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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Pulls Back as Trump Abandons 20% Hormuz Toll Fee

EMEA crude futures retreated from earlier highs in after-hours trading on Tuesday after President Trump abandoned a proposal to impose a 20% protection fee on cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, as more vessels in the strategic waterway come under Iranian attack.Brent crude futures jumped by 5.7% to $80.31 per barrel, while Murban crude futures advanced by 6.8% to $75.77/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said rather than focusing on immediate disruptions in the Hormuz, traders are assessing how sustained restrictions on Iranian crude could tighten export availability over the coming months, particularly for Asian buyers that had relied on discounted barrels.On Tuesday, Trump said that the US has abandoned plans to impose a 20% protection fee on vessels transiting the Hormuz, saying Gulf states would instead increase trade and investment with Washington."Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with Trade and Investment Deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States," Trump said in a Truth Social post.Trump's reversal comes a day after he floated the 20% plan, which contradicted his administration's past opposition to tolls in the Strait.The International Maritime Organization, a UN agency, opposes mandatory tolls in the key energy chokepoint as illegal.Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said on Monday that while Trump was correct in principle that countries responsible for ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels should receive compensation, Tehran remains the historic guardian of the strategic waterway.Iran fired missiles at Jordan, Bahrain and Kuwait on Tuesday after the US launched an attack on Tehran on Monday at President Trump's direction, stepping up a battle for control of the Hormuz.The security situation in the key has deteriorated over the past week as Iran has attacked commercial ships.Jeff LeBlanc, an analyst at TPH Energy, said that tensions have continued to escalate over the past 48 hours, with the US and Iran continuing to launch sweeping retaliatory strikes on each other.Earlier on Tuesday, the UAE said two of its tankers were struck while transiting the waterway's southern shipping lane. Adnoc Logistics and Services, the shipping arm of Adnoc, said the two oil tankers that were attacked suffered significant damage.LeBlanc said Hormuz traffic was already suppressed on Sunday, and deadly Iranian strikes on two UAE oil tankers will likely bring traffic to an effective standstill, resetting the stalemate.Meanwhile, Russian energy supplies have also been disrupted as Ukraine steps up attacks on Moscow's energy infrastructure.Ukraine's Ministry of Defense said on Tuesday that its forces struck two Russian oil refineries overnight, targeting the Salavat and Afipsky facilities with a combined processing capacity of about 16 million tonnes per year.The attacks also hit a transshipment site near Gelendzhik and 11 vessels in the Sea of Azov, including tankers used to move Russian oil.

Oil & Energy24d ago

Trump Says Gulf Investment Deals Replace Hormuz Fee Proposal, Signals More Iran Sanctions

US President Donald Trump said Tuesday he had abandoned his plan to charge a transit fee on ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, while signaling possible additional sanctions on Iran and outlining a stronger US-Iraq energy partnership.Trump made the remarks during a bilateral meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi at the White House.He said that he had dropped his proposal to charge vessels a fee for using the Strait of Hormuz after Gulf allies offered to expand investment in the US instead."The Gulf states are going to invest a tremendous amount of money into the United States, and that was very satisfactory to me," Trump said.Trump said he gave Iran an opportunity to reach an agreement before blaming Tehran for derailing negotiations."I wanted to give them a chance at making a deal... We had a deal two days ago. It was done... and they shot first, and that was a big mistake," Trump said.Trump said lawmakers are considering expanding pending Russia sanctions legislation to include Iran and Hezbollah."They may be adding Iran to it... they may add Hezbollah too," he said.On Iraq, Trump said US oil companies are rapidly expanding partnerships in Iraq as bilateral ties shift from military cooperation to economic engagement."The oil companies are all going in now, and they're doing partnerships with Iraq," he said, adding, "We don't think we need the military there anymore."On Iran, Trump said Tehran had previously burdened Iraq but no longer poses the same threat after recent military setbacks."Iran was a big burden on Iraq," Trump said, adding its military capability is "just a tiny fraction of what it was just four months ago."Asked about Iraq's role in the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, Iraqi Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi said Iraq is seeking a fair share of production as one of OPEC's founding members.

Oil & Energy24d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Extend Rally on Renewed Conflict, Storage Concerns

European natural gas futures extended Monday's rally in after-hours trading, rising almost 4.7% on Tuesday as renewed US-Iran hostilities and uncertainty over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz fueled concerns over LNG supply flows.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 4.651% to 53.660 euros ($61.34) per megawatt-hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 4.752% to 130.05 British pence ($1.74) per therm.Prices reached their highest levels in three and a half months, Montel reported.The gains followed a sharp escalation in tensions between Washington and Tehran, with the US and Iran exchanging military strikes over the past 48 hours after Iran moved to enforce the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.US President Donald Trump on Tuesday posted on Truth Social that the US had abandoned plans, announced a day earlier, to impose a 20% fee on vessels transiting the strait, replacing the measure with trade and investment commitments from Gulf states.Trump said that the US-imposed naval blockade in Iran will be retained.The developments have increased uncertainty about the ability of LNG cargoes to transit the strategic waterway and the conditions under which they can do so, making it more challenging for Europe to rebuild gas inventories ahead of the winter heating season.Gas Infrastructure Europe put EU gas storage levels at 52.25% of capacity on Tuesday, compared with 63.02% a year earlier. Celsius Energy estimated EU inventories at 2,009 billion cubic feet, or 589 Bcf below the five-year average.Analysts said European gas prices could rise above 100 euros/MWh, roughly double current levels, if the region experiences a severe winter while storage levels remain near five-year lows. However, the risk of physical supply shortages remains limited, Montel reported on Tuesday.

Oil & Energy24d ago

Strait of Hormuz Traffic Near Standstill as US-Iran Conflict Intensifies, TPH Says

Brent crude has climbed about 15% since Friday as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten a wider conflict and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, TPH Energy said in a note on Tuesday.The US and Iran have exchanged retaliatory strikes over the past 48 hours after Tehran enforced its Strait of Hormuz closure. President Donald Trump also said the US would control the waterway, charge for protecting vessels and reinstate the US blockade.Washington also struck Iran on Monday and Tuesday after accusing Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding, while both sides continued restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating tensions, TPH Energy said.Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had already slowed sharply by Sunday as both sides tightened restrictions on vessel movements.Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for Monday's attacks on two UAE oil tankers, with the strikes causing significant damage and likely bringing commercial traffic close to a standstill outside of dark fleet operations, TPH Energy said.TPH Energy said the renewed standoff differs from earlier episodes because Iran now has greater capacity to withstand a renewed US blockade.Markets also weighed reports that Trump was considering strikes on an inland Iranian nuclear facility while Houthi forces targeted Saudi Arabia's Abha airport, developments that have further heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, TPH Energy said.

Oil & Energy24d ago

Trump Replaces 20% Hormuz Shipping Reimbursement Plans, Maintains Blockade on Iran-Linked Ships

President Trump said on Tuesday that the US has abandoned plans to impose a 20% protection fee on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, adding that Gulf states would instead increase trade and investment with Washington."Based on highly productive conversations with Middle East leadership, I have decided to replace the 20% United States Reimbursement Fee with trade and investment deals that the various Gulf States will be making into the United States," Trump said in a social media post.Trump's reversal comes a day after he floated the idea, saying direct investments from Gulf states in the US would replace the toll fee. However, he did not specify the value of the investment or which countries would participate.The US President noted that oil is flowing like "never before" and declared that the Strait of Hormuz was now open to all commercial vessels, except those traveling to or from Iranian ports or carrying Iranian cargo, while crediting the US military for securing the strategic waterway."We will ... have a full blockade, but only on ships coming to and from Iranian ports, or carrying anything have to do with Iranian cargo," Trump said in his post.He did not provide details on how the restrictions would be enforced or the legal framework underpinning the measures.The Hormuz, located between Iran and Oman, carries about 20% of global oil consumption as well as significant volumes of liquefied natural gas, making it one of the world's most critical energy transit routes.

Oil & Energy24d ago

Refiners Start Q3 Strong with Better Fuel Margins, Tight Inventories, TPH Says

US refiners have begun the third quarter on a strong footing, with refining margins improving across most companies as low fuel inventories and renewed tensions between the US and Iran support market conditions, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Tuesday note.Blair said company-specific refining indicators are off to a "fantastic start" about halfway through the first month of the quarter, with most refiners benefiting from stronger product cracks and favorable crude market dynamics.Among the large-cap refiners, Valero Energy (VLO) is showing the biggest improvement over the quarter, with TPH estimating refining margins have increased by about $9.15 per barrel.Blair attributed the gains to the company's significant exposure to the North Atlantic and US Gulf Coast, where refining economics have strengthened the most since the Q2.Valero is also benefiting from wider Gulf Coast crude differentials, including ASCI and Maya grades.Phillips 66 (PSX) is estimated to be up about $6.70/bbl over the quarter, supported by similar regional exposure. However, Blair said the company's performance has been somewhat constrained by higher crude prices and weaker Gulf Coast product trends.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is estimated to have improved by roughly $5.95/bbl from the prior quarter. While product margins in the Chicago region have not strengthened as much as elsewhere, Blair said that has been partially offset by a more favorable structure in the WTI crude market.Among small- and mid-cap refiners, Delek US Holdings (DK) stands out as the strongest performer, with TPH estimating a quarter-over-quarter improvement of about $13.60/bbl.Blair cited the company's Gulf Coast product exposure, wider Midland crude differentials and improved WTI market structure as key drivers.CVR Energy (CVI) is also seeing a substantial improvement, with estimated margins up about $9.85/bbl before accounting for renewable volume obligation costs, or about $7.34/bbl after those costs.HF Sinclair (DINO) is estimated to be up about $2.80/bbl, benefiting from stronger Group 3 gasoline cracks, although Blair noted that the company's exposure to the Rockies and Southwest has moderated from exceptionally strong Q2 levels.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) is the only refiner in TPH's coverage expected to post a quarter-over-quarter decline, with estimated margins down about $2/bbl.Blair attributed the weakness primarily to Singapore refining margins retreating from record Q2 levels, along with TPH's expectation of more challenging Hawaiian crude differentials during Q3.Price: $297.50, Change: $+1.71, Percent Change: +0.58%

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO

Oil & Energy25d ago

Natural Gas Faces Downside Risks as Oil Draws Support From US-Iran Tensions, EBW Says

Natural gas faces growing downside pressure, oil continues to draw support from geopolitical tensions, and electricity markets remain firm on seasonal demand, EBW Analytics said in a Sunday note.Natural gas fell below $3 per million British thermal units as Freeport LNG scheduled late-summer maintenance and a third straight bearish Energy Information Administration storage report accelerated weakness expected later this summer.Despite slightly hotter weekend forecasts, softer liquefied natural gas demand, limited southern heat, rising production and bearish technical signals continue to point to additional downside over the next seven to 10 days, according to EBW Analytics.Freeport LNG appeared to keep only one processing train offline, easing concerns that the entire three-train facility would shut. Even so, weaker feedgas demand continues to weigh on the market, EBW Analytics said.Lower 48 natural gas production climbed to its highest level so far in July as Permian output strengthened, while storage reached 185 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.Technical indicators now suggest prices could test the low $2.80s/MMBtu, according to EBW Analytics.EBW Analytics expects medium-term pressure to persist as Permian infrastructure lifts supply, few new liquefied natural gas export projects enter service and El Nino favors milder weather.However, subdued production could slow selling pressure over the next 30 to 45 days, according to the note.National electricity demand increased after the Fourth of July holiday as modeled weekly loads rose 4.1%, lifting power-sector natural gas consumption by 1.3 Bcf/d from the previous week, according to EBW Analytics.Day-ahead on-peak electricity prices remained elevated at $90.21 per megawatt-hour in PJM West and $72.41/MWh in ISO New England, while stronger wind and solar generation limited ERCOT North prices to $26.10/MWh, EBW Analytics said.Near-term heat through Wednesday and Thursday could boost power-sector natural gas demand, although mild South Central weather may cap gains at about 2.2 Bcf/d, according to EBW Analytics.Meanwhile, market participants await PJM's July 14 capacity auction results, with clearing prices widely expected near the $325/MW-day ceiling as electricity demand continues to outpace new supply, EBW Analytics said.Oil gained support after US-Iran military exchanges raised supply concerns, EBW said.Seasonal demand continues to improve, but US commercial crude inventories increased for the first time in 11 weeks. EBW Analytics still expects oil prices to trend lower into late 2026 despite near-term geopolitical support.The market has already absorbed months of supply disruption preparations, while rising global production is expected to outpace demand growth.Additional Strait of Hormuz restrictions would likely affect prompt cargoes first, before alternative supplies gradually fill the gap, EBW Analytics said.Refined products remain comparatively tight after Russia's distillate export ban lifted European crack spreads to four-year highs, while record US fuel exports continue to reduce domestic inventories, according to EBW Analytics.

Oil & Energy25d ago

US Natural Gas Nears 2027 Bottom Before Multi-Year Bull Market, TPH Says

US natural gas prices could find a fundamental floor in 2027 before entering a multi-year structural bull market driven by surging LNG exports, power demand and industrial consumption, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a Tuesday note.TPH Energy analysts said near-term fundamentals remain challenging, with the latest supply and demand model still pointing to US gas storage ending 2027 at close to 4.1 trillion cubic feet, a level that would weigh on prices if production remains resilient.However, TPH said falling forward prices are likely to force producers, particularly in the Haynesville shale, to curb drilling activity, reducing supply growth and tightening the market.Matt Portillo, an analyst at TPH, said the bank's base case for 2027 remains $3.50 per million British thermal units, but prices may need to approach $3-$3.25/MMBtu to slow production growth in gas-focused basins.The forward curve is now approaching these levels, which TPH considers a catalyst for activity to drop out of basins like the Haynesville, Portillo said.TPH said it has yet to make a significant cut to its 2027 supply forecast, leaving room for a more constructive outlook should producers respond to weaker prices.TPH currently forecasts production growth next year led by the Permian Basin, followed by the Haynesville, Eagle Ford and Anadarko basins.Meanwhile, TPH revised its LNG outlook, delaying the expected ramp-up of Golden Pass LNG while bringing forward production growth from Rio Grande LNG and Venture Global's (VG) CP2 project.Though renewable power additions are expected to temper growth in gas-fired generation over the next two years, the bank said electricity generation demand is likely to exceed its current long-term forecast of an additional 6 billion cubic feet per day through 2030.From 2028 onward, the balance is projected to shift decisively toward higher prices as new LNG export capacity comes online and domestic demand strengthens.TPH forecasts US storage will fall to around 3.5 Tcf by the end of the 2028 injection season as LNG exports from projects including Port Arthur LNG, CP2, Golden Pass and Rio Grande accelerate, alongside rising industrial demand, exports to Mexico and stronger gas-fired power generation.The brokerage expects Henry Hub prices to average about $4/MMBtu in 2028.TPH expects the full ramp-up of Gulf Coast LNG projects by 2029 and continued growth in industrial and power demand across Texas, Louisiana, and Arizona to tighten regional supply sufficiently to require demand destruction.The bank forecasts Henry Hub prices rising to about $4.50/MMBtu, with October 2029 storage falling to about 2.1 Tcf.Regional pricing dynamics are also projected to strengthen around the Gulf Coast, where hubs such as Gillis could emerge as the strongest basis market in the US because of limited supply relative to growing demand.TPH said the US Northeast is an increasingly attractive long-term market, citing industry discussions indicating regional gas demand could increase by 6-8 Bcf/d over the next five years, largely driven by data center-related power generation.Combined with proposed pipeline expansions that could add another 2-3 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity, the bank said demand growth could outpace supply increases, tightening regional basis differentials and increasing the value of long-term gas supply contracts.Price: $13.16, Change: $-0.20, Percent Change: -1.47%

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Oil & Energy25d ago

Trump Replaces 20% Hormuz Fee Plans With Gulf Investment Deals, Maintains Iran Maritime Blockade

Oil & Energy25d ago

US Drives Global LNG Trade to Record High in 2025 as Exports Surge, EIA Says

Global liquefied natural gas trade rose 5.4% to a record 56.3 billion cubic feet per day in 2025, the US Energy Information Administration said on Tuesday, citing data from the International Group of Liquefied Natural Gas Importers.This surge was driven largely by the expansion of US export capacity, which helped meet growing global demand.The US posted the largest increase in LNG exports of any country, with shipments climbing 26% from a year earlier to 15.1 Bcf/d, according to EIA's Natural Gas Monthly.The agency forecasts US LNG exports will continue to grow, reaching 17.4 Bcf/d in 2026 and 18.6 Bcf/d in 2027.US exports accounted for 26% of global LNG trade in 2025, up from 21% in 2024. Together, the US, Qatar and Australia supplied 63% of global LNG exports last year, compared with 60% a year earlier.Canada also entered the export market after LNG Canada began operations in June, shipping 0.3 Bcf/d in 2025.Qatar recorded the second-largest increase in LNG exports in 2025, with shipments rising 3% to 10.6 Bcf/d. However, EIA said global LNG trade has slowed in 2026 following the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical export route for Qatari LNG, since Feb. 28.The closure has disrupted about 20% of global LNG supplies, the agency said. Asian buyers, which imported over 80% of Qatar's LNG in 2025, are now competing with European buyers in the spot market as Europe seeks to rebuild gas storage inventories that remain below the five-year average.Several major exporters, including Malaysia, Australia and Norway, reported lower LNG exports in 2025 because of maintenance-related outages.Russian LNG exports fell 8%, or 0.4 Bcf/d, the largest volumetric decline among exporters, reflecting the impact of European Union sanctions imposed after Russia's invasion of Ukraine.Europe recorded the strongest regional growth in LNG demand, with imports rising 29%, or 3.8 Bcf/d, in 2025.The region's seven largest importers each increased purchases, up within the 0.4 Bcf/d to 0.6 Bcf/d range. EIA said the expiration of the Ukraine-Russia gas transit agreement at the end of 2024 reduced pipeline gas supplies to Europe, increasing the region's reliance on LNG.By contrast, LNG imports into Asia fell 4% to 35.7 Bcf/d. The decline was driven largely by a 15%, or 1.5 Bcf/d, drop in Chinese imports as the country expanded pipeline gas imports and increased domestic natural gas production.Egypt nearly quadrupled LNG imports in 2025, from 0.3 Bcf/d a year earlier to 1.2 Bcf/d, to offset domestic supply shortages. Bahrain and Senegal each imported their first LNG cargoes during the year, although volumes remained below 0.1 Bcf/d.LNG imports across the rest of the Middle East and Africa were broadly unchanged, while imports into the Americas declined by 0.3 Bcf/d.

Oil & Energy25d ago

Market Chatter: Rising Gulf Risks Drive Asian Refiners Back to US Spot Crude

Asian refiners have resumed negotiations for spot US crude cargoes as escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran raise concerns over Middle East oil shipments, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing three executives familiar with the discussions.Earlier talks had faded as ample Middle East crude supplies reduced demand for additional US cargoes, the report said. Buyers have since returned to the market, although bid and offer prices remain widely apart.Participants in Abu Dhabi National Oil Company's latest spot crude tender are also weighing lower bids to reflect growing shipping risks and potential demurrage costs as security concerns around the region intensify, the report added, citing two participants.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy25d ago

Market Chatter: Nigeria Expands Deepwater Tax Incentives Starting With Shell Project

Nigeria approved a production-based tax incentive for Shell's (SHEL) Bonga Southwest Aparo deepwater project, while planning to extend the benefit to other major oil companies developing new offshore projects, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing people familiar with the matter.The terms, approved by President Bola Tinubu to move the project toward a final investment decision, provide Shell and its partners with an $11.50-per-barrel rebate, more than twice the standard incentive, according to the report.Nigeria intends to keep the incentive available for new deepwater projects through at least 2029. Shell also sought publication of the order in the official gazette after concerns that future administrations or court rulings could overturn the executive order, the report added.Shell did not immediately reply to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $84.66, Change: $+0.68, Percent Change: +0.81%

$SHEL

Oil & Energy25d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Extend Gain as US Enforces Strait of Hormuz Blockade

Oil prices surged on Tuesday after the US launched strikes on Iran and enforced a naval blockade of Iranian ports, escalating regional conflict and threatening energy shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude futures jumped 3.5% to $86.24 per barrel and hit their highest since June 12. West Texas Intermediate crude futures advanced by 2.5% to $80.04/bbl and hit their highest since June 16.This surge follows US military strikes on Iranian infrastructure in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, and the refining hub of Abadan, alongside the US enforcement of a naval blockade on Iranian ports and the proposal of a 20% security fee for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.The security environment in the Strait of Hormuz has deteriorated following reports that Iranian cruise missiles struck two Emirati tankers, resulting in one death and eight injuries.Despite these disruptions and the formal cancellation of US oil sanction waivers last week, Iran reportedly claimed that the country's oil exports are continuing as planned.While ANZ warned that the renewed conflict jeopardizes recent supply recovery efforts, Macquarie suggested that substantial global supply capacity could lead to a rapid price correction should geopolitical risks subside.Meanwhile, energy markets are balancing additional pressures from other regions. The Ukrainian military reported overnight strikes on Russian oil refineries in the Bashkortostan and Krasnodar regions.Simultaneously, the European Union's failure to finalize its 21st sanctions package against Russia has created uncertainty regarding the bloc's oil price cap mechanism.If the EU does not reach an agreement by Wednesday's deadline, the price cap may rise, potentially undermining international efforts to constrain Russian oil revenues.

Oil & Energy25d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Oil Hits 1-Month High on Supply Concerns

Crude oil benchmarks hit their highest in more than a month on Tuesday as the US-Iran war escalated with further strikes on vessels and the US re-imposing a naval blockade on Iran in the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude futures jumped 4.6% to $87.17 per barrel, while Murban crude futures advanced by 6.4% to $83.16/bbl. Both contracts hit their highest since June 12.The market volatility follows a series of US military strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, including coastal positions in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, and Khuzestan province, where projectile impacts were reported in the oil-refining hub of Abadan and the port city of Mahshahr.The immediate catalyst for the upside move was the US military's move to reimpose a blockade on Iranian shipping and enforce a 20% "reimbursement" fee for all other cargo transiting the Strait of Hormuz, analysts noted."The move threatens to trigger further attacks from Iran and puts at risk the recovery of oil supplies that had begun after the US-Iran peace deal last month," ANZ analysts said.President Trump said that the US will serve as the "guardian" of the waterway, while Central Command continues a sustained campaign of strikes against Iranian military targets to degrade their ability to threaten commercial traffic."Renewed attacks in the region have ramped up safety concerns among shipowners and limited the willingness of operators to return to normal routing patterns," ANZ added.However, Macquarie said in a note that renewed tensions in the Middle East may lift oil prices in the short term, but ample global supply should drive a sharp pullback once geopolitical risks ease.Meanwhile, the EU failed to finalize its 21st sanctions package against Russia on Monday, leaving the bloc's floating oil price cap vulnerable, several media outlets reported.Without an agreement by Wednesday's deadline, the cap risks jumping well above current levels, potentially undermining efforts to curb Kremlin oil revenues, the reports noted.

Oil & Energy25d ago

Attacks on Adnoc Crude Vessels Force Heightened Alert in Hormuz

Two Very Large Crude Carriers, the Al Bahyah and the Mombasa B, were struck by projectiles while transiting the Strait of Hormuz on Tuesday, Adnoc Logistics and Services confirmed.The UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs reported that the vessels were targeted in the southern lane of the strait within Omani territorial waters, resulting in fires that have since been brought under control.Adnoc Logistics and Services, which owns the Al Bahyah and operates the time-chartered Mombasa B, confirmed the vessels sustained significant damage.The attacks resulted in the death of one Indian seafarer and left eight others injured, six Indian and two Ukrainian nationals, the UAE Ministry of Foreign Affairs confirmed.The incident marks a significant escalation in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil transit.The UAE government condemned the strike as a blatant act of aggression and stated it reserves the right to respond.This attack coincides with heightened regional hostilities, following three consecutive nights of US military strikes against Iran.In response to the growing instability, the US has reinstated a blockade of Iranian shipping and proposed a 20% security fee for vessels transiting the waterway.These events represent a direct threat to regional energy supply chains, further complicating logistics for operators navigating the Middle East.

Oil & Energy25d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: TTF Futures Hit 3-1/2 Month Peak on Supply Concerns Amid Renewed Hostilities

European natural gas futures gained more than 4.5% on Tuesday as the escalation in hostilities between the US and Iran and the renewed US naval blockade of Iranian ports dented hopes of a normalization of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.The front-month Dutch TTF contract rose 4.73% to 53.70 euros ($61.52) per megawatt-hour, while the UK front-month NBP contract gained 4.69% to 129.97 British pence ($1.74) per therm.Dutch TTF futures passed the 53 euros per MWh level for the first time in over three months and touched their highest levels since March 30, according to Trading Economics data."With Hormuz again effectively closed, the market is back to the critical situation it faced ahead of the ceasefire, with limited supply, very low storages and heatwaves across Europe causing additional demand," Mind Energy said in a note on Tuesday."Reduced French nuclear availability adds to the upside and the TTF front month contract continues up this morning, reaching the highest price level in more than three months," it added.The renewed conflict between Iran and the US has abruptly halted the gradual recovery in liquefied natural gas exports from the Middle East and raised fears of new disruptions to gas exports from the region, Trading Economics said.ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said that major producer Qatar delayed increasing LNG production due to safety concerns after one of its tankers was attacked."The latest events will make it increasingly difficult for Europe to refill its storage facilities heading into the northern hemisphere winter. Current storage levels sit at 52%, well below the normal seasonal level of 67%," according to ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes.The US Central Command on Monday said it will recommence the blockade of maritime traffic entering and exiting Iranian ports from 4pm ET Tuesday. This follows an initial US blockade from April 13 to June 18.President Trump said that the US will serve as the "guardian" of the Strait of Hormuz, while Central Command continues a sustained campaign of strikes against Iranian military targets to degrade their ability to threaten commercial traffic.According to media reports, the US has launched more strikes on Iran, with explosions reported in Bushehr, Bandar Abbas, Mahshahr, and Abadan, while Iran retaliated by attacking US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, and two oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.The ongoing Middle East conflict and delays in major projects have pushed an anticipated liquefied natural gas supply glut back by a year, with oversupply now projected in 2028, according to an analysis by BloombergNEF Tuesday.A global LNG supply surplus is expected to peak in 2031-2032, with many new projects likely to come online, according to BNEF's global LNG outlook. Last year's report had projected a glut from 2027."Europe is looking vulnerable heading through the injection season, with storage just 52% full, well below the 5-year average of 68%. JKM's continued premium to TTF is prompting LNG cargoes to be redirected to Asia, leaving Europe tighter," research firm ING said in a note.

Oil & Energy25d ago

Intermap Partnering With Saudi Arabia to Expand Access to Geospatial Terrain Data

Intermap Technologies (IMP.TO) has partnered with Saudi Arabia's first national Earth observation data platform, NSG UP42.Through the platform, users in Saudi Arabia can access Intermap's services that provide detailed 3D representations of terrain and surface features across large geographic areas. The AI-ready terrain data will help users turn the information into "actionable" intelligence for infrastructure, flood risk, energy and national development planning, a statement said.

$IMP.TO

Oil & Energy25d ago

El Nino to Have Impacts Spanning Renewables, Logistics, Gas Demand

The likely formation of strong El Nino conditions in the last quarter of 2026 is likely to have wide-ranging impacts across the energy sector, from renewables to gas demand, Wood Mackenize's Vice Chair for the Americas Ed Crooks said last week.The El Nino's warming of ocean waters due to a slowing of east-to-west trade winds in the Pacific Ocean can lead to heatwaves and drought in places, and colder temperatures and heavy rain in others. The effects tend to be most acutely observed in the Americas.In the US, the typical characteristics are milder, drier winters in the north and in Canada and above-average rainfall in the southeast.Both wind and solar output tend to be affected by changing cloud cover, wind speeds, precipitation and snow melting, the article said.The 2023-24 El Nino forced the Panama Canal Authority to restrict ship sizes due to a drop in water levels forcing some shippers to resort to alternative, longer routes. The authority has since invested in water-saving measures whose effectiveness the next El Nino will reveal.Elsewhere, in China and India, the same prior El Nino caused a sharp drop in hydropower generation, underscoring the scope of the impacts.Wood Mackenzie's team foresees warmer-than-normal weather conditions in the Southern Hemisphere summer at the end of the year and a milder US and Canada winter with a cooler southern and Mexican tier.Conditions are expected to be very wet for the southern US and Mexico, the Middle East, North Africa and Asia, especially in China. Equatorial South America and South Asia are likely to experience dry weather, the article said.Solar output is likely to be stronger in the US east of the Rockies, in Iberia and in the Middle East in the autumn. The outlook for solar is bearish overall with the biggest impact seen in the south and west of the US.The greater likelihood of a milder winter in the northern US and possibly Europe will weigh on demand for natural gas.Such conditions could be a blessing for Europe as some analysts voice concerns that it will struggle to refill the reserves it relies on each winter as the US and Iran return to fighting and as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz appears to have stalled again.

Oil & Energy25d ago

Brent Crude Futures Hit $87 per Barrel as US-Iran Conflict Escalates

Oil & Energy25d ago

Wood Mackenzie Sees Two-Year 2025-26 Decline in Asian LNG Demand

Wood Mackenzie expects Asian Pacific liquefied natural gas (LNG) demand will fall to 257 million tons (Mt) in 2026, down from 268 Mt in 2025 and 278 Mt in 2024 as Middle East instability restricts supply and drives up spot prices.This second year of decline stems from supply tightening in the Middle East, which has elevated spot prices and forced regional importers to prioritize fuel switching and supply diversification, the analysts noted on Monday.South Asia faces severe impacts as high prices lead to demand curtailment and industrial disruption.India is experiencing gas allocation shifts, urea production cuts, and a transition to alternative fuels like propane and naphtha. Pakistan returned to the spot market in April 2026 and Bangladeshi demand has been stable despite high costs.In contrast, Southeast Asian demand is forecast to rise from 27 Mt in 2025 to 31 Mt in 2026, driven by power sector developments.Indonesia and Malaysia show demand growth from data centers and energy transition policies. Conversely, Thailand and Singapore remain exposed to spot price volatility.South Korea faces supply risks due to damage at the Qatar Ras Laffan Train 6 facility, while Taiwan is replacing Qatari supply shortfalls primarily through spot market purchases, it said.Wood Mackenzie expects a recovery in regional demand to 279 Mt by 2027 and 297 Mt by 2028, contingent on the stabilization of geopolitical risks and global spot pricing.

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Oil & Energy25d ago

US Natural Gas Nears 2027 Bottom Before Multi-Year Bull Market, TPH Says

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