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Crude Under Pressure in Near-Term; Analysts Warn of Logistical Hurdles Ahead

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Global crude prices are poised to face continued near-term pressure as mechanics of US-Iran diplomatic peace deal begin to play out, triggering an immediate influx of stranded cargoes and rising spot sales into the Asian market, analysts said.

While financial markets have rushed to price out the conflict's geopolitical risk premium, major Gulf oil producers have warned that reclaiming baseline output capacity will not be a sudden event.

The market is currently caught between a prompt physical supply shock and near-term operational friction, market experts have noted.

According to Muyu Xu, senior crude oil analyst at Kpler, benchmark prices still have room to decline by another couple of dollars in the near term.

This soft bias is driven by the release of stranded Persian Gulf cargoes alongside a sudden rise in prompt spot sales from producers including the UAE, Kuwait, and Qatar.

This localized supply bulge is hitting the market just as most Asian buyers have already covered their requirements for August, and while broader Chinese demand has yet to show a meaningful recovery, XU added.

Xu anticipated that Brent prices will largely remain capped within a $70 to $80 per barrel range unless Chinese refining activity accelerates or diplomatic talks face unexpected delays.

Compounding this near-term pressure is the logistical reality of restarting the region's maritime trade.

Abhishek Kumar, senior oil market analyst at Sparta, noted that while producers can restore the first wave of shut-in barrels relatively quickly if the Strait of Hormuz remains reliably open, full capacity normalization hinges on a complex tanker cycle.

Empty vessels currently stacked outside the Gulf must safely transit the waterway, load from port storage to free up internal tank space, and clear the area before sustained upstream production can ramp up in an orderly manner.

"Brent looks headline-driven for now, with a soft bias if implementation goes smoothly, but clear upside risk if there is any delay, tanker incident, insurance issue, toll dispute or renewed regional escalation," Kumar told.

Middle East energy majors, notably Saudi Aramco, Adnoc, QatarEnergy, Kuwait Oil Company, and Iraq's SOMO, did not immediately responded to' request for comments.

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