaller-than-expected weekly storage build.The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each fell 0.76% to $2.869 per million British thermal units.The approach of autumn is weighing on prices as cooling demand is expected to fade beginning next week. Barchart, citing Commodity Weather Group forecasts, said Thursday that the outlook had shifted cooler, with above-average temperatures expected to cover a smaller portion of the South and Southeast from Sept. 22 through Oct. 1.The cooler outlook offset some of the support provided by the Energy Information Administration's weekly storage report. US natural gas inventories rose by 44 billion cubic feet in the week ended Sept. 11, the EIA said Thursday, below analysts' estimates for a build of 48 Bcf to 49 Bcf and well below the five-year average increase of 74 Bcf for the week.The injection was also substantially below the 90 Bcf build recorded during the same week last year.Working gas in storage stood at 3,298 Bcf, down 122 Bcf, or 3.6%, from year-earlier levels but 118 Bcf, or 3.7%, above the five-year average. A week earlier, inventories were 2.7% below year-ago levels and 4.8% above the five-year average.Pinebrook Energy Advisors said storage builds have increased in recent weeks but remain lighter than normal for this time of year, steadily eroding the storage cushion accumulated earlier in the summer.That tightening backdrop has provided underlying support to the market even as power-generation demand begins to ease, the advisory firm said.Late-season heat has limited storage injections by driving demand from the power sector. Despite temperatures remaining above normal, they are trending lower as the season advances, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing Andy Huenefeld of Pinebrook Energy Advisors.Huenefeld said the trend points to stronger storage builds in the coming weeks before more significant heating demand emerges in October.US Lower 48 dry-gas production was 113.2 Bcf/d Thursday, up 5.0% from a year earlier, according to BNEF. Lower 48 gas demand was 77.0 Bcf/d, up 3.8% year over year.Estimated LNG net flows to US export terminals were 18.7 Bcf/d, down 4.1% from the previous week, BNEF data showed.Market sentiment had received a boost Wednesday after the Edison Electric Institute reported that US Lower 48 electricity output in the week ended Sept. 12 rose 16.1% from a year earlier to 94,427 gigawatt-hours.Electricity output over the 52 weeks ended Sept. 12 rose 3.3% year over year to 4,405,549 GWh.