$MPC

Marathon Petroleum Keeps Quarterly Dividend at $1.00 a Share, Payable Sept. 10 to Shareholders of Record on Aug. 19

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $376 From $291, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $306.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

TD Cowen Adjusts Marathon Petroleum Price Target to $357 From $315, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $297.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

Refining Boom Returns as Geopolitical Tensions Push Fuel Profits to Multi-Year Highs, TPH Says

US refiners are on track to report one of their strongest quarters in years as geopolitical disruptions drove fuel margins sharply higher, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Wednesday.Average Q2 2026 earnings per share are projected at $6.53, above the consensus estimate of $6.20 and up from $0.59 in Q1.Blair said the quarter is shaping up to be the industry's most profitable since market disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Global refining runs fell to an estimated 78 million barrels per day in Q2 from 83 million b/d in Q1, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.Tighter supply pushed US gasoline crack spreads to an average of $25/bbl in the quarter, up from $9/bbl in Q1 and $16/bbl a year earlier.Diesel crack spreads climbed to $45/bbl from $30/bbl in the previous quarter and $17/bbl a year earlier. Margins improved across most US refining regions, with the Southwest and Gulf Coast posting the largest gains over the year. Jet fuel and naphtha margins also strengthened.In Asia, Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads rose to $33/bbl and $69/bbl, respectively, from $16/bbl and $41/bbl in Q1. Singapore diesel margins reached five-year highs during much of the quarter.Higher fuel margins were partly offset by tighter crude price differentials, steeper backwardation and higher tanker rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or tight spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.Marathon Petroleum (MPC), PBF Energy (PBF) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are expected to post the largest earnings beats versus consensus, while CVR Energy (CVI) and Delek US Holdings (DK) may underperform expectations.The third quarter has also started strongly, with gasoline and diesel margins rising further amid renewed US-Iran tensions and continued constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Blair forecasts average third-quarter earnings per share of $5.91, roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $5.94.Price: $296.79, Change: $-6.61, Percent Change: -2.18%

Refiners Start Q3 Strong with Better Fuel Margins, Tight Inventories, TPH Says

US refiners have begun the third quarter on a strong footing, with refining margins improving across most companies as low fuel inventories and renewed tensions between the US and Iran support market conditions, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.Blair said company-specific refining indicators are off to a "fantastic start" about halfway through the first month of the quarter, with most refiners benefiting from stronger product cracks and favorable crude market dynamics.Among the large-cap refiners, Valero Energy (VLO) is showing the biggest improvement over the quarter, with TPH estimating refining margins have increased by about $9.15 per barrel.Blair attributed the gains to the company's significant exposure to the North Atlantic and US Gulf Coast, where refining economics have strengthened the most since the Q2.Valero is also benefiting from wider Gulf Coast crude differentials, including ASCI and Maya grades.Phillips 66 (PSX) is estimated to be up about $6.70/bbl over the quarter, supported by similar regional exposure. However, Blair said the company's performance has been somewhat constrained by higher crude prices and weaker Gulf Coast product trends.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is estimated to have improved by roughly $5.95/bbl from the prior quarter. While product margins in the Chicago region have not strengthened as much as elsewhere, Blair said that has been partially offset by a more favorable structure in the WTI crude market.Among small- and mid-cap refiners, Delek US Holdings (DK) stands out as the strongest performer, with TPH estimating a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about $13.60/bbl.Blair cited the company's Gulf Coast product exposure, wider Midland crude differentials and improved WTI market structure as key drivers.CVR Energy (CVI) is also seeing a substantial improvement, with estimated margins up about $9.85/bbl before accounting for renewable volume obligation costs, or about $7.34/bbl after those costs.HF Sinclair (DINO) is estimated to be up about $2.80/bbl, benefiting from stronger Group 3 gasoline cracks, although Blair noted that the company's exposure to the Rockies and Southwest has moderated from exceptionally strong Q2 levels.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is the only refiner in TPH's coverage expected to post a quarter-over-quarter decline, with estimated margins down about $2/bbl.Blair attributed the weakness primarily to Singapore refining margins retreating from record Q2 levels, along with TPH's expectation of more challenging Hawaiian crude differentials during Q3.Price: $297.50, Change: $+1.71, Percent Change: +0.58%

Citigroup Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $303 From $257, Maintains Neutral Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $295.31, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

Refiners Rally as Renewed US-Iran Fighting Lifts Fuel Margins, TPH Says

US refining equities surged last week, outpacing the broader market as renewed fighting between the US and Iran stoked concerns over energy supplies, driving a sharp climb in gasoline and diesel cracks, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note Monday.TPH analysts said refining equities jumped 8% last week, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which gained 1.2%.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said higher-beta refiners led the advance, with Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares rising 12.5%, PBF Energy (PBF) gaining 11.2%, and CVR Energy (CVI) climbing 8.7%.Blair said that the rally came as renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked concerns over potential disruptions to crude and refined product flows, pushing gasoline and diesel margins higher.US gasoline cracks rose by about $3 per barrel last week to $40/bbl, with the West Coast and Rockies regions posting the strongest gains.Diesel margins climbed even more sharply, surging $10/bbl to $53/bbl, buoyed by stronger pricing across the West Coast, Rockies, Gulf Coast and Midwest markets.TPH said the East Coast and Gulf Coast markets entered Q3 with the largest improvement in refining margins over the quarter.Meanwhile, global markets showed mixed signals. Northwest Europe gasoline margins climbed $3/bbl to $37/bbl, reaching the highest level in five years, while Singapore gasoline margins weakened by $5/bbl to $23/bbl amid softer regional demand and supply dynamics.TPH said forward refining margins also strengthened. The 2026 and 2027 6-3-2-1 crack spread futures curves improved by $2/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, reaching $19/bbl and $14/bbl, driven largely by gains in diesel markets.Crude oil differentials also improved during the week. TPH said Syncrude and Alaska North Slope crude each widened by $8/bbl over Brent, while other grades, including WTI, Mars, Maya, Western Canadian Select at Houston, Western Canadian Select premiums at Hardisty and Bakken also strengthened.WTI differentials improved by $1/bbl, while Mars and Maya gained $1/bbl each. Bakken widened by $2/bbl, the bank said.However, despite the recent rally, most refining stocks remain valued below their three-year forward consensus enterprise value-to-EBITDA averages.TPH said only Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are currently trading above their historical valuation benchmarks.Price: $70.20, Change: $+4.42, Percent Change: +6.72%

Jefferies Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $335 From $296, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $300 From $245, Maintains In Line Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

BMO Capital Adjusts PT on Marathon Petroleum to $320 From $290, Maintains Outperform Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $300 From $257, Maintains Neutral Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $290.25, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

Investors Favor Mid-Cap Refiners as Sector Fundamentals Strengthen, TPH Energy Says

Refining investors remain optimistic as stronger fuel margins, supportive market fundamentals and geopolitical developments continue to strengthen the sector, TPH Energy said in a Friday note.TPH Energy said investors showed the most interest in mid-cap refiners Delek US Holdings (DK), HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) attracted the most attention among large-cap companies.Investors focused on the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which boosted gasoline and diesel refining margins, while also watching Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, a recovery in Chinese refining activity and low fuel inventories, TPH Energy said.Market participants also examined regional refining trends, including weaker Midwest gasoline margins compared with the Gulf Coast during the summer, along with Western Canadian Select takeaway constraints, the note added.Investors also highlighted potential benefits from Small Refinery Exemptions for Delek US Holdings, Par Pacific Holdings and HF Sinclair, the note said.TPH Energy also expects Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy, HF Sinclair, Delek US Holdings and Par Pacific Holdings to generate enough cash in the first half to support significant shareholder returns in the second half of 2026.Price: $55.66, Change: $-0.43, Percent Change: -0.77%

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $321 From $280

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $280.06, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

Marathon Petroleum Reports Unplanned Flaring at California Refinery

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) reported an unplanned flaring on Tuesday at its Carson, California, refinery according to a South Coast Air Quality Management District alert.According to the filing, the reason of the event in under investigation. Unplanned flaring is an emergency response to an unexpected operational upset or equipment failure.The refinery has a capacity of 365,000 barrels per day.

US Refiners Poised to Beat Q3 Estimates on Strong Product Margins, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy Research expects US independent refiners to deliver stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings as gasoline and diesel margins remain robust, it said in a Tuesday note.TPH raised its average Q3 earnings per share estimate for the sector to $5.83 from $4.97, above the consensus forecast of $5.22 per share.TPH still expects earnings to remain below its Q2 estimate of $6.18 and the Street's $5.74.TPH said refining margins have started the third quarter strongly, supported by an unusual seasonal increase in US gasoline margins.TPH said its US gasoline margin indicator increased to $35 per barrel in Q3 from $28 per barrel in Q2, after adjusting for Renewable Volume Obligation costs and measuring against Brent crude.US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows and stand 6% below the five-year average, while gasoline yields have remained about 3 percentage points below normal over the past two weeks as refiners favored diesel production, the brokerage said.Diesel margins also improved, with TPH's US futures indicator increasing to $49/bbl in Q3 from $48/bbl in Q2 despite the US-Iran peace agreement.Low inventories, Russian refinery outages and a steeper global cost curve continued supporting diesel markets.TPH said crude differentials have narrowed against Brent for several grades, including WTI-Cushing, Syncrude, Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Western Canadian Select at Houston and Alaska North Slope, creating a modest headwind for refiners.Company-specific indicators also strengthened early in the quarter, with Valero Energy (VLO) up $7.86/bbl from the prior quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) up $5.71/bbl and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) up $4.08/bbl, according to TPH.The firm said lower crude backwardation, wider octane spreads and cheaper tanker rates should improve capture rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or constrained spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.However, weaker jet fuel margins relative to diesel, flat crude prices and a roughly $2/bbl increase in Renewable Volume Obligation costs will offset some of those gains.TPH expects Midwest ethanol margins to improve by about 3 cents per gallon from the Q2 on stronger co-product returns, while retail operations recover. Renewable diesel and polyethylene margins are expected to weaken.Analysts forecast the largest earnings upside versus consensus for Valero Energy, HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while maintaining estimates below consensus for PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Energy (CVI).TPH expects refiners to increase shareholder distributions in Q3 after limiting returns in Q2 because of market volatility.The firm forecasts an average total capital return yield of 9% in Q3, up from 5% in Q2, led by Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair and Delek US Holdings (DK).

US Refining Margins Weakened in June, Q2 Trends Remained Strong, TPH Says

US refining indicators declined across the major refiners in June as weaker gasoline and diesel margins and narrower crude differentials weighed on profitability, although second-quarter performance remained well above the prior quarter, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Thursday note.Among the large-cap refiners, Phillips 66 (PSX) posted the greatest quarterly improvement. Its refining indicator slipped to $26.23 per barrel in June from $29.45 in May, but still finished the second quarter up $17.22/bbl from the first quarter. The company benefited from a sharp decline in crude prices late in the month, which supported its Central Corridor operations, while Gulf Coast margins were aided by a lag in refined product pricing. West Coast performance also exceeded expectations.Valero Energy's (VLO) refining indicator fell to $27.58/bbl in June from $33.70 in May as refining economics weakened across all regions, particularly on the West Coast. Despite the monthly decline, the indicator increased by $12.23/bbl quarter over quarter. The company also saw stronger economics for ethanol and renewable diesel during the quarter, supported by lower corn and feedstock costs and stronger renewable fuel credits.Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) refining and marketing indicator dropped to $27.50/bbl in June from $35.88 in May, with the sharpest deterioration in the Mid-Continent region, followed by the West Coast and Gulf Coast. Wider sweet crude differentials and improved market structure partially offset the weakness.Even so, Marathon's indicator finished the second quarter up $14.21/bbl from the first quarter.Overall, June marked a pullback from May's stronger refining environment, but second-quarter indicators remained significantly higher than first-quarter levels across the sector.Price: $177.09, Change: $+2.59, Percent Change: +1.48%

US Refining Capacity Falls in 2025 After Major Plant Closures, EIA Says

US refinery capacity fell in 2025 as the permanent closure of two major plants outweighed marginal efficiency gains across the industry, Energy Information Administration strategists said in a note on Monday.EIA analysts said operable atmospheric distillation capacity totaled 18.2 million barrels per calendar day as of Jan. 1. The figure represents a decline of more than 250,000 b/cd, or about 1%, compared with the same period a year earlier, the analysts said.The contraction leaves the US with 130 operable refineries, two fewer than in 2025.The EIA said the decline was driven by the shutdown of two refineries in 2025, including a 263,776-b/d facility in Houston operated by LyondellBasell (LYB) and a 138,700-b/d refinery in Los Angeles owned by Phillips 66 (PSX).Combined, the two closures removed about 400,000 b/d of capacity from the market.However, the agency said incremental capacity expansions and process improvements at existing refineries partially offset the reduction. The EIA identified 130 operable refineries in the US as of Jan. 1, down from 132 a year earlier.The closure of the Phillips 66 Los Angeles facility represented a 5% reduction in refining capacity on the US West Coast, within the Petroleum Administration for Defense District 5.The EIA said that while Valero Energy's (VLO) 145,000-b/d Benicia refinery in California remained operational as of Jan. 1, the facility has since ceased refining operations and was removed from the agency's monthly capacity estimates beginning in March 2026.The closure of the LyondellBasell refinery, by contrast, represented a smaller proportional impact on the US Gulf Coast refining system, accounting for about 3% of capacity in PADD 3, where refining output exceeds regional fuel demand.Overall Gulf Coast refining capacity declined by less than 2% in 2025 after accounting for capacity additions elsewhere in the region, the EIA said.The agency said that the three largest US refiners, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy and Exxon Mobil (XOM), each reported calendar-day capacity increases of less than 1% compared with 2025, reflecting what it described as small-scale operational improvements rather than major expansion projects.Phillips 66 recorded an overall decline in capacity following the closure of its Los Angeles facility.Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX) overtook PBF Energy (PBF) to become the fifth-largest US refiner after posting modest capacity gains.Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur refinery in Texas retained its position as the largest US refinery by calendar-day capacity at 656,000 b/d, while Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery remained the country's largest on a stream-day basis, with a capacity of 678,000 barrels per stream day.Price: $177.06, Change: $+5.41, Percent Change: +3.15%

TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on Marathon Petroleum to $315 From $320, Maintains Buy Rating

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $276.62, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

US Refining Indicators Weaken in June as Crack Spreads Soften, Q2 Gains Hold, TPH Energy Says

US refining margins have softened heading into the end of the second quarter, pressured by falling gasoline and diesel cracks following progress on a peace deal between the US and Iran, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.TPH analysts said company-specific refining indicators are trading down by $5 to $11 per barrel month-to-date in June, reflecting a broader cooling in energy markets.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that while the geopolitical developments have weighed on product cracks, the impact across the sector has been uneven.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has demonstrated the most resilience among the group, with its refining indicator down $4.94 per barrel month-to-date.TPH said that the Singapore market, a key benchmark, has declined slightly and remains well above its five-year average, while falling crude prices have provided a tailwind for asphalt indicators.The bank said that large-cap refiners show a more mixed picture. Phillips 66 (PSX) is down $7.36/bbl month-on-month but is seen benefiting from potential derivative gains linked to falling crude prices.Valero Energy (VLO) has declined by $7.50/bbl, with strength in Gulf Coast diesel partially offsetting the narrowing of crude differentials.HF Sinclair (DINO) is down $8.03/bbl amid weakness in West Coast and Rockies cracks, though improved Southwest markets partly cushion the impact.Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shows the steepest monthly decline at $10.85/bbl, driven by softness in Midcontinent refining margins.However, despite the monthly weakness, TPH still expects strong quarter-to-date performance across the sector.Phillips 66 leads gains at $15.84/bbl, followed by Par Pacific at $15.03/bbl, Marathon Petroleum at $13.39/bbl, Valero Energy at $11.77/bbl, and HF Sinclair at $11.13/bbl.Price: $50.94, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.22%

Market Chatter: BP, Marathon, Walmart Sued for Alleged AI Gas Price Fixing

BP (BP), Marathon Petroleum (MPC), and Walmart (WMT) were sued, among others, by California drivers for allegedly using artificial intelligence to inflate fuel prices, Reuters reported Tuesday, citing a proposed class action lawsuit.The lawsuit claims the gas station operators violated state antitrust and algorithmic price-fixing laws by using a software tool from Kalibrate to coordinate the higher pricing, Reuters said.Drivers alleged that fuel costs increased by up to $0.30 per gallon in regions where a high percentage of stations adopted the technology, according to the report.BP, Marathon Petroleum, Walmart, and Kalibrate did not immediately respond to' requests for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)