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Scotiabank Comments on the Canadian Dollar, Oil Decoupling

The relationship between the Canadian dollar (CAD) and oil prices has weakened "materially" over the past decade, and the current episode is no exception, said Scotiabank.Despite a sharp rise in oil prices amid the Iran war, the CAD response has been largely muted, noted the bank.The apparent decoupling does not imply the relationship has disappeared, stated Scotiabank. There remains a meaningful underlying link between oil and the CAD, but not all oil shocks matter equally.The bank's analysis showed the CAD responds significantly more to demand-driven oil price increases than to supply-driven ones.Once the source of oil price movements is taken into account, the decoupling is largely explained, according to Scotiabank. Controlling for oil supply versus demand shocks, alongside interest-rate differentials and broad US dollar (USD) dynamics, fully accounts for the decline in the oil-CAD correlation, without the need to invoke time-varying elasticities or structural breaks.The CAD upside remains limited in supply-led oil rallies, added the bank. By and large, the combination of supply-driven oil gains, weak global demand, and US dollar safe-haven flows argues for a subdued CAD response in the current environment.

$CAD$CXY$USD

S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$CHP-UN.TO$FCR-UN.TO

TSX Down 20 Points at Midday With Most Sectors Higher

The Toronto Stock Exchange is down 20 points at midday, with most sectors in the green.Telecoms and info tech the best performers, up 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively.In Canada, the focus was on the release of existing home sales data for March."Clearly, the market continues to struggle amid several headwinds, including soft job markets, economic uncertainty, falling population growth, and strained affordability," TD Economics said after a "soft" performance in Canadian home sales for March, following four straight monthly declines. TD added: "With these challenges in place, 2026 is shaping up to be another modest year for Canadian housing. Loose supply/demand balances should keep downwardly pressuring prices in B.C. and Ontario. Elsewhere, price growth should be firmer, but likely cool as the year progresses."New listings were also flat during the month. With new listings and sales both barely moving, the sales-to-new listings ratio stayed at 47.8% in March. "This is well below the long-term average and signals modest price growth moving forward", TD said.Average home prices were also flat in March, while the MLS home price index, a more 'like for like' measure, declined 0.4% m/m, and was down 4.7% on a year-on-year basis. Prices for detached units were down 0.3% m/m, while condo prices fell 0.9% m/m.The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) on Thursday cut its home sales growth forecasts for this year amid a "tepid" start to the year for the economy and higher odds of a Bank of Canada rate hike later this year to tame inflation resulting from the oil price spike. Some 474,972 residential properties are forecast to be sold in 2026, a 1% increase over 2025, CREA wrote. This is below the 5.1% increase forecast that it released in January. The national average home price is forecast to rise 1.5% on an annual basis to $688,955 this year, less than the 2.8% growth CREA saw in January. In 2027, national home sales are forecast to climb a further 2.1% to 485,071 units. This could be revised above the 500,000 mark should higher interest rates prove unnecessary to fight inflation, added CREA.In company news, First Capital REIT (FCR-UN.TO) is to be acquired by Choice Properties REIT (CHP-UN.TO) and and KingSett in a cash and units deal valued at $9.4 billion. The transaction also involves George Weston (WN.TO).

Star Group Raises Quarterly Dividend to $0.1975 a Unit From $0.1850, Payable May 6 to Holders of Record April 27

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CIBC Confirms Neutral Rating on Allied Properties REIT and Raises Target to $11

CIBC Capital Markets maintained its neutral rating on the units of Allied Properties Real Estate Investment Trust (AP-UN.TO) and increased its target price to $11.00 from $10.50.The bank said the company's units have "significantly outperformed" the market in recent weeks. Its $11.00 price target is based on 10.6x 2027 FFO/u estimate, implying a 1% premium to its revised net asset value estimate."We believe management and board changes have begun to alter AP's leasing approach, which we expect will help it deliver on its three-year outlook," said analyst Tal Woolley. "We think units can continue to run here due to some possible speculative factors, but we expect the operational recovery to be a multi-year process, consistent with what AP laid out following Q4 results and the $560MM equity offering."CIBC believes the market is "either expecting a quicker fundamental turnaround or there may be some speculative factors at play"."Sufficiently chastened by the Q3/25 reporting experience (units ran up, then dropped -17%), we advise caution in aggressively chasing AP units here, as we do not expect to see a clear turn in operating performance until late 2026," added Woolley. "This is consistent with AP's 3-year outlook. AP: the financial recovery will take time."The bank also noted that in the management circular, the board made significant downward discretionary adjustments to executive incentive compensation. It also believes the reconfigured C-suite will see "more success" with a more flexible leasing strategy.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $11.27, Change: $+0.59, Percent Change: +5.52%

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CIBC Provides Q1 Preview for Shopify; Says Strong Quarter And 2026 Outlook Expected

CIBC Capital Markets reiterated its outperformer rating and its US$185 price target on the shares of Shopify (SHOP.TO, SHOP), as it provided first quarter preview for the company.Shopify reports Q1 results on May 5 followed by a conference call, said CIBC.CIBC expects SHOP to meet or beat Q1 consensus and provide constructive Q2 guidance, supported by strength in payments, new merchant adds, and Europe."Our alt data reinforces this view and suggests Q1 momentum is extending into early Q2: Plus merchants we track saw web-traffic growth accelerate to ~25% Y/Y in April (vs. 20% in Q1 and ~17% last quarter; through Apr 11)," said CIBC.It added that this supports upside to GMV and positions SHOP to exceed revenue growth and FCF margin expectations."Our outlook assumes faster Merchant Solutions growth (offsetting slower Subscription Solutions), supported by CIBC alt-data trends for Plus merchants, EMEA momentum, enterprise and retail POS adoption, and AI integrations," added CIBC. "Key offsets include mix-driven gross margin pressure (Payments) and higher opex from reinvestment in R&D and S&M; we also assume a higher tax rate in Q1 that normalizes later in 2026."It noted that, since March 2025, SHOP has beaten consensus by ~3% on revenue and ~4% on FCF, on average. CIBC said that a key risk remains execution against FCF margin guidance in the low-to-mid-teens, with FactSet aligned currently implying it will be below Q1/25."Our price target is (US)$185, based on 12x our 2027E sales forecast plus cash and its equity stake in Flexport," added CIBC. "SHOP's Rule of X (2x growth + FCF margin) continues to screen near the top of comparable constituents in the BVP NASDAQ Emerging Cloud Index, supporting a premium multiple."Price: $176.40, Change: $+1.21, Percent Change: +0.69%

$SHOP$SHOP.TO

SRx Health Solutions, EMJ Crypto Buy Compass Shares, Increase Opendoor Investment

SRx Health Solutions (SRXH) and EMJ Crypto Technologies said Thursday they acquired shares of Compass (COMP) in the open market and increased the investment in Opendoor Technologies (OPEN).SRx Health said it has also filed a registration statement with the US Securities and Exchange Commission in connection with its proposed merger with EMJ Crypto, according to a statement.

$COMP$OPEN$SRXH

Treasury62d ago

Canada's Housing Market Stalls Amid Mounting Headwinds in March, Says National Bank

Canadian home sales remained stable in March, down 0.1%, from February, following four consecutive monthly declines, said National Bank of Canada.At the regional level, monthly declines were registered in six provinces: Prince Edward Island, down 16.6% month over month, New Brunswick, down 9.2%, Alberta, down 5.2%, Nova Scotia, down 3.5%, Manitoba, down 0.5% and British Columbia, down 0.4%.Conversely, sales increased in Quebec, up 0.4% month over month, Ontario, up 1.8%, Saskatchewan, up 9.6% and Newfoundland, up 10.0%.With home sales being unchanged in March, activity levels remain particularly low in the Canadian housing market, with transactions down 17.3% from their 10-year average, noted the bank.Several factors continue to weigh on the real estate market, including population decline, the weak performance of the labor market since the start of the year and economic uncertainty, and now geopolitical uncertainty as well, National Bank said.The conflict in the Middle East has even had spillover effects on the Canadian real estate market, with mortgage rates rising in March as bond yields increased due to the rise in inflation anticipated by the markets, it pointed out.Looking ahead, a pickup in activity could be possible later this year if the trade uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the USMCA trade deal is resolved, according to the bank. In the meantime, activity levels during the peak spring season are likely to remain low, leading National Bank to forecast a 5% decline in transactions in 2026 compared with the year before.

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Oil & Energy62d ago

LNG Market Hit by Supply Shock as Europe Faces Tighter Outlook, OIES Says

Global LNG supply fell about 20% in Q1 2026 after the Iran war shut the Strait of Hormuz, triggering price shocks across Europe and Asia, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies strategists said Wednesday.The disruption largely impacted Asia, as most Persian Gulf exports from Qatar and the UAE are directed there, though price effects were also felt strongly in Europe, OIES said.Supply flows did not halt immediately, as cargoes shipped before the closure continued arriving through March and early April, delaying the full physical impact on importers.OIES expects a sharper supply squeeze in April, when the absence of fresh shipments from the Persian Gulf becomes more visible across the global market.The disruption followed the European Union's move to ban Russian liquefied natural gas from Jan. 1, 2027, and pipeline gas by Nov. 1, 2027, tightening future supply expectations, OIES said.Even with additional output from North America, the loss of Gulf supply would prevent the market from becoming oversupplied, keeping conditions tighter than previously expected.Despite higher prices, gas demand in Europe has not declined materially and is likely to remain stable through 2026 due to limited short-term flexibility, except in some commercial use, according to OIES.Lower gas consumption in the power sector this summer may ease pressure, helping Europe secure an additional 6 billion cubic meters needed to refill storage amid what is expected to be a tighter LNG market, OIES added.Even if the disruption is short-lived, the price shock and renewed supply concerns are expected to boost interest in alternative energy sources, including low-carbon gases and electrification, particularly in Europe over the medium to longer term, OIES said.

Walmart Adds Weight Management Support Access to GLP-1 Customers

Walmart (WMT) said Thursday it has expanded its Better Care Services platform to include weight management support services for customers currently on or exploring GLP-1 therapies.The platform now offers obesity and weight management support programs from third-party providers, the company said.Price: $124.60, Change: $-0.17, Percent Change: -0.13%

$WMT

Bit Origin Secures Financing to Explore AI Computing, Data Center Services Expansion

Bit Origin (BTOG) said Thursday that it has secured strategic financing to explore expansion into AI-driven computing and data center services.Financing details were not disclosed.The company said it intends to potentially develop opportunities in leasing, AI computing, storage infrastructure, and cooling services, including GPU-based computing resources and related server systems.Bit Origin said that the timing and extent of any business execution will depend on its ability to secure further financing, finalize commercial arrangements, access qualified personnel and suitable partners, and assess market conditions.Bit Origin shares were down more than 6% in Thursday trading.Price: $2.63, Change: $-0.14, Percent Change: -4.88%

$BTOG

German DAX Extends Gains Amid Growing Hopes to End of Iran War

Germany's blue-chip DAX index ended Thursday's session 0.36% higher, buoyed by increasing optimism over a potential end to the war in Iran.Reuters reported, citing an unnamed source, that a key Pakistani mediator achieved a breakthrough on "sticky issues" between the US and Iran, while noting Iranian officials cautioned that the future of the nation's nuclear program remains unresolved. Pakistan's army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, is in Tehran seeking to extend the Iran ceasefire after weekend talks in Islamabad failed to yield a deal. And while both sides remain open to further negotiations, a timeline has not yet been established, the news outlet added.On the economic front, inflation in the eurozone accelerated in March. According to final data from Eurostat, the euro area's annual inflation rate rose to 2.6% from 1.9% in February, above the flash estimate of 2.5%. Meanwhile, the core rate, which excludes energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, came in at 2.3%, consistent with the preliminary reading and down from the previous 2.4%.For the month, services were cited as the highest contributor, followed by energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, and then non-energy industrial goods.Against this backdrop, BofA Global Research noted that euro area inflation and economic growth are more sensitive to oil price movements than the US. "Using a VAR approach, we show that the Euro area economy has a much larger sensitivity to oil prices than the US for both inflation and growth. We find the inflationary impact of a 10% oil shock to reach about 40 [basis points], with the corresponding growth impact of over 10bp. Both effects are about twice as large as for the US. We think the larger share of energy in Europe's consumption basket, as well as the region being an oil importer, explain the results. Our findings suggest that Europe will take a larger hit from the energy shock compared to the US," the research firm wrote.In corporate news, Bayer (BAYN.F) was down 0.12%, as Deutsche Bank Research lifted the hold-rated stock's price target to 43 euros from 23 euros ahead of the German life science company's first-quarter results due on May 12."We forecast Q1 [organic sales growth] to increase by 3.6% YoY, driven by Crop Science, boosted by a EUR450m licensing income, offsetting a flattish performance in Pharma and modest growth in Consumer Health. ... Bayer's direct exposure to the ME is very limited, and its end markets are relatively resilient. While we anticipate growing energy & input cost headwinds for crop protection, this is relatively small as a % of group and energy is well hedged," Deutsche Bank said.Meanwhile, the German cartel office authorized defense company Rheinmetall's (RHM.F) subsidiary, Rheinmetall Digital, and space technology group OHB (OHB.F) to form a joint venture focused on pursuing a future procurement contract for the German armed forces. Rheinmetall fell 1.20%, while OHB gained 3.97%.

^DAX$BAYN.F$OHB.F$RHM.F

AIM ImmunoTech Starts Late-Stage Trial of Ampligen in Pancreatic Cancer

AIM ImmunoTech (AIM) said Thursday it has begun a phase 3 clinical trial of its experimental drug Ampligen for pancreatic cancer, calling the move an important milestone supported by encouraging phase 2 results.The company recently signed an agreement with Thermo Fisher Scientific's (TMO) PPD clinical research unit to help design the phase 3 study.An ongoing phase 2 trial testing Ampligen with AstraZeneca's (AZN) immunotherapy durvalumab has shown early signs of improved progression-free survival and overall survival, along with a favorable safety profile, AIM said.Price: $0.57, Change: $+0.03, Percent Change: +5.35%

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Research62d ago

Update: Seaport Global Securities Downgrades Shift4 Payments to Neutral From Buy

(Updated to include Seaport's commentary)Seaport Global Securities downgraded Shift4 Payments (FOUR) to neutral from buy, expecting softer discretionary spend and Global Blue headwinds ahead.The firm's guidance now looks weaker than it had previously anticipated, with Global Blue the main callout, analyst Jeff Cantwell wrote in a Thursday note, adding that it no longer sees a path to a $1 billion exit run-rate in adjusted EBITDA next year.Shift4 Payments has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $64.14, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $48.88, Change: $+0.87, Percent Change: +1.80%

$FOUR

UK Shares Gain on Better-than-Expected GDP Report; Entain Shines

The UK's FTSE 100 rallied 0.29% on Thursday's close after government data showed better-than-expected economic growth in February, while the US blockade of Iranian ports continues as the Trump administration seeks a peace agreement with Iran.The UK's gross domestic product expanded 0.5% month over month in February, following a revised 0.1% growth in January, the Office for National Statistics said. The reading beat market expectations for a 0.1% uptick."The large upside surprise to GDP growth in February will reignite concerns about residual seasonality in the GDP statistics, but nonetheless confirms that the economy made a good start to the year," Berenberg said. "On an annual basis, growth picked up from 0.7% yoy to 1.0% yoy as a strong February made up for a disappointing end to 2025. Sadly, the start of the Iran war on 28 February will stop the upswing in its tracks."In corporate news, Entain (ENT.L) climbed 6.02% to become one of the top risers on the blue-chip index after reiterating its 2026 guidance for online net gaming revenue to rise between 5% and 7% on a constant currency basis. The sports betting and gaming company's net gaming revenue rose 3% for the first quarter, with online net gaming revenue rising 5% and retail net gaming revenue down 3%."Our strong and resilient business has started the year well, and we continue to build on this momentum. Our sharper focus and optimisation initiatives reinforce our conviction in delivering sustainable growth and improving cash generation. Entain remains well positioned to be a long-term industry winner, seizing the many opportunities ahead, and I am confident in our future," Chief Executive Officer Stella David said.On the flip side, Rentokil Initial (RTO.L) fell 0.82% at closing. The pest control and hygiene services company logged a 4.3% yearly rise in first-quarter revenue while projecting full-year performance in line with market expectations."Q1 organic growth was slightly ahead at 3.4% (vs our forecast of 3.0%)," RBC Capital Markets said. "Within that US Pest Control Services growth was 2.8% - slightly better than Q4's 2.6%, despite the tough weather in Jan. This was partly offset by weaker growth in International, due to tough Pacific [comparables] and Middle East impacts."

FTSE 100$ENT.L$RTO.L

European Stocks Mixed in Thursday Trading; EU, Euro Area Inflation Surges

The European stock markets were mixed in Thursday trading as investors keep a wary eye on developments in the Middle East, while European Union and Euro Area inflation rises sharply from soaring oil prices spurred by the Middle East war.The Stoxx Europe was marginally lower, Germany's DAX was up 0.4%, the FTSE 100 was rising 0.3%, France's CAC was 0.1% higher, and the Swiss Market Index was off 0.3%.Euro area annual inflation surged to 2.6% in March from 1.9% in February, and 2.2% a year earlier, according to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union. In the EU, annual inflation jumped to 2.8% in March from 2.1% in February, and 2.5% a year earlier.The lowest annual rates were in Denmark at 1.0%, followed by Czechia, Cyprus and Sweden at 1.5% each. Meanwhile, the highest annual rates were in Romania at 9.0%, followed by Croatia and Lithuania at 4.6% and 4.4% respectively.Compared with February, inflation rose in 23 of the 27 EU member states, fell in three, and was unchanged in one.In the UK, GDP growth was 0.5% in February up from 0.1% in January, according to the Office for National Statistics, which said the sharp increase was spurred mainly by growth in mining and quarrying. The reading easily topped analyst forecasts of 0.1%, according to Bloomberg.And in corporate news, Stellantis plans a 100-million-euro ($117.9 million) investment to overhaul its Poissy assembly plant near Paris in a bid to keep the facility open, Bloomberg News reported Thursday. The company will continue producing vehicles at the facility through at least the end of 2028, according to the report.Stellantis didn't immediately respond to' request for comment.Stellantis also said Thursday that it has signed a five-year strategic collaboration deal with Microsoft to co-develop advanced artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and engineering capabilities for the automaker's cars.Shares of the automaker were declining 0.9% in Paris.TotalEnergies said Thursday that Q1 exploration and production results are expected to rise significantly, supported by higher oil prices and contributions from new projects.Integrated liquefied natural gas results are also projected to be significantly higher sequentially, driven by a 10% increase in production and strong trading activity. Downstream results are expected to improve as well, supported by higher refining utilization rate and robust trading.Shares of the French energy company were up 0.7% in Paris.Equinor said Thursday it expects stronger Q1 results in its marketing, midstream, and processing division. The company projects the division's average quarterly adjusted operating income at around $400 million."Result this (Q1) is expected to be above this guidance," Equinor said. "The conflict in the Persian Gulf has driven significant volatility across crude, products and liquids towards the end of the quarter."Shares of the Norwegian petroleum refiner were trading 1.2% higher in Oslo.Royal Philips said Thursday that it has received a 510(k) clearance from the US Food and Drug Administration for its Spectral CT Verida system.Verida is a computed tomography X-ray system intended for diagnostic imaging in radiology, interventional radiology, among others, Royal Philips said. The submission is intended to demonstrate to the FDA that a medical device is as safe and effective as a legally marketed device, according to the government agency.Shares of the healthcare tech company were off 0.1% in Amsterdam.Opera said Thursday it has launched Browser Connector, a new feature in Opera One and Opera GX that integrates artificial intelligence tools directly into live browsing sessions via model context protocol.The company said the feature provides AI services such as ChatGPT and Claude with real-time context from open tabs and active content.Shares of the internet browser company increased 5.6% in Frankfurt.