Natural gas faces growing downside pressure, oil continues to draw support from geopolitical tensions, and electricity markets remain firm on seasonal demand, EBW Analytics said in a Sunday note.
Natural gas fell below $3 per million British thermal units as Freeport LNG scheduled late-summer maintenance and a third straight bearish Energy Information Administration storage report accelerated weakness expected later this summer.
Despite slightly hotter weekend forecasts, softer liquefied natural gas demand, limited southern heat, rising production and bearish technical signals continue to point to additional downside over the next seven to 10 days, according to EBW Analytics.
Freeport LNG appeared to keep only one processing train offline, easing concerns that the entire three-train facility would shut. Even so, weaker feedgas demand continues to weigh on the market, EBW Analytics said.
Lower 48 natural gas production climbed to its highest level so far in July as Permian output strengthened, while storage reached 185 billion cubic feet above the five-year average.
Technical indicators now suggest prices could test the low $2.80s/MMBtu, according to EBW Analytics.
EBW Analytics expects medium-term pressure to persist as Permian infrastructure lifts supply, few new liquefied natural gas export projects enter service and El Nino favors milder weather.
However, subdued production could slow selling pressure over the next 30 to 45 days, according to the note.
National electricity demand increased after the Fourth of July holiday as modeled weekly loads rose 4.1%, lifting power-sector natural gas consumption by 1.3 Bcf/d from the previous week, according to EBW Analytics.
Day-ahead on-peak electricity prices remained elevated at $90.21 per megawatt-hour in PJM West and $72.41/MWh in ISO New England, while stronger wind and solar generation limited ERCOT North prices to $26.10/MWh, EBW Analytics said.
Near-term heat through Wednesday and Thursday could boost power-sector natural gas demand, although mild South Central weather may cap gains at about 2.2 Bcf/d, according to EBW Analytics.
Meanwhile, market participants await PJM's July 14 capacity auction results, with clearing prices widely expected near the $325/MW-day ceiling as electricity demand continues to outpace new supply, EBW Analytics said.
Oil gained support after US-Iran military exchanges raised supply concerns, EBW said.
Seasonal demand continues to improve, but US commercial crude inventories increased for the first time in 11 weeks. EBW Analytics still expects oil prices to trend lower into late 2026 despite near-term geopolitical support.
The market has already absorbed months of supply disruption preparations, while rising global production is expected to outpace demand growth.
Additional Strait of Hormuz restrictions would likely affect prompt cargoes first, before alternative supplies gradually fill the gap, EBW Analytics said.
Refined products remain comparatively tight after Russia's distillate export ban lifted European crack spreads to four-year highs, while record US fuel exports continue to reduce domestic inventories, according to EBW Analytics.