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Commodities

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

$CVI$DINO$DK$PARR$PSX$VLO
Wire

Phillips 66, HF Sinclair Lead Refining Margin Recovery in Q2, TPH Energy Says

Phillips 66 (PSX) posted the largest month-over-month refining indicator increase in May, while HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) delivered the greatest improvement in Q2, TPH Energy said Monday.Stronger gasoline cracks across the North Atlantic, Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions lifted Valero Energy's (VLO) refining indicator to $33.70 per barrel in May from $28.97/bbl in April, according to TPH.While diesel cracks and crude differentials produced mixed results, wider West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet and Argus Sour Crude Index spreads helped push Valero's Q2 refining indicator $13.50/bbl above Q1 levels, TPH said.Valero's ethanol indicator increased to $0.66 per gallon in May from $0.65/gal in April and now stands $0.16/gal higher over the quarter, according to TPH.Despite a decline to $1.07/gal from $1.22/gal in April as feedstock costs rose, Valero's renewable diesel indicator remains $0.15/gal above Q1 levels, TPH said.Support from lower crude prices in the Central Corridor and narrower Dated Brent spreads in the Atlantic Basin helped lift Phillips 66's refining indicator to $29.45/bbl in May from $17.92/bbl in April, according to TPH.Although Phillips 66's renewable diesel indicator eased to $2.07/gal from $2.30/gal in April, the metric remains $1.32/gal higher quarter over quarter, TPH said.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) increased its refining and marketing indicator to $35.88/bbl in May from $33.02/bbl in April as Mid-Continent margins improved $15.10/bbl and Gulf Coast margins advanced $6.56/bbl month over month, according to TPH.West Coast margins declined $0.59/bbl month over month, while narrower sweet and sour crude differentials and weaker backwardation weighed on results, with the Q2 indicator standing $16.53/bbl above Q1 levels, TPH said.HF Sinclair increased its renewable volume obligation-adjusted refining indicator to $33.81/bbl in May from $27.35/bbl in April as stronger Mid-Continent and West Coast margins lifted the metric, bringing its Q2 improvement to $18.85/bbl quarter over quarter, TPH said.TPH said HF Sinclair's lubricants business continued to strengthen, with Group I-III margins averaging $108.78/bbl above Q1 levels in Q2, while its renewable diesel indicator remains up $0.69/gal quarter over quarter despite a $0.04/gal decline in May, and wider Western Canadian Select differentials could provide additional upside.Price: $182.20, Change: $+1.95, Percent Change: +1.08%

$DINO$MPC$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Retail Fuel Margin Indicator Falls to Lowest Level Since 2021, TPH Says

Higher crude oil and refining costs pushed TPH Energy's US retail margin indicator down 11 cents per gallon in May, even as gasoline prices continued to climb, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Pump prices increased 38 cents per gallon from April to $4.48 per gallon, the highest monthly average since July 2022, but higher refining margins and crude costs more than offset the increase, TPH said.Refining margins rose 33 cents per gallon during the month, while crude costs increased 13 cents per gallon as the Iran conflict and seasonal trends lifted fuel input costs, according to the note.The retail margin indicator fell 11 cents per gallon from the first quarter and reached its lowest level since the first quarter of 2021, TPH said.The PADD 4 retail margin indicator increased 11 cents per gallon from the prior quarter as retail fuel prices in the region climbed $1.29 per gallon.The PADD 2 retail margin indicator declined 17 cents per gallon from the prior quarter, while the PADD 1 indicator fell 15 cents per gallon and the PADD 5 indicator decreased 5 cents per gallon, according to the note.Among companies covered by TPH, Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has the greatest exposure to retail fuel margins through its service station operations in Hawaii and Washington, the report said.The trend could also affect wholesale fuel marketing activities at Phillips 66 (PSX) and HF Sinclair (DINO), according to TPH.

$DINO$PARR$PSX
Research

Mizuho Downgrades HF Sinclair to Neutral From Outperform, Adjusts Price Target to $79 From $67

HF Sinclair (DINO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $74.69, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Commodities

Refiner Capital Returns Slip in Q1 as Crude Rally Pressures Free Cash Flow, TPH Says

US refiners delivered a softer but still solid quarter for shareholder returns in Q1, as rising crude prices and higher equity valuations pressured free cash flow and reduced buyback activity, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Friday.The average total capital return yield across refiners eased to 4.9% in Q1 from 6.3% in the prior quarter and 9.4% a year ago, the bank said. Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said the decline was driven largely by lower share repurchases and slightly reduced dividend yields.Share buybacks averaged a 2.8% yield, down from 4% in Q4 and 6.2% a year earlier, as higher crude prices and seasonal factors weighed on free cash flow. TPH said that half of the refiners in its coverage universe generated negative free cash flow in the quarter.Dividend yields also slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in Q4 and 3.2% a year ago, despite dividend increases from Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), reflecting higher average share prices during the period.Blair said among individual names, the strongest total capital return yields in Q1 were led by Par Pacific (PARR) at 9.2%, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at 7%, HF Sinclair (DINO) at 6.8%, and Valero Energy (VLO) at 6.1%. CVR Energy (CVI) was the only refiner that did not return capital during the quarter.Going ahead, TPH expects average total capital return yields to ease further to about 4.5% in Q2, despite what it described as robust profitability and free cash flow generation.The bank identified three main headwinds, including higher share prices, reduced opportunistic buybacks at Par Pacific, and a shift among some refiners, such as Phillips 66 and PBF Energy (PBF), toward debt reduction rather than share repurchases.TPH projects that Valero will lead total capital return yields in Q2 at an estimated 8.1%, followed by HF Sinclair at 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum at 6.7%.CVR Energy is expected to lag its peer group, with a projected yield of 1.1%, even as the energy firm moves to reinstate its dividend.Price: $176.42, Change: $+2.37, Percent Change: +1.36%

$CVI$DINO$MPC$PBF$PSX$VLO
Research

Research Alert: CFRA Lifts View On Shares Of H.f. Sinclair To Buy From Hold

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:Our 12-month target price of $87, raised $31, reflects a combination of relative valuation and DCF models. On a relative basis, we apply a 7.0x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA. The applied multiple is above DINO's historical forward average, but below peers. We think a modest discount to peers is reasonable on the basis of below-average return on invested capital. Still, a multiple above normal levels for DINO is also reasonable, because we think refining margins will be high in both 2026 and 2027. This approach yields a value of $85 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using medium-term free cash flow growth of 5%, 2% terminal growth, discounted at a WACC of 7.2%, yields intrinsic value of $89 per share. We lift our 2026 EPS estimate by $2.87 to $7.30 and 2027's by $1.66 to $6.26. In our view, DINO has above-average exposure to middle distillates, which is where we think refining margins will be relatively stronger. Shares yield 2.8%.

$DINO
Equities

UBS Adjusts Price Target on HF Sinclair to $80 From $65, Maintains Buy Rating

HF Sinclair (DINO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72.69, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$DINO
Research

Research Alert: Dino: Q1 Refining Margin Strength

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:DINO delivered exceptional Q1 results with adjusted EPS of $0.69 vs. a consensus loss of $0.27, beating by $0.74, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $426M from $201M. The refining segment led the recovery with $514M operating income vs. a$30M loss in the prior year, though regional performance diverged with West margins expanding to $14.61/barrel while Mid-Continent compressed to $3.58/barrel. We believe the strong performance reflects improving refining fundamentals and regulatory tailwinds in renewables. The renewables segment returned to profitability with $182M operating income, benefiting from higher volumes, improved margins, and $49M in prior-year Producer Tax Credit benefits. Cash generation remained robust at $457M from operations, more than covering $167M in shareholder returns, while the balance sheet strengthened with cash rising to $1.15B. We expect continued benefit from favorable renewable diesel demand dynamics and small refinery RINs waivers.

$DINO
Research

Research Alert: Dino: Q1 Refining Margin Strength

CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:DINO delivered exceptional Q1 results with adjusted EPS of $0.69 vs. a consensus loss of $0.27, beating by $0.74, while adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $426M from $201M. The refining segment led the recovery with $514M operating income vs. a$30M loss in the prior year, though regional performance diverged with West margins expanding to $14.61/barrel while Mid-Continent compressed to $3.58/barrel. We believe the strong performance reflects improving refining fundamentals and regulatory tailwinds in renewables. The renewables segment returned to profitability with $182M operating income, benefiting from higher volumes, improved margins, and $49M in prior-year Producer Tax Credit benefits. Cash generation remained robust at $457M from operations, more than covering $167M in shareholder returns, while the balance sheet strengthened with cash rising to $1.15B. We expect continued benefit from favorable renewable diesel demand dynamics and small refinery RINs waivers.

$DINO
Equities

HF Sinclair Swings to Q1 Adjusted Earnings, Revenue Rises

HF Sinclair (DINO) reported Q1 adjusted earnings Friday of $0.69 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $0.27 a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected a loss of $0.06.Sales and other revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $7.12 billion, up from $6.37 billion a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected $6.83 billion.

$DINO
Wire

Refining Margins Unlikely to Return to Pre-Conflict Levels Anytime Soon, Morgan Stanley Says

Refining margins are unlikely to return to pre-conflict levels anytime soon, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens, due to refinery damage, the time required to normalize trade flows, and the need to rebuild inventories, Morgan Stanley analysts said in a Friday note to clients.Analysts said first-quarter financial results for refining companies will be pressured by lower capture rates amid still-tight crude differentials, planned and unplanned maintenance, and derivative headwinds, partially offset by stronger secondary products.Morgan Stanley said near-term U.S. refining margins have roughly doubled since the start of the Iran conflict and now sit near levels last reached in 2022 and 2023.On Phillips 66 (PSX), analysts upgraded the stock to overweight from equal-weight.They said the chemicals business is a key factor that sets the company apart from the rest of the sector, with earnings from the segment expected to rise to about $1.1 billion from $352 million. They also raised the price target to $174 from $147.Morgan Stanley retained an overweight rating on Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and raised its price target to $233 from $200. It also maintained an overweight rating on HF Sinclair (DINO) and increased its price target to $66 from $57.On Valero Energy (VLO), Morgan Stanley maintained an equal-weight rating and raised the price target to $222 from $182. It also maintained an equal-weight rating on Delek US Holdings (DK) and raised its price target to $40 from $38.On PBF Energy (PBF), Morgan Stanley maintained an underweight rating and raised the price target to $34 from $27.Price: $224.00, Change: $+2.90, Percent Change: +1.31%

$DINO$DK$MPC$PBF$PSX$VLO
Equities

Morgan Stanley Raises Price Target on HF Sinclair to $66 From $57, Keeps Outperform Rating

HF Sinclair (DINO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $66.31, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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