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Home Sales in Calgary Resume Downward Trend in May, National Bank Says
Home sales in Calgary returned to their downward trend in May, according to a note published Monday by National Bank of Canada.Based on data from the Calgary Real Estate Board (CREB) for the Calgary economic region, National Bank estimates that seasonally adjusted home sales dropped 4.2% from April to May, marking the third decline in four months following a 5.3% increase in April."Although sales have seen some positive monthly fluctuations since the spring of 2025, the overall trend in Calgary's real estate market undeniably remains downward," Daren King, senior economist at National Bank of Canada, wrote in the note.He attributed the lack of momentum in the housing market partly to trade and geopolitical uncertainty, as well as a recent rise in fixed-rate mortgage rates caused by higher inflation. However, transaction volumes remain above their historical average and the region's job market continues to perform well compared with other major Canadian cities, which could support an eventual rebound.On the supply side, National Bank estimates that new listings declined 2.8% in May following a 5.6% increase in April. Active listings rose 3.2% during the month and reached their highest level since March 2020.King said the increase in supply reflects both the downward trend in sales over the past two years and historically strong activity in the new construction market. Housing starts and new home completions reached record levels, while the stock of unsold new properties climbed to its highest level since 2020. Market conditions, as measured by the new-listings-to-sales ratio, loosened during the month but remained balanced on a historical basis.On a year-over-year basis, home sales in May fell 13.8% from May 2025, reaching their lowest level for that period of the year since 2020, although sales remained above their historical average for the month.Active listings increased 4.2% from a year earlier and were at their highest level for the period since 2019.For the first five months of 2026, cumulative sales were down 10.8% compared with the same period in 2025, representing the slowest start to a year since 2020.Data for the City of Calgary showed that sales declined 15.5% in May from a year earlier. The drop was steeper than the regional average and was driven in part by a 29.8% decline in condo sales. Sales of single-family homes fell 6.4%, while attached home sales declined 20.4%.On the supply side, the inventory of homes for sale was stable year over year. The benchmark price index declined 3.0% from May 2025, an improvement from the 3.5% contraction recorded in the previous month, King said.
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