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Canada's Vulnerability Stands Out Among Trade Partners Amid U.S. Tariffs, Says RBC

Despite the unprecedented scope of the United States tariffs, major economies weathered the trade shock in 2025, but with significant distributional shifts under the surface, said RBC.U.S. imports reoriented rapidly away from higher-tariffed regions like China, but still rose overall in 2025 as American consumers, businesses, and governments continued to spend, noted the bank. Almost 90% of global trade that doesn't involve the U.S. continued to grow.Distributional impact has been concentrated, stated RBC. Headline gross domestic product in Canada held up better than feared, while specific sectors -- steel exports were down 30%, motor vehicles, aluminum -- and regions, such as Ontario and Quebec with an over 6% effective tariff rates, have been hard hit.Canada's heavily integrated cross-border supply chains are a challenge that most offshore U.S. trade partners don't face, pointed out the bank. Canada's share of the U.S. import market declined in 2025 despite almost 90% of exports remaining tariff-free.The world can absorb U.S. trade shocks, while Canada cannot as easily, according to RBC. The year marked global resilience to trade policy uncertainty, and the U.S. share of Canada's exports declined. But, it is still high at 71.6%, leaving Canada fundamentally more exposed than most other trade partners.

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Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries weaken in late New York session, turn sideways in Asia. E-minis little changed, Asian equities mixed. The US dollar (USD) trades stronger. The euro (EUR) at US$1.167. Brent recovers to $97/barrel.Fed: Minutes show that the vast majority thought inflation progress could be slower, while it viewed employment risks as skewed to the downside. "Many" said higher-for-longer inflation could call for hikes, while "most" judged protracted Iran war could hit job market and warrant cuts and "some" saw "strong case" for two-sided language on rate path.Fed: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly calls the economy "remarkably resilient," says it's too early to know the economic consequences of the Iran war.Fed economist Chris Phelan is said to be the front-runner for President Donald Trump's economic adviser role (Politico sources).Iran plans to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and to charge tolls (WSJ). White House reiterates it wants no limitations at Hormuz, including tolls, says Lebanon isn't part of the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance says there won't be any sanctions relief if Iran develops nuclear weapons, sees signs that Hormuz is starting to reopen, Israel offered to restrain strikes during talks.Iran: Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says ceasefire deal with the U.S. was violated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it's preparing "heavy" response to attack on Lebanon (Mehr). Iran designates routes for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz (Nour).Iran/Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says this isn't the war's end. He insisted that the ceasefire wouldn't include Hezbollah.NATO: President Trump says NATO "won't be there if we need them again." Trump weighs punishing certain countries over Iran support, including moving troops out of some states and potential closure of at least one base (WSJ sources). NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says his meeting with Trump was a discussion among "good friends."Venezuela: The U.S. weighs lifting central bank sanctions to unlock oil.==EUROPE:EU: European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis says the European Union will be hit by "stagflationary shock" (FT).France: Budget Minister David Amiel says the government is sticking to the 2026 deficit target of 5%, could beat it depending on the economy.

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FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIKLSE:MNC

Malaysian Shares Ended Lower, Mirroring Regional Losses; M N C Wireless' Shares Plunge 23%

Malaysian shares closed lower on Thursday, reversing yesterday's gains, mirroring regional losses.Investors turned cautious after Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to keep US forces deployed around Iran until a "real agreement" is secured, ahead of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI shed 10.07 points to shed 0.6% lower at 1,686.24. The day range was between 1,680.01 and 1,692.65.In economic news, the World Bank projected the Malaysian economy to expand 4.4% in 2026, at a softer pace than 5.2% growth in 2025. The bank highlighted that the country will benefit from surging AI-related exports and investment.In corporate news, shares of M N C Wireless (KLSE:MNC) slumped 23% on Thursday's close after it disclosed plans to launch the e-SIJIL platform, aimed at sectors such as government, finance, education, and legal, to streamline the creation, verification, archiving, and sharing of secure digital documents.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.29% Pre-Bell; 2-Year Rate Leans Lower to 3.79%

US Treasury Yields Mixed Ahead of Fed's Preferred Inflation Data as Lebanon Pounding Risks Iran Truce

European Council Calls for Swift Progress to Lasting US-Iran Peace, Protect Civilians, Restore Energy Normalcy

The European Council, a body which comprises heads of state of each EU member country, said it welcomes the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, according to a statement on Wednesday.Thanking Pakistan for facilitating the deal, it said the foes must now negotiate "a swift and lasting end" to the war through diplomatic means.It encouraged "quick progress" in order to protect Iran's civilian population, restore security to the region and to "avert a severe global energy crisis".The statement concluded by calling on all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Iran and said that European governments would contribute "to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."Less than two days old, the ceasefire agreement has had a shaky start with vessels showing reluctance to exit the Strait of Hormuz amid a lack of trust in the Iranian authorities while Iran says Israeli attacks on Lebanon are "a grave violation" of the ceasefire deal.While gas and oil futures contracts plunged upon the announcement of a ceasefire, prices were already rising again on Thursday, as a hoped-for normalization of energy flows has so far failed to materialize.

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Singapore Shares Retreat, Track Regional Losses as Markets Asses Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

Singapore shares closed lower on Thursday, tracking broader regional losses, with markets assessing the longevity of the US-Iran two-week ceasefire.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,974.34 and 5,009.89 throughout the day. It ended the session at 4,977.08, down 18.97 points or 0.4% compared to Wednesday's close.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated his resolve to keep its military assets around Iran until a "real agreement" is made ahead of the crunch talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.In company news, shares of InnoTek (SGX:M14) were up nearly 5% at the close, with the company targeting to raise approximately SG$16 million through the placement of up to 24.6 million shares at SG$0.6506 per share.CDW (SGX:BXE) was down over 4% as the precision components provider reported three consecutive years of pre-tax losses for its three most recent financial years.Meanwhile, shares of Parkson Retail Asia (SGX:O9E, HKG:3368) closed nearly 2% higher as it proposed to renew its share purchase mandate at its 2025 annual general meeting.

Strait of Hormuz Flow to Remain Constrained for Weeks Despite Ceasefire, Says Sparta

Energy markets face prolonged volatility as a fragile ceasefire fails to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Sparta Commodities' head of research Neil Crosby said in a note on Thursday.According to Crosby, logistical hurdles, sea mine threats, and fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure suggest global supply chains will remain severely constrained for at least another month.Sparta noted that even under peaceful conditions, clearing these mines is a long-term endeavor, suggesting that oil flows through the world's most critical chokepoint will remain significantly reduced for at least four weeks.The market outlook is further complicated by unconfirmed reports of fires near Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing facility and confirmed strikes on the East-West pipeline system, it added.These attacks directly threaten the primary rerouting alternative, which currently handles approximately 4 million barrels per day via Yanbu.Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is sharing instructions and maps for ships to avoid mines, even though it is still unclear if they have laid such explosives in the waterway or not.With leverage for a forced reopening limited, analysts suggest a "toll booth" system managed by Iran may become the only short-term path to restoring flow, though this presents significant legal and sanctions hurdles for vessel owners, Crosby noted.Meanwhile, in Europe, the supply crunch is triggering early signs of oil nationalism, with major players like Galp reportedly curbing diesel exports to prioritize domestic supply.As physical crude prices continue to climb, Sparta warned that governments may soon be forced to implement rationing.

Hang SengHKG:0068HKG:3277

Hong Kong Stocks Fall As US-Iran Ceasefire On Thin Ice; Two Firms File For IPO

Hong Kong stocks closed lower Thursday as optimism over the Middle East ceasefire faded and signs emerged that the temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran was fraying.The Hang Seng Index fell by around 140.62 points, or roughly 0.5%, to end at 25,752.40, while the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 65.48 points, or around 0.8%, to close at 8,611.83.Iran accused Israel of violating the ceasefire agreement Tehran reached with the U.S. earlier this week after Tel Aviv bombed targets in the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon and the eastern Bekaa Valley. Israel said the air strikes hit more than 100 Hezbollah command centers and military sites in 10 minutes.U.S. Vice President JD Vance is set to lead a delegation to Islamabad to formalize a peace deal with Iran. The country's parliament speaker Mohammed Bager Qalibaf said a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations were "unreasonable" amid Israeli hostilities.Meanwhile, Hong Kong's private sector firms saw a renewed deterioration in operating conditions in March amid declines in output and total new business, S&P Global said in a monthly report.The reduction came following a historically strong five-month expansion period. Panelists said the Middle East conflict lowered sales amid a dampened consumer confidence and spending, as well as stock market performance.In corporate news, two firms filed to go public in Hong Kong.Chinese cloud-native spatial design software provider Manycore Tech (HKG:0068) is looking to raise up to HK$1.22 billion via the sale of 160.6 million shares at an indicative price range of HK$6.72 to HK$7.62 per share.Net proceeds will be used mainly to support international expansion, including building global sales teams and strengthening marketing across key overseas markets.Meanwhile, Gpixel Changchun Microelectronics (HKG:3277) is seeking to raise about HK$2.60 billion via the sale of offering 65.3 million H-shares at an indicative price of HK$39.88 per share.Net proceeds will be used primarily to fund research and development, including investments in next-generation CMOS image sensor technologies.

US Markets125d ago

Malaysian Industrial Production Mixed in March

Malaysian industrial production in February rose on year, but declined from January, the latter decline due to easing exports.Malaysia's industrial production index rose 3.1% on year in February, but tumbled 9.2% from January, reported Malaysia's Department of Statistics (DOS).The nation's manufacturing output rose 4.2% on year in February, while electricity production rose by 4.6% on year, and that of mining production fell by 2%, according to the DOS.But output manufactured goods intended for export slid in February, from January."On a month-on-month basis, output of export-oriented industries in February decreased by 8.1%" from January, explained the DOS.On year in February, Malaysian output of apparel fell 1.8% on year, while that of petroleum and related products fell 2.1% and that of transportation products declined 3.5%, reported DOS.In contrast, output of electronic goods rose 12.9% on year in February, driven in part of production of semiconductors and other tech gadgets.The official Malaysia February industrial production report was roughly in with recent manufacturing-sector purchasing manager index (PMI) reports from S&P Global.Malaysia's manufacturing PMI for March rose to a seasonally adjusted 50.7, up from 49.3 in February, and striking above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, reported S&P Global.

FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Over 2% as Middle East Ceasefire Turns Fragile

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to the uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 2.43% at 46.40 euros ($54.11) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 2.53% to 117.14 pence ($1.56) per therm.The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran is facing a point of contention involving Lebanon, which continued to be attacked, which Tehran has called a breach of the truce.On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place" in Iran until a complete agreement is reached.Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will have to sail through "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Libya's Ghadames Basin Yields New Gas, Condensate Discovery

Libya's state-owned National Oil, and Sonatrach confirmed a significant oil and gas discovery at the A1-69/02 exploration well in the Ghadames Basin, NOC said on Wednesday.Located approximately 70 kilometers from the Wafa field, the A1-69/02 well reached a final depth of 8,440 feet and testing has yielded initial production rates of 13 million cubic feet of gas and 327 barrels of condensate per day, it said.The discovery represents the sixth well drilled by the Sonatrach under a 2008 exploration and production sharing agreement with two wells remaining in the current eight-well program.

South Korean Shares Close Lower amid Israel's Beirut Attack, US-Iran Ceasefire Under Strain

South Korean shares closed lower on Thursday after Israel violated the US-Iran truce and attacked Lebanon's capital, Beirut, on Wednesday.Investors remained skeptical about the longevity of the ceasefire amid the recent attack, as Tehran prepares to engage in talks with the US in Islamabad from Friday. The development also clouded the potential reopening of the critical Strait of Hormuz in the near term.The Korea Composite Stock Price Index or Kospi fell 94.33 points, or 1.6%, to end at 5,778.01. The Kosdaq also decreased by 13.85 points, or 1.3%, to close at 1,076.Israel hit Beirut without warning on Wednesday, hours after the US and Iran agreed on a two-week ceasefire. The strikes killed at least 250 people and wounded 890, according to AFP.In corporate news, Hanwha Ocean (KRX:042660) secured an order for two very large crude carriers from an Oceania-based shipowner, according to a Thursday filing with the Korea Exchange. The contract, valued at 393.3 billion won, is valid till Jan. 4, 2030.Shares of Hanwha Ocean fell more than 3% at market close.

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RBC Capital Markets Raises Commodity Price Outlook for 2026-28

RBC Capital Markets has raised its commodity price outlook due to the potentially long-lasting impact of the conflict between the US and Iran.The analysts said the tightening of supply and demand fundamentals has prompted them to raise their 2026-2028 equilibrium price for Brent/WTI by $10 to $80/$75 and Henry Hub natural gas by $0.25 to $4.00 per million cubic feet."This move reflects ongoing collateral damage in the Gulf region and a rising call on barrels globally from an energy security standpoint," RBC's research note said.It added that share buy-back activities were likely to slow given the recent sharp rise in equities valuations, up by more than 50% in the calendar year so far.In terms of trading ideas, RBC highlighted ConocoPhillips (COP) and EOG Resources (EOG) among large players, California Resources (CRC), Permian Resources (PR) and Chord Energy Group (CHRD) among small to medium and Expand Energy Corp (EXE) in gas.RBC said it had raised its EPS-to-cash flow per share estimates by an average 45% to reflect its revised commodity price expectations with oil players in this basket generally up closer to 55%.In keeping with this, price targets have been raised 27% on average, the note said.

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RBC Lifts Oil, Gas Forecasts Amid Enormous Middle East Supply Shock

Global oil and natural gas price forecasts have been sharply revised higher following the latest escalation in the Middle East, with RBC Capital Markets citing an "enormous oil supply shock" and no clear path to de-escalation.In a research report published on Wednesday, the bank said that it now sees Brent crude averaging $90.99 per barrel in 2026, up 51.3% from its prior estimates, with the West Texas Intermediate expected at $83.63 per barrel, a 49.3% upward revision.Similarly, RBC raised its natural gas outlook, with Henry Hub prices seen at $4.07 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit, up 7%. In contrast, European gas prices are expected to more than double, with the UK NBP forecasts at $16.51 per MMBtu.The report said that expectations of normalization in European gas prices had been "upended," as Asian buyers seek out alternative supplies, competing directly with buyers within the bloc.Globally, around one-fifth of LNG supply has been taken offline due to the Iran conflict. However, RBC noted that increased capacity additions and weaker Chinese demand could partially cushion the shock.The bank's analysts also moved their natural gas liquids forecast higher, attributing it to replacement demand for propane and butane, flows of which have been disrupted during the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.