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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Hits Lowest Since March as Peace Hopes Erase Risk Premium

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Oil futures declined further on Tuesday after US President Donald Trump announced a preliminary memorandum of understanding with Iran to halt the Middle East war and completely reopen the Strait of Hormuz by Friday.

The Brent futures contract fell 0.5% at $82.72 per barrel. Murban futures closed at its lowest since March 4 at $77.23/bbl on June 15 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.

Analysts said that the selloff was triggered by Trump's announcement that Washington and Tehran have signed a preliminary memorandum of understanding to end the US-Israeli war with Iran, which had severely restricted regional energy flows for over three months.

Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast by $10 to $80 per barrel and slashed its 2027 average estimate to $75 from $80.

However, "Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said transits would be free of charge for 60 days. Nevertheless, full details of the agreement are yet to be released, with US and Iranian narratives differing," ANZ noted.

Analysts also said that the physical recovery of regional oil supplies will face significant friction and could take months to materialize.

The US is removing its blockade, and Iran is reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping under Iranian and Omani oversight. Shipping firms, however, continue to seek assurances that mines no longer threaten the route, according to TPH Energy.

The oil market now awaits US crude inventory data to assess supply and demand picture.

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