Middle Eastern oil supply could return faster than expected as tanker movements improve and producers prepare to restore output, Kpler said in a Monday note.
Recent Israeli strikes have delayed the formal signing of a memorandum of understanding between the US and Iran, while renewed attacks in southern Lebanon added fresh uncertainty to negotiations, according to Kpler.
Switzerland's Foreign Ministry said US-Iran talks had been postponed. At the same time, reports indicated the US lifted its naval blockade on Iranian shipping, creating conditions for a gradual recovery in exports.
Cargo-tracking data showed more Iranian-linked tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz with AIS active. A few very large crude carriers reappeared on tracking systems after extended periods of limited visibility.
Kpler estimates that over 10 million barrels per day of Middle Eastern crude and condensate production remained offline as of June 19, resulting in cumulative losses exceeding 1.2 billion barrels.
Kuwait may restore production faster than expected after Kuwait Petroleum said it aims to increase output by 2 million b/d within one week.
Kpler estimates Kuwaiti production could rise from about 950,000 b/d in June to 2 million b/d in July and nearly 2.4 million b/d in August, compared with pre-war output of 2.74 million b/d.
Kpler said limited storage, with inventories near 50% capacity, and the availability of tanker vessels could support a quicker recovery in Kuwaiti exports, although prolonged restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz could slow the pace.
Iran could also recover output rapidly if export restrictions continue to ease. Kpler estimates that Iranian crude production fell by as much as 1.3 million b/d during the blockade, largely because exports stopped rather than because oil fields were damaged.
The firm expects Iran's crude production to reach 3.4 million b/d by August, exceeding pre-conflict levels of 3.2 million b/d to 3.3 million b/d. Kpler said Iran's export system can recover more quickly than many neighboring producers once shipping routes normalize.
Saudi Arabia and the UAE could return to pre-conflict production levels within several weeks to two months. Saudi inventories remain about 55% full, while UAE inventories stand near 44%, allowing both countries to support exports while tanker traffic recovers.
Kpler expects Middle Eastern crude and condensate outages to fall to roughly 1.2 million b/d by the end of August. The firm forecasts Saudi Arabia and the UAE will return to pre-war production levels by August, while Iraq and Kuwait should recover by November.