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Oil & Energy

Refining Stocks Slip as Crude Rally Pressures Sector Despite Strong Fuel Margins, TPH Says

Refining stocks gave back recent gains after crude oil jumped about $13 per barrel on renewed Middle East tensions, ahead of Q2 earnings this week, according to TPH Energy Research in a Monday note.Refining shares fell 1.1% last week, compared with a 0.6% decline for the S&P 500. Par Pacific (PARR) gained 1.5% to lead the group, while CVR Energy (CVI) dropped 4.8%, the steepest decline, according to TPH strategist Matthew Blair.Singapore gasoline and diesel cracks each climbed $11/bbl, supporting Par Pacific. In the US, gasoline cracks fell by $3 to $38/bbl, while diesel cracks rose $1 to $66/bbl, with both holding five-year highs.The US West Coast posted the only weekly regional improvement as stronger gasoline and diesel margins supported refining economics.Northwest Europe margins weakened as gasoline cracks fell $9/bbl and diesel cracks dropped $3/bbl after the dated Brent premium over front-month Brent widened.Crude price spreads also widened sharply. Brent's premium over Western Canadian Select at Hardisty increased $5 to $25/bbl, while the Brent-Alaska North Slope spread widened $4 to $13/bbl.The note also highlighted several market developments, including China's June 2026 crude imports falling to a near-decade low, Russia considering a longer gasoline and diesel export ban, low Rhine River water levels and HF Sinclair (DINO) suing the Environmental Protection Agency over delayed small refinery exemption decisions.Q2 earnings season starts this week with results from HF Sinclair, PBF Energy (PBF), Valero Energy (VLO) and CVR Energy (CVI).Price: $77.86, Change: $+0.47, Percent Change: +0.61%

$CVI$DINO$PARR$PBF$VLO
Commodities

Refining Boom Returns as Geopolitical Tensions Push Fuel Profits to Multi-Year Highs, TPH Says

US refiners are on track to report one of their strongest quarters in years as geopolitical disruptions drove fuel margins sharply higher, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a note on Wednesday.Average Q2 2026 earnings per share are projected at $6.53, above the consensus estimate of $6.20 and up from $0.59 in Q1.Blair said the quarter is shaping up to be the industry's most profitable since market disruptions following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.Global refining runs fell to an estimated 78 million barrels per day in Q2 from 83 million b/d in Q1, reflecting the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and increased Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian refineries.Tighter supply pushed US gasoline crack spreads to an average of $25/bbl in the quarter, up from $9/bbl in Q1 and $16/bbl a year earlier.Diesel crack spreads climbed to $45/bbl from $30/bbl in the previous quarter and $17/bbl a year earlier. Margins improved across most US refining regions, with the Southwest and Gulf Coast posting the largest gains over the year. Jet fuel and naphtha margins also strengthened.In Asia, Singapore gasoline and diesel crack spreads rose to $33/bbl and $69/bbl, respectively, from $16/bbl and $41/bbl in Q1. Singapore diesel margins reached five-year highs during much of the quarter.Higher fuel margins were partly offset by tighter crude price differentials, steeper backwardation and higher tanker rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or tight spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.Marathon Petroleum (MPC), PBF Energy (PBF) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are expected to post the largest earnings beats versus consensus, while CVR Energy (CVI) and Delek US Holdings (DK) may underperform expectations.The third quarter has also started strongly, with gasoline and diesel margins rising further amid renewed US-Iran tensions and continued constraints on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Blair forecasts average third-quarter earnings per share of $5.91, roughly in line with the consensus estimate of $5.94.Price: $296.79, Change: $-6.61, Percent Change: -2.18%

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PBF$PSX$VLO
Oil & Energy

Refiners Start Q3 Strong with Better Fuel Margins, Tight Inventories, TPH Says

US refiners have begun the third quarter on a strong footing, with refining margins improving across most companies as low fuel inventories and renewed tensions between the US and Iran support market conditions, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.Blair said company-specific refining indicators are off to a "fantastic start" about halfway through the first month of the quarter, with most refiners benefiting from stronger product cracks and favorable crude market dynamics.Among the large-cap refiners, Valero Energy (VLO) is showing the biggest improvement over the quarter, with TPH estimating refining margins have increased by about $9.15 per barrel.Blair attributed the gains to the company's significant exposure to the North Atlantic and US Gulf Coast, where refining economics have strengthened the most since the Q2.Valero is also benefiting from wider Gulf Coast crude differentials, including ASCI and Maya grades.Phillips 66 (PSX) is estimated to be up about $6.70/bbl over the quarter, supported by similar regional exposure. However, Blair said the company's performance has been somewhat constrained by higher crude prices and weaker Gulf Coast product trends.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is estimated to have improved by roughly $5.95/bbl from the prior quarter. While product margins in the Chicago region have not strengthened as much as elsewhere, Blair said that has been partially offset by a more favorable structure in the WTI crude market.Among small- and mid-cap refiners, Delek US Holdings (DK) stands out as the strongest performer, with TPH estimating a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about $13.60/bbl.Blair cited the company's Gulf Coast product exposure, wider Midland crude differentials and improved WTI market structure as key drivers.CVR Energy (CVI) is also seeing a substantial improvement, with estimated margins up about $9.85/bbl before accounting for renewable volume obligation costs, or about $7.34/bbl after those costs.HF Sinclair (DINO) is estimated to be up about $2.80/bbl, benefiting from stronger Group 3 gasoline cracks, although Blair noted that the company's exposure to the Rockies and Southwest has moderated from exceptionally strong Q2 levels.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is the only refiner in TPH's coverage expected to post a quarter-over-quarter decline, with estimated margins down about $2/bbl.Blair attributed the weakness primarily to Singapore refining margins retreating from record Q2 levels, along with TPH's expectation of more challenging Hawaiian crude differentials during Q3.Price: $297.50, Change: $+1.71, Percent Change: +0.58%

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Commodities

Refiners Rally as Renewed US-Iran Fighting Lifts Fuel Margins, TPH Says

US refining equities surged last week, outpacing the broader market as renewed fighting between the US and Iran stoked concerns over energy supplies, driving a sharp climb in gasoline and diesel cracks, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note Monday.TPH analysts said refining equities jumped 8% last week, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which gained 1.2%.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said higher-beta refiners led the advance, with Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares rising 12.5%, PBF Energy (PBF) gaining 11.2%, and CVR Energy (CVI) climbing 8.7%.Blair said that the rally came as renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked concerns over potential disruptions to crude and refined product flows, pushing gasoline and diesel margins higher.US gasoline cracks rose by about $3 per barrel last week to $40/bbl, with the West Coast and Rockies regions posting the strongest gains.Diesel margins climbed even more sharply, surging $10/bbl to $53/bbl, buoyed by stronger pricing across the West Coast, Rockies, Gulf Coast and Midwest markets.TPH said the East Coast and Gulf Coast markets entered Q3 with the largest improvement in refining margins over the quarter.Meanwhile, global markets showed mixed signals. Northwest Europe gasoline margins climbed $3/bbl to $37/bbl, reaching the highest level in five years, while Singapore gasoline margins weakened by $5/bbl to $23/bbl amid softer regional demand and supply dynamics.TPH said forward refining margins also strengthened. The 2026 and 2027 6-3-2-1 crack spread futures curves improved by $2/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, reaching $19/bbl and $14/bbl, driven largely by gains in diesel markets.Crude oil differentials also improved during the week. TPH said Syncrude and Alaska North Slope crude each widened by $8/bbl over Brent, while other grades, including WTI, Mars, Maya, Western Canadian Select at Houston, Western Canadian Select premiums at Hardisty and Bakken also strengthened.WTI differentials improved by $1/bbl, while Mars and Maya gained $1/bbl each. Bakken widened by $2/bbl, the bank said.However, despite the recent rally, most refining stocks remain valued below their three-year forward consensus enterprise value-to-EBITDA averages.TPH said only Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are currently trading above their historical valuation benchmarks.Price: $70.20, Change: $+4.42, Percent Change: +6.72%

$CVI$MPC$PARR$PBF$VLO
Commodities

Investors Favor Mid-Cap Refiners as Sector Fundamentals Strengthen, TPH Energy Says

Refining investors remain optimistic as stronger fuel margins, supportive market fundamentals and geopolitical developments continue to strengthen the sector, TPH Energy said in a Friday note.TPH Energy said investors showed the most interest in mid-cap refiners Delek US Holdings (DK), HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) attracted the most attention among large-cap companies.Investors focused on the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which boosted gasoline and diesel refining margins, while also watching Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, a recovery in Chinese refining activity and low fuel inventories, TPH Energy said.Market participants also examined regional refining trends, including weaker Midwest gasoline margins compared with the Gulf Coast during the summer, along with Western Canadian Select takeaway constraints, the note added.Investors also highlighted potential benefits from Small Refinery Exemptions for Delek US Holdings, Par Pacific Holdings and HF Sinclair, the note said.TPH Energy also expects Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy, HF Sinclair, Delek US Holdings and Par Pacific Holdings to generate enough cash in the first half to support significant shareholder returns in the second half of 2026.Price: $55.66, Change: $-0.43, Percent Change: -0.77%

$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Wire

UBS Adjusts Price Target on Par Pacific Holdings to $65 From $60, Maintains Neutral Rating

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has an average rating of buy and mean price target of $76.86, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $66.94, Change: $+5.48, Percent Change: +8.91%

$PARR
Commodities

US Refiners Poised to Beat Q3 Estimates on Strong Product Margins, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy Research expects US independent refiners to deliver stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings as gasoline and diesel margins remain robust, it said in a Tuesday note.TPH raised its average Q3 earnings per share estimate for the sector to $5.83 from $4.97, above the consensus forecast of $5.22 per share.TPH still expects earnings to remain below its Q2 estimate of $6.18 and the Street's $5.74.TPH said refining margins have started the third quarter strongly, supported by an unusual seasonal increase in US gasoline margins.TPH said its US gasoline margin indicator increased to $35 per barrel in Q3 from $28 per barrel in Q2, after adjusting for Renewable Volume Obligation costs and measuring against Brent crude.US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows and stand 6% below the five-year average, while gasoline yields have remained about 3 percentage points below normal over the past two weeks as refiners favored diesel production, the brokerage said.Diesel margins also improved, with TPH's US futures indicator increasing to $49/bbl in Q3 from $48/bbl in Q2 despite the US-Iran peace agreement.Low inventories, Russian refinery outages and a steeper global cost curve continued supporting diesel markets.TPH said crude differentials have narrowed against Brent for several grades, including WTI-Cushing, Syncrude, Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Western Canadian Select at Houston and Alaska North Slope, creating a modest headwind for refiners.Company-specific indicators also strengthened early in the quarter, with Valero Energy (VLO) up $7.86/bbl from the prior quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) up $5.71/bbl and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) up $4.08/bbl, according to TPH.The firm said lower crude backwardation, wider octane spreads and cheaper tanker rates should improve capture rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or constrained spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.However, weaker jet fuel margins relative to diesel, flat crude prices and a roughly $2/bbl increase in Renewable Volume Obligation costs will offset some of those gains.TPH expects Midwest ethanol margins to improve by about 3 cents per gallon from the Q2 on stronger co-product returns, while retail operations recover. Renewable diesel and polyethylene margins are expected to weaken.Analysts forecast the largest earnings upside versus consensus for Valero Energy, HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while maintaining estimates below consensus for PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Energy (CVI).TPH expects refiners to increase shareholder distributions in Q3 after limiting returns in Q2 because of market volatility.The firm forecasts an average total capital return yield of 9% in Q3, up from 5% in Q2, led by Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair and Delek US Holdings (DK).

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PBF$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Retail Fuel Margins Drop 5 Cents in Q2 Despite June Rebound, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy's US retail fuel margin indicator fell 5 cents per gallon over the quarter to 39 cents/gal in Q2 2026, the weakest level in four years, the firm said in a Wednesday note.The indicator recovered to 47 cents/gal in June from 29 cents/gal in May as crude prices eased. However, the quarterly average remained lower because pump prices failed to keep pace with higher crude costs and refining margins, TPH said.Retail gasoline prices increased $1.04/gal over the quarter, while crude costs rose 49 cents/gal and refining margins expanded 69 cents/gal, pressuring overall retail margins, the firm said.Regional trends diverged during the quarter, with TPH's PADD 4 and PADD 5 indicators rising 13 cents/gal and 9 cents/gal, respectively. However, PADD 3 margins fell 6 cents/gal, while PADD 1 and PADD 2 declined 12 cents/gal and 13 cents/gal, the firm said.TPH said Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has the greatest exposure to retail margin trends in its coverage because of its PADD 5 operations, including fuel stations in Hawaii and Washington, where stronger regional margins could provide support.The firm added that retail margin trends can also influence wholesale operations at refiners, including Phillips 66 (PSX) and HF Sinclair (DINO).Price: $57.47, Change: $+1.39, Percent Change: +2.48%

$DINO$PARR$PSX
Oil & Energy

US Refining Indicators Weaken in June as Crack Spreads Soften, Q2 Gains Hold, TPH Energy Says

US refining margins have softened heading into the end of the second quarter, pressured by falling gasoline and diesel cracks following progress on a peace deal between the US and Iran, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.TPH analysts said company-specific refining indicators are trading down by $5 to $11 per barrel month-to-date in June, reflecting a broader cooling in energy markets.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that while the geopolitical developments have weighed on product cracks, the impact across the sector has been uneven.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has demonstrated the most resilience among the group, with its refining indicator down $4.94 per barrel month-to-date.TPH said that the Singapore market, a key benchmark, has declined slightly and remains well above its five-year average, while falling crude prices have provided a tailwind for asphalt indicators.The bank said that large-cap refiners show a more mixed picture. Phillips 66 (PSX) is down $7.36/bbl month-on-month but is seen benefiting from potential derivative gains linked to falling crude prices.Valero Energy (VLO) has declined by $7.50/bbl, with strength in Gulf Coast diesel partially offsetting the narrowing of crude differentials.HF Sinclair (DINO) is down $8.03/bbl amid weakness in West Coast and Rockies cracks, though improved Southwest markets partly cushion the impact.Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shows the steepest monthly decline at $10.85/bbl, driven by softness in Midcontinent refining margins.However, despite the monthly weakness, TPH still expects strong quarter-to-date performance across the sector.Phillips 66 leads gains at $15.84/bbl, followed by Par Pacific at $15.03/bbl, Marathon Petroleum at $13.39/bbl, Valero Energy at $11.77/bbl, and HF Sinclair at $11.13/bbl.Price: $50.94, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.22%

$DINO$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Commodities

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

$CVI$DINO$DK$PARR$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Retail Fuel Margin Indicator Falls to Lowest Level Since 2021, TPH Says

Higher crude oil and refining costs pushed TPH Energy's US retail margin indicator down 11 cents per gallon in May, even as gasoline prices continued to climb, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.Pump prices increased 38 cents per gallon from April to $4.48 per gallon, the highest monthly average since July 2022, but higher refining margins and crude costs more than offset the increase, TPH said.Refining margins rose 33 cents per gallon during the month, while crude costs increased 13 cents per gallon as the Iran conflict and seasonal trends lifted fuel input costs, according to the note.The retail margin indicator fell 11 cents per gallon from the first quarter and reached its lowest level since the first quarter of 2021, TPH said.The PADD 4 retail margin indicator increased 11 cents per gallon from the prior quarter as retail fuel prices in the region climbed $1.29 per gallon.The PADD 2 retail margin indicator declined 17 cents per gallon from the prior quarter, while the PADD 1 indicator fell 15 cents per gallon and the PADD 5 indicator decreased 5 cents per gallon, according to the note.Among companies covered by TPH, Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has the greatest exposure to retail fuel margins through its service station operations in Hawaii and Washington, the report said.The trend could also affect wholesale fuel marketing activities at Phillips 66 (PSX) and HF Sinclair (DINO), according to TPH.

$DINO$PARR$PSX
Research

Mizuho Securities Upgrades Par Pacific to Outperform From Neutral, Lifts Price Target to $79 From $58

Par Pacific Holdings Inc (PARR) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $72, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://finwires.com/en/contact)

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Closes $500 Million Private Placement of 7.375% Senior Notes

Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) said Thursday its Par Petroleum subsidiary closed a private placement of $500 million of 7.375% senior unsecured notes due 2034.The company used the net proceeds, along with cash on hand and borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility, to repay all outstanding borrowings and terminate Par Petroleum's term loan due 2030.Par Pacific also increased lender commitments under its senior secured asset-based revolving credit facility to up to $1.8 billion and extended the facility's maturity to 2031.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Prices $500 Million Private Debt Offering

Par Pacific's (PARR) Par Petroleum subsidiary priced a $500 million privately-placed offering of 7.375% senior unsecured notes at face value, the parent company said late Monday.Net proceedings from the offering, expected to close on Thursday, are expected to be used to pay down other debt, the company said.Shares of the company were up 1.1% in Tuesday's premarket trading.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Unit Plans $500 Million Private Placement of Senior Notes

Par Pacific (PARR) said Monday its Par Petroleum unit plans to offer $500 million of senior unsecured notes due 2034 in a private placement.The company said Par Pacific and certain subsidiaries are expected to guarantee the notes on a senior unsecured basis.Par Pacific said it plans to use the net proceeds from the offering, along with cash on hand or borrowings under its asset-based revolving credit facility, to repay and terminate Par Petroleum's term loan due 2030.PARR shares were up 2% in early trading Monday.Price: $65.06, Change: $+0.69, Percent Change: +1.06%

$PARR
Commodities

Par Pacific Refinery Throughput, Sales Rises 4.7% YoY in Q1

Par Pacific (PARR) refineries processed 184,300 barrels per day of feedstocks in Q1, up from 176,000 bpd in Q1 2025, it said in its earnings statement on Tuesday.Refined product sales volumes also increased, reaching 188,800 bpd, up from 184,600 bpd in Q1 last year, the statement said.Adjusted gross margins per barrel rose significantly, to $11.16 up from $6.59 a year prior while production costs eased to $6.93 per barrel, down from $7.41 in Q1, 2025.About half the company's oil refining took place at its Hawaii facility with 89,800 barrels processed during the quarter, up from 79,400 barrels a year prior.The Montana refinery handled most of the remainder, processing 56,900 barrels up from 51,700 in Q1, 2025. The company's other two refineries are in Washington and Wyoming.

$PARR
Equities

Par Pacific Q1 Swings to Profit, Revenue Rises

Par Pacific (PARR) reported Q1 adjusted earnings late Tuesday of $0.78 per diluted share, swinging from a loss of $0.94 a year earlier.Analysts polled by FactSet expected earnings of $0.99.Revenue for the quarter ended March 31 was $1.82 billion, up from $1.75 billion a year earlier.Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected $1.78 billion.Par Pacific's shares were down more than 7% in after-hours trading.

$PARR
Oil & Energy

Refiners Surge 53% as Iran Conflict Boosts Margins, TPH Energy Says

Refining stocks surged 53% in Q1 2026 as fuel margins spiked, though earnings lagged expectations with average earnings per share seen at $0.19, TPH Energy Research said Thursday.The quarter was marked by sharp volatility as the Iran conflict disrupted global supply, pushing refining margins higher despite operational and cost-related headwinds, the report said.Global refining activity dropped to about 80 million barrels per day in March from 86 million b/d in January, reflecting Middle East disruptions and feedstock shortages in Asia, TPH added.Fuel margins surged in response, with US gasoline and diesel cracks jumping to $13 per barrel and $46/bbl in March from $6/bbl and $22/bbl earlier in the quarter, the report added.However, average gasoline margins remained weak at $9/bbl for Q1, pressured by strong US refinery utilization of about 91.5%, which kept supply elevated, according to TPH.Diesel margins performed better, averaging $30/bbl, supported by stronger demand running about 1% above five-year average levels and supply disruptions linked to Iran.The Singapore market saw sharper gains, with gasoline and diesel cracks rising to $16/bbl and $41/bbl, up about $3/bbl and $18/bbl over the quarter, according to TPH.Additional tailwinds included wider heavy crude differentials, tighter West Coast supply following refinery closures, and regulatory benefits for smaller refiners.Despite strong margins, earnings disappointed due to weak capture rates of about 66%, as higher crude prices and derivative losses weighed on profitability, TPH added.Other pressures included lower returns on residual products such as asphalt and increased compliance costs tied to renewable fuel obligations, the report added.These headwinds offset benefits from improved crude sourcing and stronger jet fuel spreads, leaving analysts below consensus for several major refiners.Looking ahead, Q2 profitability is expected to improve significantly, supported by stronger margins with gasoline and diesel indicators near $9 and $47 per barrel, it said.TPH forecasts average Q2 earnings per share at $4.66, above consensus of $3.93, with stronger performance expected across all covered refiners, it said.TPH said it is particularly bullish on Phillips 66, Valero (VLO) and Par Pacific (PARR), citing improving fundamentals despite continued caution around margin capture and cost pressures.Price: $241.76, Change: $+6.76, Percent Change: +2.88%

$PARR$VLO

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