FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Canada's Budgetary Surplus Higher In March and Also Up Between April 2025 and March 2026 Compared To a Year Earlier

By

Canada's budgetary deficit was higher on a year over year basis in March, and also over the April 2025 to March 2026 period, according to data released Friday from the Department of Finance.

There was a budgetary deficit of $29.7 billion in March 2026, compared to a deficit of $23.9 billion in March 2025, the department said in its latest Fiscal Monitor. The government posted a budgetary deficit of $55.3 billion for the April 2025 to March 2026 period of the 2025-26 fiscal year, compared to a deficit of $43.2 billion reported for the same period of 2024-25.

Last month, the Canadian federal government's spring economic update pointed to a lower than expected deficit and stable public finances. The federal deficit came in near $11 billion lower than expected, at around 2% of GDP and seen stable in coming years.

On today's numbers for March, the budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses and gains was $20.6 billion, compared to a deficit of $23.5 billion in the same period of 2024-25. The budgetary balance before net actuarial losses and gains is intended to supplement the traditional budgetary balance and improve the transparency of the government's financial reporting by isolating the impact of the amortization of net actuarial losses and gains arising from the revaluation of the government's pension and other employee future benefit plans.

Compared to March 2025: Revenues increased by $1.8 billion, or 4.0%, largely reflecting higher revenues from corporate income tax, interest and penalties, and the Goods and Services Tax (GST). These increases were partially offset by decreases in pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians, Employment Insurance (EI) premium revenues, and customs import duties.

Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were down $1.2 billion, or 1.9%, largely reflecting

lower direct program expenses due to savings recognized in March 2026 from amendments to employee future benefit plans announced in Budget 2025, offset in part by a year-over-year timing difference in Canada-wide early learning and child care transfers and higher other transfer payments.

Public debt charges were up $0.1 billion, or 2%, as higher average effective interest rates on an increased stock of marketable bonds were largely offset by lower interest rates on treasury bills. Also, net actuarial losses were up $8.8 billion, from $0.3 billion to $9.1 billion, reflecting the accelerated amortization of actuarial losses following amendments to employee future benefit plans noted above, in accordance with government accounting standards.

The budgetary deficit before net actuarial losses was $41.6 billion, compared to a deficit of $39.1 billion in the April to March period of 2024-25,

Compared to 2024-25: Revenues were up $5.2 billion, or 1.1%, largely reflecting increases in personal and corporate income tax revenues, other revenues, and customs import duties due to the countermeasures imposed in response to U.S. tariffs. These increases were offset in part by lower pollution pricing proceeds to be returned to Canadians and lower GST revenues.

Program expenses excluding net actuarial losses were up $7.6 billion, or 1.6 per cent, reflecting increases in major transfers to persons, major transfers to provinces, territories and municipalities, and direct program expenses, partly offset by the wind-down of the Canada Carbon Rebate

Related Articles

Treasury

Canada's Economy "Remained Ice Cold" Early 2026, But Central Bank May Hesitate To Put Cuts Back on the Table, says Desjardins

Canada's economy "remained ice cold" throughout the early days of 2026, says Royce Mendes over at Desjardins, but even though the early economic results for 2026 "aren't encouraging" the Bank of Canada may be hesitant to put cuts back on the table, he adds.Mendes noted Friday's economic data showed quarterly GDP declined 0.1% in Q1, in sharp contrast to expectations for 1.5% growth. Falling investment rates across the economy provided a "stiff headwind", he said, noting residential investment was down another 8% annualized in Q1, while non-residential business capital spending declined 3%. Government investment also fell, reversing some of the defense-driven surge seen in the second half of 2025.Household spending continued to grow, posting an increase of 1.5%, Mendes noted, but he also noted with weakness across the labour market in Q1, the household savings rate declined to 3.5% to support that spending. The Q1 savings rate is the lowest rate seen since early 2024. Final domestic demand, a better gauge of the underlying momentum in the economy, declined 0.4% in Q1.Mendes noted imports surged 12%, but much of that was driven by sharply higher gold purchases. Excluding categories that include gold, imports were up roughly 5%. Exports continued to be hindered by tariffs, edging down 0.5% on declines in the auto sector. "Exports face severe downside risk this summer, with the CUSMA review set to heat up," Mendes added.The economy, Mendes noted, has looked "volatile" on a monthly basis. After rising in February, GDP posted a slight decline of 0.1% in March. Despite the spike in oil prices, oil and gas extraction fell in March as a result of longer than anticipated maintenance and repairs at some upgrading facilities as well as harsh weather across the Prairies. But, Mendes also noted, Statistics Canada's advance estimate for April points to a "big bounce back", with GDP apparently having risen 0.4%. As a result, the Desjardins early tracking for Q2 GDP points to a rebound of 1.5 to 2.0% annualized growth.Mendes noted a second consecutive quarterly contraction in Canada's population meant that per capita GDP was up almost 1% annualized, and recent communications from the central bank have highlighted the need to separate the structural slowdown in economic activity due to lower potential growth from any cyclical weakness. The fact that per capita GDP actually rose will limit the central bank's ability to respond to the slowdown, Mendes said, but added: "markets are correctly, in our opinion, pricing out the likelihood of rate hikes on the news of weaker than expect GDP numbers."

$$CXY
Treasury

Canada's Economy Continues to Struggle in Q1 But Q2 Points to Better Start, Says CIBC

The Canadian economy continued to struggle in Q1 as gross domestic product posted another decline, said CIBC after Friday's GDP data.The 0.1% annualized drop was in stark contrast with the consensus for a rebound to 1.5%, noted the bank.Increases in consumption and inventories were offset by a drop in business investment and government spending, as well as a subtraction from net trade as imports increased and exports fell, while residential investment was also down sharply.This marks the fifth drop in business investment in a row, as trade uncertainty continues to weigh on activity, stated CIBC.That left final domestic demand at 0.4% quarter-over-quarter annualized decline, down from 2.7% in the prior quarter, while the household saving rate eased off further to 3.5%, the lowest level in two years, which doesn't bode well for consumption in the coming quarter, added the bank.Q2 got off to a better start, however, with the advance estimate suggesting a 0.4% month-over-month increase in GDP, pointed out CIBC.

$$CXY
Treasury

Canada's March GDP Falls 0.1%, Misses Expectations; April Seen Rebounding 0.4%

Canadian real gross domestic product edged down 0.1% month over month in March, partially offsetting February's increase of 0.2% and driven by contractions in goods-producing industries, said the country's statistical agency on Friday.March's contraction was worse than a 0.1% month-over-month consensus expansion provided by MUFG.Goods-producing industries contracted 0.8% in March for the fifth decline in the last six months, noted Statistics Canada. The decrease in March was in large part a reflection of lower activity in the mining, quarrying, and oil and natural gas extraction sector, and in the construction sector. Services-producing industries tempered the decline, edging up 0.1% in March. Overall, eight of the 20 industrial sectors contracted in March.Advance information indicates that real GDP increased 0.4% in month over month April, added StatsCan. Increases in mining, quarrying, and oil and gas extraction, manufacturing and transportation, and warehousing were partially offset by decreases in agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting.Real GDP was unchanged in Q1 quarter over quarter, after declining 0.2% in Q4 2025. Higher imports of goods, particularly gold, were offset by accumulations of business inventories. Decreased business and government capital investment was counterbalanced by higher household spending, as final domestic demand edged 0.1% lower.GDP and Income and Expenditure Accounts measure the production of goods and services in the Canadian economy as well as the incomes arising from this production and expenditure on the production. GDP represents the unduplicated value of goods and services produced during the reference period and are available for domestic consumption, investment or export.

$^GSPTSE$.GSPTSE$$CXY