US, Iran Agree in Principle to 60-Day Framework to End Conflict, TPH Energy Says
The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would lay the groundwork for negotiations to end the ongoing Middle East conflict, Jeff LeBlanc, a TPH Energy strategist, said in a Friday note.However, the agreement is still awaiting approval from President Trump as negotiators finalize language around Iran's nuclear program.LeBlanc said the tentative framework, first confirmed by US officials on Wednesday, would keep a fragile ceasefire in place, while both sides negotiate a broader accord covering sanctions relief, oil exports and security in the Strait of Hormuz.The proposed memorandum would reportedly include a commitment by Iran to reopen the Hormuz to unrestricted commercial traffic within 30 days and pledge not to pursue a nuclear weapon.The US, in exchange, would lift its naval blockade and potentially provide waivers on some oil sanctions, according to details circulating among market participants and analysts.However, Iranian rhetoric has continued to frame oversight of the Strait as a sovereign right, underscoring the challenges negotiators face in converting a ceasefire into a durable settlement.LeBlanc said this MoU only lays the framework for future negotiations, "... with both parties reiterating red lines, this process is likely to be laborious."Markets remained focused on the Hormuz, the key chokepoint that carries about 20% of the world's crude supply.LeBlanc said traffic via the strategic waterway has yet to fully normalize following the outbreak of the ongoing conflict and mine-laying incidents in the Persian Gulf.TPH analysts said language surrounding Iran's removal of naval mines suggests the reopening process could take longer than initially anticipated, leaving energy markets vulnerable to renewed disruptions even as diplomatic progress continues.Crude prices have retreated from recent highs on expectations that a sustained ceasefire and eventual sanctions relief could restore more Iranian barrels to global markets.However, the analysts cautioned that the agreement remains preliminary and could still unravel if negotiations over Iran's nuclear ambitions stall.The US and Iran have publicly maintained that the ceasefire remains intact despite sporadic skirmishes reported over recent days, which has helped sustain optimism that talks will continue.
