Hormuz Reopening Faces 'Stop-Start' Recovery as Backlog Clears, Kpler Says
Commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is set for a cautious, staggered revival following a weekend agreement between the US and Iran, but a full restoration of trade remains months away, according to Kpler's note on Tuesday.The peace deal, which aims to formally reopen the Hormuz on June 19, marks a transition from a total blockade to a "first-mover" phase for the shipping industry.However, Kpler strategists said that the return of commercial vessels will be defined by a one-off clearing of backlogged cargo rather than an immediate return to pre-war normalcy.The immediate priority for operators will be to clear a bottleneck of 118 laden tankers currently trapped in the Gulf after over 100 days of disruptions.Kpler projected that the backlog could be cleared within 10 to 15 days, providing what the report calls a "visible jump" in transit figures that may initially be mistaken for a broader market recovery.Matthew Wright, lead freight analyst at Kpler, said the deal nudges the Strait from a restricted phase into a first-movers phase, but unresolved terms cap how quickly vessels actually re-enter.Kpler, in its base-case scenario, said the real challenge lies in the pace at which new vessels enter the Gulf after the backlog is cleared.The consultancy firm projects a slow, non-linear recovery, with daily transits gradually rising from 15 to 40 by the end of the first month, which is about 50% below pre-war levels of 90-100 daily bulk commodity transits.The path to normalization faces significant hurdles, Kpler analysts said. Market participants are still grappling with whether the Strait has been mined, whether Iran retains de facto operational control, and how any transit tolls would be structured and collected.The analysts said each of these factors directly influences war-risk insurance pricing and vessel deployment decisions.Industry participants are also expected to remain cautious even in the absence of active hostilities. Kpler said insurance coverage, typically slower to adjust than geopolitical developments, may lag by weeks, while freight rates are likely to remain elevated to compensate for residual risk.The consultancy said that any implementation disputes, particularly around policing authority, routing requirements, or sanctions exposure linked to transit fees, could trigger plateaus or even temporary reversals in recovery momentum.Analysts said the result is likely to be a non-linear normalization process. Rather than a smooth return to pre-crisis flows, the Hormuz is projected to see stepwise recovery punctuated by pauses as confidence thresholds are repeatedly tested.Structural divergence between vessel classes is expected to persist even after an agreement, with tankers likely to recover ahead of dry bulk, container, and LNG carriers, masking uneven conditions beneath headline transit figures.