-- Energy markets face prolonged volatility as a fragile ceasefire fails to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Sparta Commodities' head of research Neil Crosby said in a note on Thursday.
According to Crosby, logistical hurdles, sea mine threats, and fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure suggest global supply chains will remain severely constrained for at least another month.
Sparta noted that even under peaceful conditions, clearing these mines is a long-term endeavor, suggesting that oil flows through the world's most critical chokepoint will remain significantly reduced for at least four weeks.
The market outlook is further complicated by unconfirmed reports of fires near Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing facility and confirmed strikes on the East-West pipeline system, it added.
These attacks directly threaten the primary rerouting alternative, which currently handles approximately 4 million barrels per day via Yanbu.
Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is sharing instructions and maps for ships to avoid mines, even though it is still unclear if they have laid such explosives in the waterway or not.
With leverage for a forced reopening limited, analysts suggest a "toll booth" system managed by Iran may become the only short-term path to restoring flow, though this presents significant legal and sanctions hurdles for vessel owners, Crosby noted.
Meanwhile, in Europe, the supply crunch is triggering early signs of oil nationalism, with major players like Galp reportedly curbing diesel exports to prioritize domestic supply.
As physical crude prices continue to climb, Sparta warned that governments may soon be forced to implement rationing.