Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:
Markets: United States Treasuries weaken in late New York session, turn sideways in Asia. E-minis little changed, Asian equities mixed. The US dollar (USD) trades stronger. The euro (EUR) at US$1.167. Brent recovers to $97/barrel.
Fed: Minutes show that the vast majority thought inflation progress could be slower, while it viewed employment risks as skewed to the downside. "Many" said higher-for-longer inflation could call for hikes, while "most" judged protracted Iran war could hit job market and warrant cuts and "some" saw "strong case" for two-sided language on rate path.
Fed: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly calls the economy "remarkably resilient," says it's too early to know the economic consequences of the Iran war.
Fed economist Chris Phelan is said to be the front-runner for President Donald Trump's economic adviser role (Politico sources).
Iran plans to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and to charge tolls (WSJ). White House reiterates it wants no limitations at Hormuz, including tolls, says Lebanon isn't part of the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance says there won't be any sanctions relief if Iran develops nuclear weapons, sees signs that Hormuz is starting to reopen, Israel offered to restrain strikes during talks.
Iran: Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says ceasefire deal with the U.S. was violated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it's preparing "heavy" response to attack on Lebanon (Mehr). Iran designates routes for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz (Nour).
Iran/Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says this isn't the war's end. He insisted that the ceasefire wouldn't include Hezbollah.
NATO: President Trump says NATO "won't be there if we need them again." Trump weighs punishing certain countries over Iran support, including moving troops out of some states and potential closure of at least one base (WSJ sources). NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says his meeting with Trump was a discussion among "good friends."
Venezuela: The U.S. weighs lifting central bank sanctions to unlock oil.
==EUROPE:
EU: European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis says the European Union will be hit by "stagflationary shock" (FT).
France: Budget Minister David Amiel says the government is sticking to the 2026 deficit target of 5%, could beat it depending on the economy.