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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Falls After US, Iran Conclude Peace Talks in Doha

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EMEA crude futures tumbled for a third consecutive session in after-hours trading on Thursday, as the US and Iran concluded peace talks in Doha with an agreement aimed at easing the Middle East conflict and easing concerns over potential supply disruptions.

Brent crude futures retreated by 0.64% to $68.14 per barrel, while Murban crude futures tumbled by 2.3% to $64.15/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said that Brent extended its slide towards pre-war levels as flows through the Strait of Hormuz continued to recover, while signs of progress in US-Iran talks further eased supply risks.

On Wednesday, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan concluded separate meetings with US and Iranian negotiators in Doha, Majed Al Ansari, Qatar's foreign ministry spokesperson, said in a social media post on X.

Al Ansari said "positive progress" was made on issues related to the memorandum of understanding.

The next meeting between Iran and US negotiators will take place after July 9, the funeral processions for Iran's late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

Earlier on Wednesday, President Trump said that the US was getting along very well with Iran and that recent meetings in Qatar went well.

Trump told reporters that the two sides had very constructive meetings, "and we'll see how it develops," adding that crude prices have come down significantly, now at about $68/bbl.

The renewed push for a permanent peace deal follows tit-for-tat military strikes between the US and Iran over the weekend, which threatened to jeopardize a 60-day truce between the two countries.

Alexandre Andlauer, senior global energy analyst at Kpler, said that crude extended its post-MOU rout as accelerating Hormuz transits and clearing stranded barrels pushed Dubai deeper into contango and Brent into the mid-$70s.

Traffic through the strategic waterway continued despite tensions over the weekend, with 34 verified crossings recorded on June 30, according to Kpler, with traffic evenly balanced at 17 vessels in each direction.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude shipments through the waterway have recovered to over 10 million b/d, while UAE exports have returned to pre-war levels, reinforcing expectations of improving regional supply.

Meanwhile, Iran's military warns that interference in the Strait will receive a 'swift and decisive response'.

The Strait of Hormuz is not a "playground" for the US, but falls under the "indisputable sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran," the military command said, adding that the security and stability of the key chokepoint are a red line.

OPEC+ countries are set to agree on a further output hike from August, when the producer group meets on Sunday, adding supply at a time of falling prices amid the gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

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