International
Economists Say Softer Underlying Inflation Supports BoC Hold Through Year-End
Canadian inflation eased annually in June, led by lower gasoline prices, while underlying price pressures remained contained despite temporary FIFA World Cup-related effects, according to CIBC Economics after Monday's release of the consumer price index data.Annual inflation eased to 2.8% in June from 3.2% in May, slightly below the 2.9% consensus forecast, said CIBC. Excluding gasoline, CPI inflation was unchanged at 2.2% year over year.Excluding food and energy, the annual pace of prices remained "modest" at 1.8% in June, said Desjardins in a note.The increase in inflation, excluding food and energy, appears partly attributable to temporary World Cup-related price pressures, which had a limited impact on the Bank of Canada's preferred core measures, added Royce Mendes of Desjardins. CPI-median and CPI-trim rose on the month 0.09% and 0.05% in June, respectively, bringing both year-over-year rates below 2% for the first time since 2020.Traveller accommodation prices accelerated in June, rising 10.1% annually compared with 2.5% in May, driven by higher costs in Ontario and British Columbia, particularly in Toronto and Vancouver during World Cup events, said Statistics Canada in Monday's CPI. Passenger vehicle rental prices also increased 6.8% annually amid stronger travel demand.Headline inflation remains above target, but underlying price pressures are softening and losing momentum. While higher oil and energy prices, including a recent uptick in gasoline prices, pose some upside risk, excess economic slack continues to weigh on underlying inflation, added economists."This will keep the BoC comfortably on the sidelines, where we expect them to stay through at least the rest of this year," wrote Benjamin Reitzes at Bank of Montreal Capital Markets (BMO) in a note after CPI data.CIBC, Desjardins, TD Economics and KPMG Canada all predict Canada's central bank to be on hold at least for this year.Recent oil price gains are likely to offset the drag from lower gasoline prices in the July CPI. However, with oil prices still below recent peaks, TD said it continues to expect Canadian inflation to have peaked this year."It looks like we'll be stuck with headline inflation at 3% and core inflation at 2% for some time yet," wrote Ali Jaffery, chief economist at KPMG Canada. "The Bank of Canada can live with that as long as inflation expectations remain manageable, which we expect they will."
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