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SM Energy Seen Beating Oil Production Expectations, TPH Energy Says

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SM Energy (SM) could produce more oil than previously expected through the rest of the year, even as recent asset transactions complicate comparisons in the company's near-term financial results, TPH Energy Research analyst Oliver Huang said in a Friday note.

Huang said the independent US oil and gas producer appears positioned to outperform both company guidance and Wall Street expectations on oil production in the coming quarters.

The forecast comes after SM Energy completed several portfolio changes, including a partial acquisition tied to Civitas Resources earlier this year and the sale of certain natural gas-focused South Texas assets at the end of April.

Despite those moving pieces, TPH estimates Q1 oil production at about 238,500 barrels per day, above the company's guidance range of 228,000 b/d to 235,000 b/d and slightly ahead of broader analyst expectations.

For the second half of 2026, the firm expects oil output to average roughly 240,000 b/d, modestly above both company guidance and consensus estimates.

TPH also expects SM Energy's capital spending to land toward the high end of its projected annual range as the company continues development activity.

The research firm said additional asset sales aimed at reducing debt could serve as a catalyst for the shares. SM Energy is viewed by investors as a company with significant exposure to oil prices because of its relatively high leverage and large crude oil production base, making the stock more sensitive to swings in oil markets.

The company's shares have outperformed since oil prices strengthened amid geopolitical tensions and war-related disruptions, supported by what TPH described as a strong first-quarter performance.

TPH maintained a "Hold" rating on the stock with a $38 price target.

Price: $30.53, Change: $-0.63, Percent Change: -2.02%

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