Crude prices extended losses as improved shipping through the Strait of Hormuz weighed on oil markets, while refined products and European power outperformed, Kpler said in a note on Thursday.
Following the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, Brent fell 6.1% to about $75.7 per barrel and West Texas Intermediate declined 5.4%.
Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz reached its highest daily level since the conflict began, Kpler said.
Non-Iranian crude stored in the Gulf fell to 64 million barrels from 82.6 million, while Iranian exports recovered above 840,000 b/d under the 60-day waiver.
The Dubai first-to-third-month spread also moved into a $1.12-per-barrel contango, Kpler said.
A market in contango points to a surplus of spot supply amid weak spot demand, reflecting bearish market sentiment. In a contango structure, futures prices trade higher than spot prices.
West Texas Intermediate outperformed other crude benchmarks as inventories at Cushing fell below 19 million barrels, their lowest level in a decade. US crude stocks also dropped below the five-year range for the first time this year, supporting time spreads.
Kpler said improving Hormuz shipping remains the main bearish driver for crude markets and could push global oil balances into a surplus during Q4.
Refined products traded mixed. Gasoil gained 3.2% and reformulated gasoline blendstock rose 2.5%, while Northwest European naphtha slipped 0.3% and Singapore fuel oil declined 0.6%, Kpler added.
Middle distillate prices strengthened as traders priced in potential supply disruptions after Russia raised the possibility of an export ban and Ukrainian drone attacks shut about 2.5 million b/d of crude distillation capacity, Kpler said.
Low water levels on Germany's Rhine River also disrupted fuel transportation, while the June 30 expiry of the fuel tax added further support to prices, the note said.
Western gasoline margins improved as inventories remained about 5% below the five-year average and demand from Mexico stayed firm. US jet fuel production also reached record levels of 2.2 million b/d at a 12.9% yield.
European power prices climbed as a heatwave, weaker wind generation and river temperature limits at French nuclear plants tightened electricity supplies. Temperatures ran 3 to 5 degrees Celsius above seasonal levels, Kpler said.
River temperature restrictions could affect as much as 6.5 gigawatts of nuclear capacity across Blayais, Bugey, Golfech, Nogent and Saint-Alban.
German baseload power rose 3.1%, while Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas gained 1.2%, according to the note.
Dutch Title Transfer Facility gas advanced despite storage reaching 47.2% and the recovering Atlantic liquefied natural gas supply, as renewed vessel attacks in the Middle East raised supply concerns.
Japan-Korea Marker slipped 0.3% but drew support from stronger South Korean restocking and weaker Chinese output, while Henry Hub fell 2.2% on profit-taking despite hot US weather, Kpler said.