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EMEA Oil Update: Oil Extends Decline as Trump Claims Friday Hormuz Reopening

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Oil prices fell on Tuesday after President Donald Trump reportedly claimed at the G7 meeting that that the blockaded Strait of Hormuz will be completely open by Friday.

Front-month Murban crude futures fell 5.8% to $72.78 per barrel, while Brent futures declined more than 4% to $79.79/bbl.

According to Al Jazeera, Trump claimed that the Strait of Hormuz will be "completely open by Friday."

Trump also pushed back against potential skepticism regarding the deal's fine print, promising absolute transparency.

"I'll not only release it, I'll probably have a press conference and read it... word by word so that the press covers it accurately," Trump reportedly said regarding the MoU text.

Meanwhile, Reuters reported that Goldman Sachs lowered its Q4 2026 Brent crude price forecast by $10 to $80 per barrel and slashed its 2027 average estimate to $75 from $80.

However, "Iran's semi-official Fars news agency said transits would be free of charge for 60 days. Nevertheless, full details of the agreement are yet to be released, with US and Iranian narratives differing," ANZ noted.

Analysts also said that the physical recovery of regional oil supplies will face significant friction and could take months to materialize.

The US is removing its blockade, and Iran is reopening the Strait of Hormuz to commercial shipping under Iranian and Omani oversight. Shipping firms, however, continue to seek assurances that mines no longer threaten the route, according to TPH Energy.

The oil market now awaits US crude inventory data to assess supply and demand picture.

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