Canadian home sales remained stable in March, down 0.1%, from February, following four consecutive monthly declines, said National Bank of Canada.
At the regional level, monthly declines were registered in six provinces: Prince Edward Island, down 16.6% month over month, New Brunswick, down 9.2%, Alberta, down 5.2%, Nova Scotia, down 3.5%, Manitoba, down 0.5% and British Columbia, down 0.4%.
Conversely, sales increased in Quebec, up 0.4% month over month, Ontario, up 1.8%, Saskatchewan, up 9.6% and Newfoundland, up 10.0%.
With home sales being unchanged in March, activity levels remain particularly low in the Canadian housing market, with transactions down 17.3% from their 10-year average, noted the bank.
Several factors continue to weigh on the real estate market, including population decline, the weak performance of the labor market since the start of the year and economic uncertainty, and now geopolitical uncertainty as well, National Bank said.
The conflict in the Middle East has even had spillover effects on the Canadian real estate market, with mortgage rates rising in March as bond yields increased due to the rise in inflation anticipated by the markets, it pointed out.
Looking ahead, a pickup in activity could be possible later this year if the trade uncertainty surrounding the renewal of the USMCA trade deal is resolved, according to the bank. In the meantime, activity levels during the peak spring season are likely to remain low, leading National Bank to forecast a 5% decline in transactions in 2026 compared with the year before.