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Commodities

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

$CVI$DINO$DK$PARR$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Retail Fuel Margin Indicator Falls to Lowest Level Since 2021, TPH Says

Higher crude oil and refining costs pushed TPH Energy's US retail margin indicator down 11 cents per gallon in May, even as gasoline prices continued to climb, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Pump prices increased 38 cents per gallon from April to $4.48 per gallon, the highest monthly average since July 2022, but higher refining margins and crude costs more than offset the increase, TPH said.Refining margins rose 33 cents per gallon during the month, while crude costs increased 13 cents per gallon as the Iran conflict and seasonal trends lifted fuel input costs, according to the note.The retail margin indicator fell 11 cents per gallon from the first quarter and reached its lowest level since the first quarter of 2021, TPH said.The PADD 4 retail margin indicator increased 11 cents per gallon from the prior quarter as retail fuel prices in the region climbed $1.29 per gallon.The PADD 2 retail margin indicator declined 17 cents per gallon from the prior quarter, while the PADD 1 indicator fell 15 cents per gallon and the PADD 5 indicator decreased 5 cents per gallon, according to the note.Among companies covered by TPH, Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has the greatest exposure to retail fuel margins through its service station operations in Hawaii and Washington, the report said.The trend could also affect wholesale fuel marketing activities at Phillips 66 (PSX) and HF Sinclair (DINO), according to TPH.

$DINO$PARR$PSX
Research

Mizuho Securities Upgrades Par Pacific to Outperform From Neutral, Lifts Price Target to $79 From $58

Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Closes $500 Million Private Placement of 7.375% Senior Notes

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) said Thursday its Par Petroleum subsidiary closed a private placement of $500 million of 7.375% senior unsecured notes due 2034.The company used the net proceeds, along with cash on hand and borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility, to repay all outstanding borrowings and terminate Par Petroleum's term loan due 2030.Par Pacific also increased lender commitments under its senior secured asset-based revolving credit facility to up to $1.8 billion and extended the facility's maturity to 2031.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Prices $500 Million Private Debt Offering

Par Pacific's (PARR) Par Petroleum subsidiary priced a $500 million privately-placed offering of 7.375% senior unsecured notes at face value, the parent company said late Monday.Net proceedings from the offering, expected to close on Thursday, are expected to be used to pay down other debt, the company said.Shares of the company were up 1.1% in Tuesday's premarket trading.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Plans $500 Million Private Placement of Senior Notes

Par Pacific (PARR) said Monday its Par Petroleum unit plans to offer $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 in a private placement.The company said Par Pacific and certain subsidiaries are expected to guarantee the notes on a senior unsecured basis.Par Pacific said it plans to use the net proceeds from the offering, along with cash on hand or borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility, to repay and terminate Par Petroleum's term loan due 2030.PARR shares were up 2% in early trading Monday.Price: $65.06, Change: $+0.69, Percent Change: +1.06%

$PARR
Commodities

Par Pacific Refinery Throughput, Sales Rises 4.7% YoY in Q1

Par Pacific (PARR) refineries processed 184,300 barrels per day of feedstocks in Q1, up from 176,000 bpd in Q1 2025, it said in its earnings statement on Tuesday.Refined product sales volumes also increased, reaching 188,800 bpd, up from 184,600 bpd in Q1 last year, the statement said.Adjusted gross margins per barrel rose significantly, to $11.16 up from $6.59 a year prior while production costs eased to $6.93 per barrel, down from $7.41 in Q1, 2025.About half the company's oil refining took place at its Hawaii facility with 89,800 barrels processed during the quarter, up from 79,400 barrels a year prior.The Montana refinery handled most of the remainder, processing 56,900 barrels up from 51,700 in Q1, 2025. The company's other two refineries are in Washington and Wyoming.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Q1 Swings to Profit, Revenue Rises

Par Pacific (PARR) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of $0.78 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $0.94 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of $0.99.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $1.82 billion, up from $1.75 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.78 billion.Par Pacific's shares were down more than 7% in after-hours trading.

$PARR
Oil & Energy

Refiners Surge 53% as Iran Conflict Boosts Margins, TPH Energy Says

Refining stocks surged 53% in Q1 2026 as fuel margins spiked, though earnings lagged expectations with average earnings per share seen at $0.19, TPH Energy Research said Thursday.The quarter was marked by sharp volatility as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply, pushing refining margins higher despite operational and cost-related headwinds, the report said.Global refining activity dropped to about 80 million barrels per day in March from 86 million b/d in January, reflecting Middle East disruptions and feedstock shortages in Asia, TPH added.Fuel margins surged in response, with US gasoline and diesel cracks jumping to $13 per barrel and $46/bbl in March from $6/bbl and $22/bbl earlier in the quarter, the report added.However, average gasoline margins remained weak at $9/bbl for Q1, pressured by strong US refinery utilization of about 91.5%, which kept supply elevated, according to TPH.Diesel margins performed better, averaging $30/bbl, supported by stronger demand running about 1% above five-year average levels and supply disruptions linked to Iran.The Singapore market saw sharper gains, with gasoline and diesel cracks rising to $16/bbl and $41/bbl, up about $3/bbl and $18/bbl over the quarter, according to TPH.Additional tailwinds included wider heavy crude differentials, tighter West Coast supply following refinery closures, and regulatory benefits for smaller refiners.Despite strong margins, earnings disappointed due to weak capture rates of about 66%, as higher crude prices and derivative losses weighed on profitability, TPH added.Other pressures included lower returns on residual products such as asphalt and increased compliance costs tied to renewable fuel obligations, the report added.These headwinds offset benefits from improved crude sourcing and stronger jet fuel spreads, leaving analysts below consensus for several major refiners.Looking ahead, Q2 profitability is expected to improve significantly, supported by stronger margins with gasoline and diesel indicators near $9 and $47 per barrel, it said.TPH forecasts average Q2 earnings per share at $4.66, above consensus of $3.93, with stronger performance expected across all covered refiners, it said.TPH said it is particularly bullish on Phillips 66, Valero (VLO) and Par Pacific (PARR), citing improving fundamentals despite continued caution around margin capture and cost pressures.Price: $241.76, Change: $+6.76, Percent Change: +2.88%

$PARR$VLO