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Middle East Oil, Gas Output Recovery to Take Months Despite Hormuz Ceasefire, Warns Wood Mackenzie

After the ceasefire between the US, Israel, and Iran this week, a recovery in oil and gas flows through the Middle East is still a long way off, with plenty of steps and processes that could last months, according to a report by commodity analysts at Wood Mackenzie.The report said that 11 million barrels per day of upstream oil production remains shut in, meaning they are not currently operational, even as the underlying capacity remains intact. This cannot be restored until export routes normalize and vessel traffic resumes at scale.In order to bring these barrels back to market, "A 'workable system' of transit and shipowner confidence in the security of the transiting vessels is essential," said Alan Gelder, SVP Refining, Chemicals and Oil Markets at Wood Mackenzie.Gelder added that facilitating insurance, trade finance and "sustained inbound vessel transits" are key in restoring confidence in the Strait.He also noted that ballasting vessels, or ships that come in empty to pick up oil, will not be willing to do so, given the risk of getting trapped, if hostilities were to resume once again after the two week ceasefire.The report noted that as exports begin to ramp-up, storage will help facilitate upstream production and refining to restart activity in full-swing.However, it noted that not all countries have sufficient storage. As such, Saudi Arabia and the UAE can ramp up output quickly, while Iraq could take six to nine months to return to pre-conflict output levels due to reservoir and operational complexities.Coming to the global gas markets, the ceasefire may allow trapped LNG cargoes in the Gulf to exit, offering limited near-term relief, according to Wood Mackenzie.For real structural change in supply, however, Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility has to restart its 12 operable trains, according to Tom Marzec-Manser, Europe Gas and LNG analyst at Wood Mackenzie. "It is unclear if QatarEnergy would consider doing this during a ceasefire," he said.The firm estimates that even if restart efforts begin in early May, full restoration of all 12 trains could take until the end of August, while damaged capacity at the South site may remain offline for years.Meanwhile, disruptions to domestic gas infrastructure in the UAE could further complicate regional supply dynamics, Marzec-Manser said.He warned that "sustained disruption at Habshan," Abu Dhabi's gas processing facility, could significantly tighten domestic gas availability, potentially forcing the UAE to cut reinjection volumes or even ramp up imports via the Dolphin pipeline system.

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Oil, Ceasefire Views Damp Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia, Europe Off

Wall Street futures pointed moderately lower pre-bell Thursday, as traders weighed rising oil prices and sought clarity on Persian Gulf war outlooks.The Strait of Hormuz apparently remained closed to the vast majority of oil tanker traffic early Thursday.In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.4%, the Nasdaq declined 0.4% and the Dow Jones was off 0.4%.West Texas Intermediate crude oil traded higher at $99.35, up 5.2% in morning trades.Investors also await the personal consumption expenditures-core (PCE-core) price index for February, slated for release in Washington at 8:30 am ET. The Federal Reserve's preferred inflation metric may provide clues to price pressures, but before the Middle East turmoils of March.Asian exchanges traded mostly lower overnight, while European bourses tracked moderately south midday on the continent.On the economic calendar, in addition to the PCE-core report, is the revised Q4 GDP bulletin, the weekly jobless claims bulletin, the February personal income and outlays report, and the Q4 corporate profit release, all at 8:30 am ET.In premarket action, Bitcoin traded at $71,431 and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.28%. Spot gold commanded $4,740 an ounce.

Germany's Manufacturing Production Contracts in February on Lower Pharmaceuticals, Electronics Output

Production in Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly declined month over month in February, even before the war in the Middle East began, as output from the pharmaceuticals and electronics industries weakened, provisional data from the Federal Statistical Office showed Thursday.Real, price-adjusted manufacturing output dropped 0.3% in February, after seasonal and calendar changes, compared with the upwardly revised stagnation in January. The consensus estimate for February was a 0.9% rise.On a monthly basis, production of pharmaceuticals and computer, electronic, and optical products contracted 4.4% and 3.9%, respectively. Amid the cold winter weather, construction output slipped 1.2%, while automotive production improved 1.7%. Destatis data paints a picture of a "very reluctant, hesitant consumer," while the manufacturing sector struggles to gain positive momentum, said Carsten Brzeski, the global head of macro at ING.Annually, German manufacturing output after calendar adjustment was stable, against the revised 0.9% decrease in January. Excluding energy and construction, industrial production in February slipped 0.1% on the month and 0.6% on the year.In energy-intensive industries, which account for 17% of industrial gross value, production expanded 1.9% month over month and 0.1% on a yearly basis. Consumer goods production fell 1.5% sequentially, while the output of intermediate goods and capital goods rose by 0.4% and 0.1%, respectively. Germany, one of Europe's largest net importers of energy, clocked a 0.3% monthly gain in energy production in February."All in all, February's macro data shows that even without the war in the Middle East, the German economy was unfortunately on track for yet another quarter of contraction. To make things worse, the war in the Middle East, no matter how sustainable yesterday's announced ceasefire will prove to be, will leave clear marks on the German economy over the next few months. As much as we were hoping to finally comment on some good economic news from Germany, it is a bit like waiting for a German train these days: definitely delayed and uncertain whether it will ever arrive," Brzeski concluded.

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^BSENifty 50BOM:532483BOM:540047NSE:CANBKNSE:DBL

Indian Equities Slip on Thursday Amid Rising Middle East Tensions

Indian equity benchmarks ended lower on Thursday as renewed geopolitical tensions and rising crude oil prices weighed on sentiment.The BSE Sensex fell 1.2%, or 931.25 points, to finish Monday's session at 76,631.65, while the NSE Nifty 50 slipped 0.9%, or 222.25 points, to 23,775.10.Investors were cautious after fresh Israeli strikes in Lebanon reduced hopes for a two-week U.S.-Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Canara Bank's (NSE:CANBK, BOM:532483) board has extended Hardeep Singh Ahluwalia's additional charge as managing director and CEO for three months until June 30.Dilip Buildcon (NSE:DBL, BOM:540047) joint venture DBL-RBL won a 2.68-billion-rupee contract from the Gujarat government. The project covers the design and construction of the Ged Barrage across the Sabarmati River, including protection and allied works.

Canada's Provincial Bond Valuations "Hint" at An Oil Exposure Premium, Says National Bank

In a nod to recent Middle East turbulence, National Bank of Canada said it tested the significance and value of a Canadian province's relative energy-sector exposure.Notwithstanding a sharp re-pricing of crude oil on an 11th hour Iran war ceasefire, provincial bond valuations hint at an oil exposure premium, noted the bank.That's sensible enough, given the amount of above-plan resource revenue National Bank has been estimating, it stated.The bank likewise finds targeted evidence of political risk at the longer end of the provincial credit curve.

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Middle East War Dents Japan Consumer Confidence

Undercut by Middle East war and rising fuel prices, Japan's seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index declined to 33.3 in March, down from 39.7 in February, reported the Cabinet Office on Thursday.Consumer confidence index readings above 50 indicate optimism and improved mood, while results below 50 reflect pessimism.In the subcategories, the March index for "overall livelihood" logged 29.7 in March, down from 39.5 in February.For "income growth," the consumer index struck 39.8 in March, off from 42.3 in February, said the Cabinet Office.The "employment" index posted at 37.6 in March, off from 43.3 in the previous month.And the "willingness to buy durable goods" index declined to 26.0 in March, off from 33.7 in February, said the Cabinet Office.With fuel bills in mind, 93.1% of survey respondents in March expected overall prices to rise in the next 12 months, noted the Cabinet Office.The consumer confidence index survey was conducted on March 15, and polled 8,400 households, with a 76.3% response rate, added the Cabinet Office.The declining consumer confidence report followed on the heels of a soft Economy Watchers bulletin, issued on Wednesday.Japan's Economy Watchers Survey index fell to 42.2 in March from 48.9 in February, striking the lowest level since February 2022.The monthly Japan Economy Watchers Survey measures the economic sentiment of workers in consumer-facing industries, such as taxi drivers, hotel staff, and restaurant employees.

Nikkei 225

Japan Machine Tool Orders Jump 28% in March

Japanese machinery orders rose 28% year over year to 193.51 billion yen in March, the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association (JMTBA) reported Thursday.The figures reflect a rebound in global industrial capital expenditure, as well as increased industrial demand, according to an analysis by trading platform AInvest on the same day.The figure surpassed a 24% increase in the previous month, AInvest said.External demand jumped 40% year over year to 143 billion yen during the month, while domestic demand edged up 2.5% year over year to 50.5 billion yen, the JMTBA said in its March report.For the first quarter, total orders increased 26% year over year to 485.8 billion yen.External orders surged 35% year on year to 365.5 billion yen, while domestic orders inched up 4.6% to 120.3 billion yen.

Nikkei 225

Market Chatter: QatarEnergy Initiates LNG Production Restart at Ras Laffan Complex

QatarEnergy is preparing to resume liquefied natural gas (LNG) and associated liquids production at the world's biggest such facility for the export market, Reuters reported Wednesday citing sources familiar with the matter.Sources close to the company indicated that two out of the three conventional liquefaction trains at the QELNG North 1 facility in Ras Laffan Industrial City have been successfully brought back online, as per the report.Following a series of aerial attacks on its primary infrastructure in March, QatarEnergy was forced into a total production suspension of LNG and associated liquids at Ras Laffan, the world's largest LNG export facility.Wood Mackenzie analysts suggested that returning the entire 12-train Ras Laffan complex to full service could still take several months.Qatar's export capabilities also remain tethered to the volatile security situation in the Strait of Hormuz.Iranian naval forces continue to enforce a restrictive permission-based transit system, reportedly warning that the waterway remains effectively shut to uncoordinated commercial traffic.Consequently, while Qatar may be able to fill its storage tanks, a return to normal global deliveries is dependent on shipping corridors reopening.The company did not respond immediately to' request for comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Hang SengNikkei 225Shanghai Composite

Middle East War Uncertainty Caps Asian Stock Markets

Asian stock markets largely fell back Thursday, as traders looked for clarity on the status of the Strait of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf war.Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Tokyo finished in the red, while other regional exchanges were mixed.In Japan, the Nikkei 225 opened evenly but declined in trading, finishing off 0.7% as traders booked profits after Wednesday's rally following reports of a Middle East ceasefire.The benchmark Nikkei 225 fell 413.10 to 55,895.32, as losing issues outnumbered gainers 169 to 54.Leading the upside was Yokogawa Electric, up 4.1%, while retail conglomerate Aeon declined 8.2%.In economic news, Japan's seasonally adjusted Consumer Confidence Index declined to 33.3 in March, down from 39.7 in February, reported the Cabinet Office.Japan's machine tool orders jumped by 28.1% year-on-year in March, driven by a 40.4% surge in offshore demand, reported the Japan Machine Tool Builders Association.In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index opened lower and could not recover, closing down 0.5% on ebbing optimism regarding Middle East negotiations.The broad gauge Hang Seng fell 140.62 to 25,752.40 as losing issues outnumbered gainers 53 to 36. The Hang Seng TECH Index lost 2.1% on the day, while the Mainland Properties Index fell 0.3%.Leading the upside was aluminum producer China Hongqiao, gaining 5.2%, while property company Longfor declined 5.6%.On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite fell 0.7% to 3,966.17.On the other regional exchanges, the South Korean KOSPI fell 1.6%; the Taiwan TWSE rose 0.3%; the Australian ASX 200 gained 0.2%; the Singapore Straits Times Index fell 0.4%, and the Thai Set inclined 0.3%. In late trading in Mumbai, the Sensex was down 1.2%.The MSCI All Country Asia Pacific Index fell 0.9% on the day.

Convatec Launches New Strategy to Hit Upgraded Revenue Targets

Convatec Group (CTEC.L) on Thursday detailed its new strategic plan to help achieve its aims of fast-tracking "sustainable and profitable" growth and reaching recently upgraded midterm revenue goals.In a same-day release, the medical products and technologies company said its Accelerate strategy marks the next stage of its growth ambitions and builds on its FISBE framework, which stands for focus, innovation, simplify, build, and execute.The new strategy is structured around four pillars, including customer-focused growth, the use of its innovation pipeline and artificial intelligence technology to address patient needs, as well as culture, purpose and performance. The fourth strategic cornerstone, execution excellence, is focused on rapid, "right first time, on-time on-budget" delivery and shortened innovation cycle timelines to streamline operations, improve productivity and meet its goals."Convatec delivers innovative medical solutions to improve the lives of millions of people living with chronic conditions. The opportunity for future growth is substantial. Our Accelerate strategy is how we will deliver the next chapter of Convatec's exciting story," Chief Executive Officer Jonny Mason said.The group's medium-term outlook now targets an annual organic revenue growth of between 6% and 8%, up from the prior 5% to 7% range. Convatec projects its infusion care unit to grow by double digits, as it expects mid-to-high single-digit growth for its advanced wound care, ostomy care, and continence care divisions.Additionally, the group guided to an adjusted operating margin of between 24% and 26% by 2027, compared with 22.3% in 2025. It also expects "sustainable" double-digit adjusted annual EPS growth and a double-digit free cash flow to equity compound annual growth rate.The London-listed stock was nearly 3% in the red by Thursday midday trade.

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Constellation Issues Weak Full-Year Earnings Outlook as Fiscal Fourth-Quarter Results Decline

Constellation Brands (STZ) shares inched lower early Thursday after the beer and wine company provided a full-year earnings outlook below Wall Street's estimates and recorded year-over-year declines in its fiscal fourth-quarter results.The maker of Modelo and Corona anticipates comparable earnings to come in between $11.20 and $11.90 per share for fiscal 2027, it said late Wednesday, while the current consensus on FactSet is for $12.38. In the previous fiscal year, comparable EPS dropped 14% to $11.82 on an annual basis.In April 2025, the company projected EPS to grow by mid-single-digits to low-double-digits for fiscal 2027. Constellation also withdrew its previously issued fiscal 2028 outlook to reflect the current environment, it said.Enterprise organic sales, beer sales and organic sales in the wine and spirits division are all expected to range from a 1% decline to a 1% rise for the ongoing fiscal year, according to Constellation. Company-wide organic sales slid 10% in fiscal 2026."Looking ahead to fiscal 2027, while we are encouraged by the momentum displayed during the fourth quarter across our beer and wine and spirits businesses, we expect the operating environment to remain dynamic given the evolving socioeconomic backdrop and limited near-term visibility," the company said.The stock declined 0.8% in the most recent premarket activity.The company posted adjusted EPS of $1.90 for the three-month period ended Feb. 28, down from $2.63 the year before, but ahead of the Street's view of $1.71. Net sales fell 11% to $1.92 billion, beating the average analyst estimate of $1.88 billion."Despite the dynamic operating environment in fiscal 2026, we remained focused on the factors within our control and executed with discipline," Chief Executive Bill Newlands said in the earnings release. "We expect consumers will continue to navigate a shifting macroeconomic environment, but we remain encouraged by the momentum we saw in the fourth quarter."Beer revenue ticked up 1% to $1.73 billion, buoyed by shipment growth of 1.1% and favorable pricing. The division's depletion rate, or the pace at which units are sold to end consumers, edged up 0.6%, as gains in the Pacifico, Victoria and the Modelo Chelada brands more than offset declines in Modelo Especial and Corona Extra.Sales of wine and spirits tumbled 58% to $194.2 million, amid a 73% plunge in shipment volume. This reflected the impacts of the divestiture of certain wine and spirits brands, strategic pricing actions on certain brands and changes in distributor contract obligations, the company said. The division's depletion rate inclined 8.3%.

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Canada's Vulnerability Stands Out Among Trade Partners Amid U.S. Tariffs, Says RBC

Despite the unprecedented scope of the United States tariffs, major economies weathered the trade shock in 2025, but with significant distributional shifts under the surface, said RBC.U.S. imports reoriented rapidly away from higher-tariffed regions like China, but still rose overall in 2025 as American consumers, businesses, and governments continued to spend, noted the bank. Almost 90% of global trade that doesn't involve the U.S. continued to grow.Distributional impact has been concentrated, stated RBC. Headline gross domestic product in Canada held up better than feared, while specific sectors -- steel exports were down 30%, motor vehicles, aluminum -- and regions, such as Ontario and Quebec with an over 6% effective tariff rates, have been hard hit.Canada's heavily integrated cross-border supply chains are a challenge that most offshore U.S. trade partners don't face, pointed out the bank. Canada's share of the U.S. import market declined in 2025 despite almost 90% of exports remaining tariff-free.The world can absorb U.S. trade shocks, while Canada cannot as easily, according to RBC. The year marked global resilience to trade policy uncertainty, and the U.S. share of Canada's exports declined. But, it is still high at 71.6%, leaving Canada fundamentally more exposed than most other trade partners.

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Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries weaken in late New York session, turn sideways in Asia. E-minis little changed, Asian equities mixed. The US dollar (USD) trades stronger. The euro (EUR) at US$1.167. Brent recovers to $97/barrel.Fed: Minutes show that the vast majority thought inflation progress could be slower, while it viewed employment risks as skewed to the downside. "Many" said higher-for-longer inflation could call for hikes, while "most" judged protracted Iran war could hit job market and warrant cuts and "some" saw "strong case" for two-sided language on rate path.Fed: San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank President Mary Daly calls the economy "remarkably resilient," says it's too early to know the economic consequences of the Iran war.Fed economist Chris Phelan is said to be the front-runner for President Donald Trump's economic adviser role (Politico sources).Iran plans to restrict traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and to charge tolls (WSJ). White House reiterates it wants no limitations at Hormuz, including tolls, says Lebanon isn't part of the ceasefire. Vice President JD Vance says there won't be any sanctions relief if Iran develops nuclear weapons, sees signs that Hormuz is starting to reopen, Israel offered to restrain strikes during talks.Iran: Parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf says ceasefire deal with the U.S. was violated, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) says it's preparing "heavy" response to attack on Lebanon (Mehr). Iran designates routes for safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz (Nour).Iran/Israel: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says this isn't the war's end. He insisted that the ceasefire wouldn't include Hezbollah.NATO: President Trump says NATO "won't be there if we need them again." Trump weighs punishing certain countries over Iran support, including moving troops out of some states and potential closure of at least one base (WSJ sources). NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte says his meeting with Trump was a discussion among "good friends."Venezuela: The U.S. weighs lifting central bank sanctions to unlock oil.==EUROPE:EU: European Commission Executive Vice President Valdis Dombrovskis says the European Union will be hit by "stagflationary shock" (FT).France: Budget Minister David Amiel says the government is sticking to the 2026 deficit target of 5%, could beat it depending on the economy.

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FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIKLSE:MNC

Malaysian Shares Ended Lower, Mirroring Regional Losses; M N C Wireless' Shares Plunge 23%

Malaysian shares closed lower on Thursday, reversing yesterday's gains, mirroring regional losses.Investors turned cautious after Donald Trump reaffirmed plans to keep US forces deployed around Iran until a "real agreement" is secured, ahead of talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.The FTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI shed 10.07 points to shed 0.6% lower at 1,686.24. The day range was between 1,680.01 and 1,692.65.In economic news, the World Bank projected the Malaysian economy to expand 4.4% in 2026, at a softer pace than 5.2% growth in 2025. The bank highlighted that the country will benefit from surging AI-related exports and investment.In corporate news, shares of M N C Wireless (KLSE:MNC) slumped 23% on Thursday's close after it disclosed plans to launch the e-SIJIL platform, aimed at sectors such as government, finance, education, and legal, to streamline the creation, verification, archiving, and sharing of secure digital documents.

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls to 4.29% Pre-Bell; 2-Year Rate Leans Lower to 3.79%

US Treasury Yields Mixed Ahead of Fed's Preferred Inflation Data as Lebanon Pounding Risks Iran Truce

European Council Calls for Swift Progress to Lasting US-Iran Peace, Protect Civilians, Restore Energy Normalcy

The European Council, a body which comprises heads of state of each EU member country, said it welcomes the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, according to a statement on Wednesday.Thanking Pakistan for facilitating the deal, it said the foes must now negotiate "a swift and lasting end" to the war through diplomatic means.It encouraged "quick progress" in order to protect Iran's civilian population, restore security to the region and to "avert a severe global energy crisis".The statement concluded by calling on all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Iran and said that European governments would contribute "to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."Less than two days old, the ceasefire agreement has had a shaky start with vessels showing reluctance to exit the Strait of Hormuz amid a lack of trust in the Iranian authorities while Iran says Israeli attacks on Lebanon are "a grave violation" of the ceasefire deal.While gas and oil futures contracts plunged upon the announcement of a ceasefire, prices were already rising again on Thursday, as a hoped-for normalization of energy flows has so far failed to materialize.

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Singapore Shares Retreat, Track Regional Losses as Markets Asses Fragile US-Iran Ceasefire

Singapore shares closed lower on Thursday, tracking broader regional losses, with markets assessing the longevity of the US-Iran two-week ceasefire.The Straits Times Index (STI), a key benchmark for the Singapore Exchange, ranged between 4,974.34 and 5,009.89 throughout the day. It ended the session at 4,977.08, down 18.97 points or 0.4% compared to Wednesday's close.Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump reiterated his resolve to keep its military assets around Iran until a "real agreement" is made ahead of the crunch talks in Islamabad, Pakistan.In company news, shares of InnoTek (SGX:M14) were up nearly 5% at the close, with the company targeting to raise approximately SG$16 million through the placement of up to 24.6 million shares at SG$0.6506 per share.CDW (SGX:BXE) was down over 4% as the precision components provider reported three consecutive years of pre-tax losses for its three most recent financial years.Meanwhile, shares of Parkson Retail Asia (SGX:O9E, HKG:3368) closed nearly 2% higher as it proposed to renew its share purchase mandate at its 2025 annual general meeting.