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US Oil Update: Oil Tumbles More Than 2% as Trump Says Again That War Near End

Oil prices tumbled more than 2% Wednesday as US President Donald Trump's assurances of a swift end to the Iran war prompted brief profit-taking, though investors remain highly sensitive to ongoing physical disruptions across Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 2.3% to $101.78 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 2.5% to $108.53/bbl.During the White House Congressional Picnic on Tuesday, Trump reportedly told lawmakers the war would end "very quickly.""Trump warned US strikes on Iran could resume within days if talks with Gulf nations fail, adding to market volatility," Saxo Bank analysts said.According to Saxo Bank, crude continues to trade with an aggressive risk premium reflecting the realities of the conflict.Analysts noted that if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed into June, localized supply crunches now hitting downstream markets are expected to transition into severe global oil shortages, potentially triggering a significant, secondary price spike.On the supply side, data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy80d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Down Over 2% After Trump Repeats Claim Iran War Near End

European natural gas futures were down on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump signaled a potential end to the conflict in the Middle East, repeating previous unsubstantiated claims made over the course of the Iran war so far.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was down 2.31% at 50.620 euros ($58.70) per megawatt hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract was down 2.52% to 123.460 British pence ($1.65) per therm.On Tuesday, while addressing lawmakers at the White House's annual Congressional Picnic, Trump said that his administration was set to end the war "very quickly," while noting that even Tehran wanted to "make a deal so badly."Vice President JD Vance echoed that sentiment, saying, "we think that we've made a lot of progress," while acknowledging lingering uncertainties and cautioning that it was difficult to draw firm conclusions until "we're actually putting pen to paper on signing a deal."Tehran, however, has yet to confirm this stance and its latest statements do not appear to align with Trump's declaration.The Islamic Revolution Guards Corps has issued a warning that any renewed aggression against the country would expand the conflict beyond the region, adding that Iran had not yet deployed all of its combat capabilities, according to Tasnim News Agency.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained closed for the 12th week running, with zero vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Natural gas prices remained elevated in Europe, with new supply disruptions, such as operational issues at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant and the strike at Inpex's Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, weighing on supplies, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ.This will make it tougher for Europe to replenish gas inventories now filled to 36.69% of capacity after a surprise withdrawal following weeks of injections. The figure compares to reserves of 44.71% of capacity one a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories are also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.On the weather front, just days after unseasonably cold temperatures, Europe is set to experience a late-May heatwave, as a heat dome takes shape across much of the continent, according to Severe-Weather EU.Temperatures across Spain and Portugal are expected to reach mid-to-upper 30 degrees Celsius, giving rise to cooling demand across the region.

Oil & Energy80d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Drops Over 3% Following Trump's Remarks

Oil futures dipped more than 3% on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump reportedly said that the war with Iran would end very quickly, temporarily easing geopolitical anxieties despite persistent disruptions to Middle Eastern supplies.Front-month Murban crude futures fell 3.1% to $104 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 3% to $107.91/bbl."The situation in Hormuz is still deadlocked and Trump last night made new threats to attack Iran. If the strait remains closed into June, there is a risk that the oil shortage becomes acute in parts of the world, which could send the oil price significantly higher than today," SEB analysts said.According to Saxo Bank, crude continues to trade with an aggressive risk premium driven by the ongoing realities of the conflict.Analysts noted that if the vital chokepoint remains restricted into June, the localized supply crunches currently hitting downstream markets are expected to transition into severe global oil shortages, potentially triggering a significant, secondary price spike.This structural anxiety was underscored by recent data from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, which confirmed a massive restructuring of risk-taking across derivatives markets.Due to the high volatility and unpredictable physical disruptions in the Middle East, commercial traders are noticeably retreating from standard Brent futures, fundamentally altering liquidity across global oil benchmarks, OIES noted.Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy80d ago

South Korea, Japan Explore Energy, LNG Supply Cooperation Amid Global Uncertainty

Japan and South Korea will deepen cooperation on energy security and supply-chain resilience, according to a press statement issued by the two major East Asian economies, following a meeting between Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung on Tuesday.The proposed measures include emergency crude oil swaps, petroleum product sharing and closer coordination on liquefied natural gas operations, as uncertainties continue to mount in global energy markets.As part of the initiative, Japan's Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry and South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Resources said they would encourage public-private dialogue aimed at facilitating cooperation during emergencies.This comes following a memorandum signed between Japanese energy company JERA and Korea Gas Corp. in March, focusing on LNG operational optimization, which authorities said could serve as a foundation for broader cooperation."Recent instability in supply chains and energy markets stemming from the situation in the Middle East has further underscored the need for close cooperation between our two countries," Lee said in the statement, according to a Reuters report.Japan's Takaichi also reaffirmed the importance of energy resilience and enhancing reserves in the Indo-Pacific, especially between the world's second and third largest LNG importers.

Oil & Energy81d ago

Energean Oil Output Drops in Q1 Over Iran War Disruption to Israel Ops

London-listed Energean produced 21% less oil in Q1 due to government orders to suspend work in Israel due to the Iran war, it said on Wednesday.Output fell to 114,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day on average down from 145,000 boe/d in Q1, 2025, Energean's earnings statement said.Following a restart in Israel, after the Feb. 28 to April 9 interruption, production has returned to normal levels of 152,000 boe/d, including 116,000 boe/d in Israel.Production guidance across the group for 2026 is 130,000 to 140,000 boe/d, reduced from 140,000 to 150,000 boe/d previously, including Israel outlook reduction to 98,000 to 104,000 boe/d, down from 108,000 to 114,000 boe/d.The company expects second oil train commissioning by late May increasing liquids production to 20,000 barrels per day from 13,000 bbl/d, the statement said.Energean said it is on track to receive all necessary warrants to take up a presence in Angola after its acquisition of Chevron's (CVX) 31% operated interest in oil Block 14 and 15.5% non-operated interest in Block 14K.The company says the acquisition is a first step to expanding its presence in West Africa.

$CVX

Oil & Energy81d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Tick Up as Trump Shows Confidence in Quick Iran Conflict Resolution

European natural gas futures made slight gains on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump signaled a potential quick end to the ongoing conflict with Iran.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.08% to 51.860 euros ($60.08) per megawatt hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 0.06% to 126.750 British pence ($1.69) per therm.On Tuesday, while addressing lawmakers at the White House's annual Congressional Picnic, Trump said that his administration was set to end the war "very quickly," while noting that even Tehran wanted to "make a deal so badly."Vice President JD Vance echoed that sentiment, saying, "we think that we've made a lot of progress," while acknowledging lingering uncertainties and cautioning that it was difficult to draw firm conclusions until "we're actually putting pen to paper on signing a deal."Tehran, however, is yet to confirm these developments, with no statements by any Iranian leaders or reports by the country's news agencies so far indicating any such shifts.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained closed for the 12th week running, with zero vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.Natural gas prices continued to remain elevated in Europe, with new supply disruptions, such as the operational issues at Malaysia's Bintulu LNG plant and the labour strike at Inpex's Ichthys LNG plant in Australia, weighing on supplies, according to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ.This comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with gas inventories depleted at just 36.69% of capacity, witnessing a surprise withdrawal after weeks of steady injections. This compares to 44.71% of capacity during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories are also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy81d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Holds Above $100 as Mixed Signals Come From Middle East

Brent prices eased on Wednesday, but held firmly above $100 per barrel as market optimism over reported US-Iran diplomatic progress was capped by renewed military threats from Trump.The Brent futures contract eased 0.4% to $110.89 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $107.35 on May 19 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update."The situation in Hormuz is still deadlocked and Trump last night made new threats to attack Iran. If the strait remains closed into June, there is a risk that the oil shortage becomes acute in parts of the world, which could send the oil price significantly higher than today," SEB analysts said.This structural anxiety was underscored by recent data from the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, which confirmed a massive restructuring of risk-taking across derivatives markets.Due to the high volatility and unpredictable physical disruptions in the Middle East, commercial traders are noticeably retreating from standard Brent futures, OIES noted.Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories dropped by 9.1 million barrels in the week ended May 15.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.According to Saxo Bank, crude continues to trade with an aggressive risk premium driven by the ongoing realities of the conflict.

Oil & Energy81d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Settle Lower as Vance Signals Progress in Iran Talks

Crude oil futures slipped in after-hours trading on Tuesday after Vice President JD Vance indicated that the US and Iran were making progress in peace talks, easing concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures eased by 0.34% to $104.04 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 0.91% to $111.08/bbl.On Tuesday, US Vice President Vance reportedly said that the US and Iran have made significant progress in their talks and that neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign."We think that we've made a lot of progress. We think the Iranians want to make a deal," Vance reportedly said at a White House briefing."The uncertainty surrounding talks, sanctions policy, and the duration of supply disruptions continues to keep energy markets volatile despite the temporary easing in geopolitical tensions," said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG.On Tuesday, President Trump said he was "an hour away" from deciding whether to attack Iran before he was convinced to postpone the strike for a few days.Trump's remarks come a day after he claimed in a social media post on Monday that the US was delaying a previously unannounced strike planned for Tuesday because several Middle Eastern leaders asked him to "hold off" in light of ongoing discussions with Iran."One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted," ING strategists said in a note on Tuesday.However, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs Kazem Gharibabadi reportedly rejected any consideration for surrender, saying Tehran is united and ready to confront any military aggression.The US "says it has 'temporarily' stopped the attacks on Iran to give negotiations a chance, but at the same time speaks of readiness for a massive offensive at any moment," Gharibabadi reportedly said, adding that Trump's remarks mean calling "threat" a "peace opportunity."The ongoing Middle East conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, creating the world's largest oil supply disruption, according to the International Energy Agency.Iran unveiled a new body, the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority, on Monday to oversee activities related to Hormuz. The agency said it would issue guidance to vessels transiting the waterway, including emails outlining passage rules and regulations.Saxo Bank strategist said traffic via the Strait remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply.On Tuesday, the US sanctioned over 50 entities, including oil and gas tankers as well as an Iranian foreign currency exchange, in its continued bid to get Tehran to agree to a deal and reopen the Hormuz.

Oil & Energy81d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Drops as Trump Halts Iran Strike, Easing Supply Fears

Crude oil futures retreated in midday trading on Tuesday after President Trump suspended a planned military strike on Iran to provide a window for peace talks, a decision that eased immediate supply disruption in the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by 0.04% to $108.62 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 1.10% to $110.84/bbl."Oil prices fell after President Trump said he had postponed a planned US military strike on Iran following appeals from Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE, raising hopes for renewed negotiations," said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG.On Tuesday, Trump said he was "an hour away" from deciding whether to attack Iran before he was convinced to postpone the strike for a few days.His remarks come a day after he claimed in a social media post on Monday that the US was delaying a previously unannounced strike planned for Tuesday because several Middle Eastern leaders asked him to "hold off" in light of ongoing discussions with Iran."One might think the oil market would become increasingly numb to these headlines. However, the scale of supply disruptions is significant and growing more concerning each day that oil flows remain halted," ING strategists said.However, Iran's deputy foreign minister for legal and international affairs rejected any consideration for surrender, saying Tehran is united and ready to confront any military aggression."The United States says it has 'temporarily' stopped the attacks on Iran to give negotiations a chance, but at the same time speaks of readiness for a massive offensive at any moment," Kazem Gharibabadi said, adding that Trump's remarks mean calling "threat" a "peace opportunity."The ongoing Middle East conflict has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway that handles about 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, creating the world's largest oil supply disruption, according to the International Energy Agency.The US Navy has redirected 88 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled four others since imposing the blockade on April 13, the US Central Command said in a social media post on Tuesday.Iran unveiled a new body, the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority, on Monday to oversee activities related to Hormuz. The agency said it would issue guidance to vessels transiting the waterway, including emails outlining passage rules and regulations.Saxo Bank strategist said traffic via the Strait remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply.On Tuesday, the US sanctioned over 50 entities, including oil and gas tankers as well as an Iranian foreign currency exchange, in its continued bid to get Tehran to agree to a deal and reopen the Hormuz.

Oil & Energy81d ago

Trump Says Gulf Allies Push Iran Talks as US Seeks Nuclear Deal

US President Donald Trump on Tuesday said Middle Eastern allies are pushing for continued negotiations with Iran as the US seeks to block Tehran's nuclear ambitions.Trump made the remarks while interacting with reporters during a visit to the ballroom construction site."We have to make sure that Iran doesn't get a nuclear weapon," Trump said, adding that the US may deliver "another big hit" if negotiations collapse.Trump said Gulf countries recently contacted the White House and told him they had "made a lot of progress" in ongoing talks with Tehran.He added that Saudi Arabia, Qatar, UAE, Kuwait and Bahrain are helping negotiate with Iran. "We're all working together," Trump said, adding that they were working as a team along with Israel.Trump said recent strikes severely weakened Iran's military, adding "their missiles are 82% gone," while much of the country's naval and air force capacity has also been destroyed."One way or the other, whether it's military or an agreement," Trump said, noting that the issue will be resolved soon."President Xi has promised me that he's not sending any weapons to Iran," Trump said, while adding that China wants the Strait of Hormuz to remain open because it receives 40% of its oil through the route.Trump said Iran has treated the Strait of Hormuz as a geopolitical weapon for decades, adding, "I want it open, and we'll get it open."The US President said gasoline prices could rise temporarily during the conflict, although the administration remains focused on preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons.Growing oil shipments from Texas, Louisiana and Alaska should help stabilize energy supplies, adding "there is so much oil out there," Trump said."I thought the market would go down 25% and I was okay with that," Trump said, adding that preventing a "nuclear holocaust" outweighed market concerns.

Oil & Energy81d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Falls After Trump Called Off Iran Strike

EMEA crude futures dropped in after-hours trading on Tuesday after President Trump said he would postpone a planned military strike on Iran following requests from Middle Eastern leaders, a decision that eased fears of an imminent supply disruption.Brent crude futures slipped by 1.01% to $110.98 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were down 1.79% to $106.35/bbl."The oil market continues to trade in wide ranges, and it remains extremely sensitive to Iran-related headlines amid current supply disruptions," ING strategists said in a note Tuesday.On Tuesday, Trump called off a planned attack on Iran after the heads of three regional powers in the Middle East asked him to "hold off."The US President told reporters on Tuesday that he was "an hour away" from deciding whether to attack Iran before he was convinced to postpone the strike for a few days."What seems to be a pattern is that Trump states something like "very good negotiations going on with Iran", "New leaders in Iran are great", "Great progress in negotiations", "Deal in sight", etc whenever the Brent M1 contract trades above $110/bbl," Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research, said, noting that this is an effort to cool the market.Fueling bearish sentiment, NATO is reportedly considering helping vessels pass through the Strait of Hormuz if the strategic waterway isn't reopened by early July.Though a fragile ceasefire was reached in April, tensions between Iran and the US continue, with Tehran keeping the Hormuz closed, while Washington continues to blockade Iranian ports.The US Navy has redirected 88 Iran-linked commercial vessels and disabled four others since imposing the blockade on April 13, the US Central Command said in a social media post on Tuesday.Iran unveiled a new body, the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority, on Monday to oversee activities related to the Strait of Hormuz. The agency said it would issue guidance to vessels transiting the waterway, including emails outlining passage rules and regulations.Saxo Bank strategist said traffic via the Strait remains only a fraction of pre-war levels, despite the waterway accounting for about one-fifth of global oil supply.Meanwhile, the US sanctioned over 50 entities, including oil and gas tankers as well as an Iranian foreign currency exchange, in its continued bid to get Tehran to agree to a deal and reopen the Hormuz.On the supply front, the US extended a sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian seaborne oil for another 30 days on Monday to support vulnerable countries while the US works on issuing more specific licenses where required.The measure is intended to help stabilize physical crude markets and ensure oil supplies continue to reach countries facing acute energy security risks, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in a social media post.

Oil & Energy81d ago

US Sanctions More Entities, Individuals Over Iran Oil Sales

The US sanctioned more than 50 companies, individuals, and vessels tied to what it called Iran's "shadow banking" and shipping networks, as the Trump administration steps up its economic pressure against Tehran, the Treasury Department said on Tuesday.The US Treasury said the measures targeted Iranian foreign exchange networks that facilitate billions of dollars in transactions for sanctioned banks and entities linked to Iran's petroleum and petrochemical trade.The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklisted 19 vessels accused of transporting Iranian oil, liquefied petroleum gas, methanol, and other petrochemical products to foreign buyers.OFAC said the sanctioned vessels include the Barbados-flagged LPG tanker GREAT SAIL, the Panama-flagged crude tanker MIDAS, and the Vanuatu-flagged tanker FEADSHIP, which Treasury said had transported millions of barrels of Iranian oil or petrochemical products since 2025.The Department also sanctioned shipping companies registered in jurisdictions including Hong Kong, the Marshall Islands, Liberia, and Panama, accusing them of operating in Iran's petroleum or petrochemical sectors.The US said Iran continued to rely on non-Iranian-flagged vessels and complex financial networks to evade sanctions and sustain oil exports.The Treasury sanctioned Amin Exchange, accusing it of helping blacklisted Iranian banks and exporters move hundreds of millions of dollars through front companies in jurisdictions including the UAE, Turkey, and Hong Kong.Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent said that as the US dismantles Tehran's shadow banking system and shadow fleet, financial institutions must be alert to the regime's manipulation of the international financial system.The exchange house worked with entities including the National Iranian Oil Company, Persian Gulf Petrochemical Industry Commercial Company, and Triliance Petrochemical, the OFAC said in a statement.The US also hit with sanctions eight alleged front companies based in China, Hong Kong, and the UAE that it said helped facilitate payments tied to Iran's petroleum and petrochemical sectors.Meanwhile, Treasury Secretary Bessent called on US allies to tighten sanctions enforcement against Iran and dismantle its shadow-banking and front-company networks.Speaking at the "No Money for Terror" conference, Bessent said that sanctions and enforcement actions had disrupted tens of billions of dollars in projected Iranian oil revenues.

Oil & Energy81d ago

Global Power Demand Surge Strengthens Renewable Energy Outlook, BNEF Says

Solar power will become the world's largest electricity source by 2032 as rising energy demand accelerates electrification and renewable investment, according to a BloombergNEF analysis on Tuesday.BloombergNEF said in its annual New Energy Outlook report that growing electricity use from data centers, electric vehicles, rising incomes and population growth will continue lifting global power demand over the coming years.The analysis said recent energy shocks, including the Covid-19 pandemic, the Ukraine war and tensions in the Persian Gulf, are encouraging countries to reduce fossil fuel dependence.The analysis used two outlooks, including an Economic Transition Scenario based on market trends and a Net-Zero Scenario built around climate pledges.Under the Economic Transition Scenario, solar power will outpace coal in 2032, while wind energy will become the second-largest electricity source by 2034.BloombergNEF increased its global battery storage outlook to 2,000 gigawatts by 2035 from 220 GW projected for 2025 as renewable energy capacity expands.China will continue leading battery deployment over the next few decades, while India and Europe will sharply increase storage demand beginning in the 2030s, the analysis said.The world remains off track to meet the Paris Agreement target of limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius as emissions continue rising across India, Southeast Asia and Latin America.Under the Economic Transition Scenario, global temperatures will rise 2.4 degrees Celsius by 2050, the analysis said.The outlook expects China's emissions to decline after peaking in 2025, although global temperatures could still rise above 1.8 degrees Celsius even under a net-zero pathway by 2050.BloombergNEF expects annual energy transition spending under its Economic Transition Scenario to climb 34% from $2.3 trillion in 2025 to $3.1 trillion later this decade.The Net-Zero Scenario would require yearly investment to increase further to $4.8 trillion to support global climate targets, according to the analysis.BloombergNEF said electric vehicle adoption will help oil demand peak around 2029, while natural gas consumption will continue growing through 2050 and overtake oil in the 2040s.The analysis said nearly $500 billion has flowed into carbon removal, advanced batteries and geothermal technologies, although none have reached commercial scale.

Oil & Energy81d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Edges Lower After Trump Postpones Strike on Iran

Oil prices eased on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that he paused a planned military strike on Iran at Qatar's request.Brent crude futures fell 0.7% to $111.32 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate oil futures were steady at $108.76/bbl."Developments in the Middle East continue to dictate oil price action, with the market remaining sensitive to any Iran-related headlines," ING analysts said.Saxo Bank analysts noted that the sudden downward shift in market momentum was directly triggered by a Truth Social post from President Trump, who stated, "Have been asked by Qatar to hold off the Iran attack, which was scheduled for tomorrow."However, the fundamental physical landscape remains severely constrained.Transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, continues to operate at only a small fraction of its pre-war baseline.The physical toll of these prolonged disruptions is already manifesting heavily in Asian downstream processing volumes.Fresh macroeconomic data out of China underscores a sharp contraction in the domestic oil sector.According to ING, Chinese refineries processed 13.35 million barrels per day of crude oil in April.This represents a 5.8% year-on-year decline and marks the lowest crude throughput level for the world's largest oil importer since August 2024, confirming that supply-driven bottlenecks and high import costs are actively curbing global demand, ING added.

Oil & Energy81d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Despite Trump's Optimism on Deal With Iran

European natural gas futures rose on Tuesday, even after US President Donald Trump called off strikes against Iran, while expressing optimism regarding a potential peace deal with the country.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 1.5% to 51.03 euros ($59.27) per megawatt hour by late trade, while the UK front-month NBP contract was up 1.2% at 124.8 pence ($1.67).In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump said that he was asked to "hold off on our planned Military attack" against Iran by the leaders of several Arab states.This comes after Iran shared a new 14-point proposal with the US via a Pakistani mediator on Monday, according to a report by the state news agency Tasnim.While speaking to reporters at a White House event on Monday, Trump said this was a "very positive development" while acknowledging that he was unsure if it would amount to anything. He also said that there was "a good chance" of a deal with Tehran in the coming days.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the 12th week running, with just 8 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, European gas markets have continued to tighten, as more flows get rerouted to Asia, where supply constraints due to the Middle East conflict have been felt the most.He also noted that the situation was "exacerbated by potential disruptions to Australian supplies" amid the wave of strikes and work bans at Inpex's Ichthys liquefied natural gas facility.All of this comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with gas inventory replacement slow with reserves at 35.56% of capacity compared to 44.43% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Similarly, inventory levels are significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.1% of capacity, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy81d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Slides as Trump Pauses Planned Iran Strike

Oil futures dipped on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump suspended a scheduled military attack on Iran easing the geopolitical risk premium.Brent crude futures fell 1.6% to $110.32 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were down 1.3% to $106.86/bbl.Analysts noted that the sudden downward shift in market momentum was directly triggered by a Truth Social post from President Trump, who stated, "Have been asked by Qatar to hold off the Iran attack, which was scheduled for tomorrow.""No ships have reportedly left Iran's main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal," Saxo Bank analysts said.The US extended a key sanctions waiver that expired over the weekend, authorizing the sale of stranded Russian oil currently floating at sea for an additional 30 days.The emergency extension permits these sales until June 17, a policy pivot explicitly designed to stabilize international energy markets amid catastrophic aggregate losses in the Persian Gulf.This regulatory extension will provide substantial relief to Asian refining hubs, which carry the highest structural exposure to the ongoing Middle Eastern shipping blockade.However, the fundamental physical landscape remains severely constrained.Transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, continues to operate at only a small fraction of its pre-war baseline.The physical toll of these prolonged disruptions is already manifesting heavily in Asian downstream processing volumes.Fresh macroeconomic data out of China underscores a sharp contraction in the domestic oil sector.According to analysis from ING, Chinese refineries processed 13.35 million barrels per day of crude oil in April.This represents a 5.8% year-on-year decline and marks the lowest crude throughput level for the world's largest oil importer since August 2024, confirming that supply-driven bottlenecks and high import costs are actively curbing global demand, ING added.

Oil & Energy81d ago

Market Chatter: India Raises Retail Fuel Prices Amid Middle East Supply Shock

State-run oil marketing companies in India executed a secondary retail fuel price hike on Tuesday, raising petrol and diesel by up to 90 paise ($0.01) per litre, Reuters reported.This follows a larger 3 rupee per litre price increase implemented last Friday, which ended a four-year retail price freeze dating back to April 2022.A severe escalation in global crude oil benchmarks sparked by conflict in the Middle East has heavily penalized nation's energy import-dependent economy.Despite the 3.90 Indian rupee per litre cumulative hike within a week, the Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas confirmed that Indian OMCs continue to operate under staggering financial strain, as per the report.Crucially, the federal government has affirmed it has no structural plans to deploy fiscal subsidies or financial safety nets to insulate these state-backed refiners, the report added.Market analysts note that the OMCs absorbed deep margin compressions over recent months to shield consumers prior to key state assembly elections, it said.Following the conclusion of the polls, OMCs are now expected to implement a multi-phase, staggered pricing trajectory reminiscent of the post-COVID strategy of April 2022 to gradually recover downstream margins without triggering a massive macroeconomic inflationary shock.The OMCs did not respond immediately to' requests for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy82d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Barely Change as Hopes of US-Iran Peace Deal Rekindle

European natural gas futures were mixed on Tuesday amid renewed hopes of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, after US President Donald Trump held off on military strikes against the nation.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 0.14% to 50.320 euros ($58.55) per megawatt hour by late trade, while the UK front-month NBP contract was down 0.04% at 123.250 pence ($1.65).In a Truth Social post on Monday, Trump said that he was requested to "hold off on our planned Military attack" against Iran by the leaders of several Arab states, as serious negotiations were now taking place.This comes following Iran sharing a new 14-point proposal with the US, via a Pakistani mediator on Monday, according to a report by state news agency Tasnim.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz remained effectively closed for the 12th week running, with just 8 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, European gas markets have continued to tighten, as more flows get rerouted to Asia, where supply constraints due to the Middle East conflict have been felt the most.He also noted that the situation was "exacerbated by potential disruptions to Australian supplies" amid the wave of strikes and work bans at Inpex's Ichthys liquefied natural gas facility.All of this comes at a critical juncture for European markets, with gas inventories at depleted levels, at just 35.56% of capacity, compared to 44.43% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Similarly, inventory levels are significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 50.1% of capacity, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy82d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Falls After US Halts Iran Strike, Extends Russian Waiver

Crude benchmarks fell on Tuesday as geopolitical risk premiums eased after US President Donald Trump announced a suspension of a scheduled military attack on Iran.Brent crude futures fell 1.5% to $110.42 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were down 1.5% to $106.62/bbl.Analysts noted that the sudden downward shift in market momentum was directly triggered by a Truth Social post from Trump."No ships have reportedly left Iran's main export terminal during the past 10 days, potentially increasing the prospects for a deal," Saxo Bank analysts said.Meanwhile, the US extended a key sanctions waiver that expired over the weekend, authorizing the sale of stranded Russian oil currently floating at sea for an additional 30 days.The emergency extension permits these sales until June 17. This regulatory extension will provide substantial relief to Asian refining hubs, which carry the highest structural exposure to the ongoing shipping blockade.However, the fundamental physical landscape remains severely constrained.Transit through the critical Strait of Hormuz, the choke point for roughly one-fifth of global oil supply, continues to operate at only a small fraction of its pre-war baseline.The physical toll of these prolonged disruptions is already manifesting heavily in Asian downstream processing volumes.Fresh macroeconomic data out of China underscores a sharp contraction in the domestic oil sector.According to ING analysts, Chinese refineries processed 13.35 million barrels per day of crude oil in April.This represents a 5.8% year-on-year decline and marks the lowest crude throughput level for the world's largest oil importer since August 2024, confirming that supply-driven bottlenecks and high import costs are actively curbing global demand, ING added.

Oil & Energy82d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Settle Higher After Trump Says Planned Iran Attack Put on Hold

Crude futures rose in after-hours trading on Monday after President Trump called off a planned US military strike on Iran, easing immediate fears of a wider conflict in the Middle East while leaving markets cautious over the outlook for regional crude supplies.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures climbed 1.74% to $107.25 per barrel, while Brent futures were up 0.41% to $109.28 /bbl."The US and Iran remained far apart on a deal to end weeks of war and reopen the crucial Strait of Hormuz, with President Trump saying the clock is ticking for Iran," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note on Monday.Trump called off a planned attack on Iran on Tuesday after the heads of three regional powers in the Middle East asked him to "hold off."The US President said the leaders of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the US told him serious negotiations are underway with Iran that will result in a deal acceptable to Washington.However, Trump instructed the Pentagon "to be prepared to go forward with a full, large-scale assault of Iran, on a moment's notice, in the event that an acceptable deal is not reached."Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi said that any possible agreement with the US must ensure an end to the ongoing conflict on all fronts and lift the blockade and sanctions imposed against the country.ING strategists said Monday that the ongoing supply disruptions mean the market has had to rely largely on inventory and, where possible, on alternative supply, including Russian crude.Fundamental differences between the US and Iran remain unresolved, with Tehran demanding the return of frozen assets to the Iranian people and dismissing Washington's nuclear demands as political excuses.On the supply front, the International Energy Agency executive director, Fatih Birol, said on Monday that commercial oil inventories were depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks' worth left due to the ongoing Middle East conflict and the closure of the Hormuz.Birol, who is participating in the Group of Seven finance leaders meeting in Paris, told reporters that the release of strategic oil reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but said these reserves "are not endless."Meanwhile, Kpler said the US downstream operations are running at full capacity as refiners respond to tightening global fuel balances and surging export demand.Refinery utilization is averaging almost 93%, supported by strong distillate and gasoline margins, lighter maintenance schedules, and rising reliance on Atlantic Basin supply, Kpler strategists said in a note on Monday.Though a fragile ceasefire was reached in April, tensions between Iran and the US continue, with Tehran keeping the Hormuz closed, while Washington continues to blockade Iranian ports.On Monday, Iran unveiled a new body, the Persian Gulf Strait Affairs Authority, to oversee activities related to the Strait.

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Oil & Energy81d ago