FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Homebuilders' Earnings Likely to be Weighed Down by War Fallout, Soft Spring Selling Season, Truist Says

By

Several key US homebuilders' earnings this year are likely to take a hit, as the economic fallout from the Middle East conflict weighs on an already-soft spring selling season, Truist Securities said Thursday.

The brokerage lowered its bottom-line estimates for the upcoming quarter and full year for six homebuilders. These are D.R. Horton (DHI), Meritage Homes (MTH), NVR (NVR), PulteGroup (PHM), Taylor Morrison Homes (TMHC), and Toll Brothers (TOL).

Truist also trimmed its price targets for the six stocks, as it factored in inflation and the erosion in consumer confidence amid higher oil prices driven mainly by the US-Israel war with Iran that broke out at the end of February.

"The timing of this war was very unfortunate," Truist analyst Jonathan Bettenhausen said in a note to clients. "While we think industry expectations for this spring selling season were already calling for a roughly down low-single-digit environment from last year, we find it unlikely that a significant deterioration in the geopolitical environment was factored into those expectations."

The brokerage said that while it's not expecting "many beats" among the stocks it covers, its favorite going into the latest quarterly print is Taylor Morrison. That stock likely has "the most bad news priced in," Bettenhausen wrote.

"We think any optimism on the spring selling season has effectively evaporated, and we have lowered our demand assumptions accordingly for (the first half) quarters, but also for the back half of the year on worse spring (build-to-order) new order demand," the analyst said.

With new home sales and new residential construction data for March yet to be released, alternative market indicators such as mortgage reports and Google Trends "do not yield encouraging demand trends, which in our view, confirms the prevailing market sentiment on demand," according to the note.

On Wednesday, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo said US homebuilder confidence sank this month to the lowest since September amid economic uncertainty, as well as increasing building material costs and interest rates.

The White House is optimistic about reaching a deal with Iran, noting that a potential second round of talks would likely be held in Pakistan. Over the weekend, US-Iran peace negotiations in Islamabad ended without a deal. Meanwhile, a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Tehran holds.

Price: $144.72, Change: $+0.52, Percent Change: +0.36%

Related Articles

US Markets

Nasdaq, S&P 500 Hit New Highs Amid US-Iran Peace Talk Prospects

The Nasdaq Composite and the S&P 500 notched record highs on Wednesday, buoyed by hopes that another round of peace talks between the US and Iran will likely result in a deal.The Nasdaq rose 1.6% to 24,016, marking the 11th consecutive one-day gain in a row, while the S&P 500 advanced 0.8% to 7,023. Both are new closing highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.2% to 48,463.7.Most sectors ended in the red, led by materials, while tech saw the biggest gain.Microsoft (MSFT) shares climbed 4.6%, the top gainer on the Dow, with fellow tech majors Salesforce (CRM), Apple (AAPL), and IBM (IBM) among the best performers on the index.Reports suggest Washington and Tehran could return to Pakistan for a second round of talks ahead of the deadline for a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The first round of negotiations in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough."We feel good about the prospects of a deal," White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said Wednesday, CNN reported."Markets have grown more confident that the Middle East crisis is moving toward a resolution, with the US and Iran arranging a second round of talks, and Tehran seemingly willing to halt shipments to avoid testing the US naval blockade," ING Bank said in a report.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was down 0.1% at $91.16 a barrel in Wednesday late-afternoon trade, while Brent gained 0.1% to $94.91.In company news, shares of retail brokers jumped, with Robinhood Markets (HOOD) up 10%, the best performer on the S&P 500. Webull (BULL) jumped 11%, while Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) rose 3.4%.The rally followed the approval by the US Securities and Exchange Commission of a rule change that would eliminate the $25,000 minimum equity requirement for so-called "pattern day traders."Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America's (BAC) first-quarter results topped Wall Street's estimates. Morgan Stanley's shares climbed 4.5%, while Bank of America rose 1.8%.Snap (SNAP) rallied 7.9%. The social media company plans to lay off about 1,000 employees, or roughly 16% of its full-time workforce, as part of Chief Executive Evan Spiegel's efforts to reduce costs.In economic news, US homebuilder confidence sank this month to the lowest since September amid economic uncertainty, as well as increasing building material costs and interest rates, the National Association of Home Builders and Wells Fargo said."Builder sentiment has fallen back in spring as buyers face ongoing elevated interest rates and growing economic uncertainty," NAHB Chairman Bill Owens said. "The year started with hopes for housing momentum growth, but risks with respect to the Iran war, energy costs, and declines for consumer confidence have slowed the market."US Treasury yields were higher, with the 10-year rate up 2.8 basis points at 4.28% and the two-year rate rising 1.5 basis points to 3.77%.Gold was last down 0.7% at $4,816.50 per troy ounce, while silver fell 0.3% to $79.32 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAPL$BAC$BULL$CRM$HOOD$IBKR$IBM$MS$MSFT$SNAP
US Markets

Fed's Beige Book Shows Growth in Economic Activity Despite Middle East Tensions

Most Federal Reserve districts saw growth in economic activity since early March despite hostilities in the Middle East, the US central bank said in its latest Beige Book released Wednesday.Eight districts reported a slight to moderate rise in economic activity, while the remaining four saw little change or declining activity, according to the latest document, prepared by the New York Fed based on data collected by April 6.The previous Beige Book, which was released March 4, showed that most Fed districts reported economic growth since mid-January, while the overall outlook was "optimistic." Information for that report was collected before the US-Israel war with Iran broke out at the end of February."The conflict in the Middle East was cited as a major source of uncertainty that complicated decision-making around hiring, pricing, and capital investment, with many firms adopting a wait-and-see posture," according to the latest report Wednesday.Reports suggest Washington and Tehran could return to Pakistan for a second round of talks ahead of the deadline for a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran. The first round of peace talks in Islamabad ended without a breakthrough.Consumer spending edged higher despite a harsh winter weather in some areas and higher fuel prices, the Fed said."Many districts continued to report signs of consumer financial strain, increased price sensitivity, and rising demand at food banks and other social service organizations, while spending among higher-income consumers was resilient," the Beige Book showed.Activity was described as mixed in the agriculture sector, with rising crop prices offsetting the surge in fertilizer and fuel costs.US farmers are facing fertilizer affordability constraints as supply disruptions caused by the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz have pushed prices higher, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation.A vast majority of districts saw moderate price increases overall, although all reported sharp gains in energy and fuel costs due to the Middle East conflict, according to the Beige Book. US consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.Employment was steady to up slightly, with one district reporting a slight decline, the Fed document showed. On the labor front, demand was seen stable in most districts amid low turnover and minimal layoffs, the Fed document showed."Business outlooks varied amid widespread uncertainty about future conditions," the Beige Book said.The Fed should be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy in light of heightened risks to inflation and employment driven by the Iran war, minutes from the central bank's March 17-18 policy meeting showed last week.

US Markets

Retail Brokers Rally as SEC Approves Proposal to End Pattern Day Trade Minimum Balance

Shares of retail brokers rallied on Wednesday after the US Securities and Exchange Commission approved a rule change that would eliminate the $25,000 minimum equity requirement for so-called "pattern day traders."Under the original rule that dates back to 2001, pattern day traders, or investors who execute four or more day trades within five business days, were required to keep a minimum $25,000 equity in their margin accounts.The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, Wall Street's self-regulatory watchdog, had proposed a rule change to replace that restriction with intraday margin provisions reflecting investors' market exposure.The SEC approved FINRA's proposal, according to a notice issued Tuesday.Shares of retail brokerage Robinhood Markets (HOOD) rallied 10% on Wednesday, while Webull (BULL) jumped 11%. Interactive Brokers Group (IBKR) rose 3.4%.The SEC notice must be published in the Federal Register to take effect, The Wall Street Journal reported.The new framework allows investors to execute trades without frequency limits and redeploy capital throughout the same trading session, Webull said on Wednesday."The shift in intraday margin rules represents a meaningful evolution in how active traders can participate in the markets," Webull Group President Anthony Denier said in a statement.

$BULL$HOOD$IBKR