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Rebound in Canada's May Retail Sales Expected, But Lower Gas Prices Could Cause June Decline, CIBC Says

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Canadian retail sales are expected to have increased monthly in May, though this will likely overstate the underlying strength as higher gasoline prices boosted nominal sales, according to CIBC Economics in a Friday note ahead of this week's data.

Retail sales are seen rising 1% month over month in May, said CIBC ahead of Thursday's Statistics Canada data.

The advance estimate for June, also due Thursday, could point to a decline in retail activity, with much of the weakness likely reflecting lower gasoline prices rather than a broad-based slowdown in consumer spending, the bank said.

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